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YieldBasis · pool economics and simulator trust

The study text and chart tables are available below. Interactive charts load when the data are ready.

The proposal and eight findings

The proposal reduces the money supplied to the pool.

This funding is called financing. The proposal also changes how outside prices guide trading fees. It changes how those prices guide re-pegs, moves of the pool’s central price.

The tests separate the financing cut from the pool’s performance. The YB position, a holder of pool shares and debt, borrows to buy its shares. The debt uses crvUSD, the stablecoin used as cash in these pools. Interest on that debt funds donations, capital supplied to the pool.

The pool concentrates trading capacity around its central price, called price_scale. The proposal concerns WETH, the token form of ETH used in these pools. The team’s forum post describes the proposal in full.

LevAMM is the contract that manages borrowing and pool shares. Its fee appears in the table.

Current and proposed settings for the WETH comparison
SettingDeployed current settingsProposal
Donations each year, % of pool value5%About 1.2%
Recorded profit protected from spending on price adjustments45%About 42.9%
LevAMM fee1.3%1.5%
Prices used for fees and price adjustmentsThe pool’s rules based on its traded pricesMessages carrying prices from outside the pool

LP/xyk measures growth beyond a reference pool after the donation charge. The measure uses market prices to value each share.

The reference pool follows the same prices and charges no fees. Its trades keep the product of its two asset quantities constant. Settings and conventions defines the yearly growth rate and each group of settings.

Eight findings

Some common beliefs about these pools do not hold up. Common misunderstandings lists them, each with its evidence.

Where to start

For the findings, start with the proposal and its parts. Then read financing, the profit floor and detachment.

For the foundations, start with what a pool share is worth. Continue through harvesting, trading losses and fees, simulation and rebuilt histories. Then read the proposal results.

Settings and conventions

Each comparison names the rules, funding and activity used in the test.

A group of settings specifies the pool’s price rules and financing, the money supplied to the pool. The profit gate decides whether the pool may move its central price. A re-peg is such a move.

Donations supply outside capital to the pool. Reserved profit is the share of recorded profit protected from spending. LevAMM is the contract that manages borrowing and pool shares.

Deployed WETH reference settings

SettingMeaning
Pool and historyWETH proposal tests on the tuning or older histories. Some tests start from named observed WETH states.
FinancingWith a simulated position, annual donations are 5% of pool value. Reserved profit is 45%. The LevAMM fee is 1.3%. Recorded-flow tests use the donation coins and operations stated with each test.
GateThe deployed floor protects cumulative recorded profit.
Used forThe reference settings for proposal tests.

Observed-state gate comparison

SettingMeaning
Pool and historyThe named WETH or Bitcoin pool and starting date.
FinancingThe financing and fees attached to that pool. Only the settings named by the experiment change.
GateKept, removed or reset, as stated.
Used forGate tests starting from observed states in the re-peg chapter.

Current price rule with shared financing settings

SettingMeaning
Pool and historyNamed observed WETH starting states or rebuilt WETH price histories.
FinancingReserved profit is 42.91%. The LevAMM fee is 1.50%. Each result states the donation rate.
GateThe deployed gate, unless the test explicitly resets the floor.
Used forThe WETH test changing financing alone. Also, detachment scans and reruns of histories. The control restores annual donations to 5% when comparing growth with settings that reduce detachment.

Proposal

SettingMeaning
Pool and historyWETH tuning and older histories, or the named observed pool state.
FinancingWhere financing is simulated, annual donations are 1.1976%. Reserved profit is 42.913386%. The LevAMM fee is 1.50%.
GateThe deployed gate unless the experiment changes it.
Used forThe full proposal in tests of its parts and of different time periods. Recorded-flow tests state whether donated coins stay fixed.

Proposal with a resettable floor

SettingMeaning
Pool and historyRebuilt WETH histories.
FinancingThe shared reserved-profit and LevAMM settings above. Each result states the donation rate.
GateAn allowed move may spend below the protected floor. The rule then lowers that floor. The absolute floor remains.
Used forDetachment scans and comparisons of reduced detachment, repairs, quotes and funded attachment. Each test names the original or faster price averages.

What “financing only” changes

A financing-only test keeps current price rules and changes the funding settings. With a simulated YB position, the changes cover donations, reserved profit and the LevAMM fee. The YB position owns pool shares and owes debt.

With recorded activity, the test scales the supplied donation coins and changes reserved profit. Recorded LevAMM operations keep their fees.

Histories and supplied activity

HistoryDates or length
Live pools: actual pools and observed setting changes26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026 UTC
History used to choose settings2025-03-24 to 30 September 2026
Rebuilt WETH histories for detachment tests556 days, from a common starting template

Older-history tests state their dates beside the results. UTC is the common time standard used here.

Arbitrage means trading to profit from price differences. These input choices answer different questions about the same pool rules.

Yearly rates

First divide final value by starting value. The natural logarithm of that ratio is the log change. To obtain the yearly rate, multiply by 100 and divide by elapsed years. A year contains 365 days in these calculations.

Differences between yearly rates use percentage points per year, abbreviated pp/yr. A positive proposal-minus-control difference means faster growth under the proposal for the named measure. M, LP/xyk, internal accounting and the holder’s remaining wealth measure different outcomes.

The post’s claimed LP/xyk advantage is +1.65 pp/yr over current settings in the original test. That test uses the tuning history and arbitrage-only activity. The claim provides a useful scale for other LP/xyk differences.

Growth of the YB position in ETH needs its own named measure. Internal accounting and shares valued at market prices also need their own measures. ETH is the native asset of the Ethereum network.

Trade costs in basis points use different units from yearly return differences. Event probabilities, repair percentages and the live harvesting and curvature totals also use different units.

Whose value is measured

A constant-product pool trades while keeping the product of its asset quantities constant. The reference follows the same market prices. BTC denotes Bitcoin.

An ETH amount measures a change in wealth. A rate in pp/yr measures a difference in yearly growth rates.

When a price-gap stall starts

The pool’s central price is called price_scale. A price-gap stall occurs when its distance from the market price exceeds 5% for at least 24 uninterrupted hours. The rule uses the absolute percentage distance and checks each blockchain block.

“Both attached” means neither compared pool has such a stall in the window. Brief gaps can still occur. Noise tests, September gate tests, live-chart shading and funded-attachment groups use this rule.

When trading depth is seriously reduced

Trading depth is the capacity available for small trades. The detachment chapter compares depth at the market with an equally funded pool centred on that price. Both pools use the same curve shape.

“Serious” means that less than 75.00% of the reference depth remains. The episode-counting rule differs from the price-gap stall rule.

What uncertainty means

A middle outcome range describes differences across histories. A confidence interval describes uncertainty in a stated mean or probability. A standard error also describes uncertainty in an estimate.

Overlapping windows share market moves. Their effective count estimates how much independent market history the test contains. Intervals from rebuilt histories describe variation obtained from the original price history.

A. How pool shares earn returns

A pool share’s value depends on prices, trading and outside funding.

A1 What a pool share is worth

Market value tells us what a pool share is worth at prices outside the pool.

A liquidity pool holds cash and an asset whose price can change. An LP, a liquidity provider, owns a share of both. Value the coins at prices outside the pool, then divide by the number of shares.

LP/xyk measures growth beyond a reference pool after the donation charge. Donations are capital supplied from outside the pool. The reference pool starts with equal values in cash and the risky asset. It charges no fees and keeps the product of its asset quantities constant.

Measure: LP/xyk, in percentage points per year after the donation charge.

Compared: An actual LP share with the fee-free constant-product reference pool.

Same for both: The market-price history.

Higher means: More growth beyond the reference pool after the donation charge.

M divides market value per share by the reference pool’s price factor. LP/xyk takes M’s yearly log growth and subtracts the donation charge. First divide final value by starting value. The natural logarithm of that ratio gives the log change.

Measuring each share separates existing holders’ gains from new deposits. Both policies share the reference pool when compared on the same dates. That reference therefore cancels from their growth difference. Different donation charges still change their LP/xyk difference.

More detail

The formula calculates the market value of each share compared with the reference pool.

M = (x + P·y) ÷ (2√P) ÷ LP supply
SymbolMeaning
xCash held
yRisky asset held
PThe risky asset’s price outside the pool

To calculate LP/xyk, first divide final M by starting M. Take the natural logarithm of that ratio. Multiply by 100 and divide by elapsed years. Subtract the realised yearly log charge for donated shares over the same period.

A worked example

This example keeps the number of LP shares fixed. crvUSD is the cash asset. ETH is the asset whose price changes.

At the startAmount
Cash1,000,000 crvUSD
ETH held500 ETH
Price of ETH2,000 crvUSD per ETH
Total pool value2,000,000 crvUSD

At a final price of 8,000 crvUSD per ETH, compare the following values.

InvestmentFinal value, crvUSD
Fee-free reference pool4,000,000
Example pool, with the same share count4,200,000

The example pool beats the reference pool by 5%, before any donation deduction.

More detail
Investment or differenceFinal value, crvUSD
Holding the opening coins5,000,000
Fee-free reference pool4,000,000
Shortfall of the reference pool against holding1,000,000

That shortfall is called impermanent loss. M records the example pool’s 5% gain over the reference. M’s absolute level depends on the chosen unit for shares.

Market value and internal accounting

Market value prices the actual coins at prices outside the pool. Virtual price is the pool’s separate accounting index for each share. The invariant, a value identifying the pool’s reserve curve, helps determine that index. The calculation also uses price_scale, the pool’s central price.

The accounting index can stay high while the share’s market value grows more slowly than the fee-free reference pool.

Two ways to value a pool share
MeasureHow the value is calculatedQuestion answered
Market value per LP shareExternal market priceWhat the assets are worth outside the pool
Virtual priceCapital from the invariant, adjusted using price_scaleThe accounting index protected by the spending rule

LP/xyk uses market value and subtracts the donation charge. Virtual price uses the invariant per share. Donations can support the accounting budget. They supply outside capital rather than earnings from the pool.

More detail

Moving price_scale changes virtual price without changing the coins’ total market value at that instant. A burn removes shares from supply. Burning donated shares at the same time can raise the value of each remaining share. Later trades can change market value.

The profit floor limits the accounting change.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

A2 Where a pool share’s return comes from

A pool share’s return comes from price changes, pool operations and outside funding.

An LP share represents ownership of part of the pool. LP/xyk measures its growth beyond a reference pool after the donation charge. The same contribution names and colours appear throughout the site.

The reference pool charges no fees and follows the same prices. Its trades keep the product of its asset quantities constant.

Contribution to LP/xykWhat it measures
HarvestingThe gain from restoring chosen asset proportions at current market prices.
Price directionThe effect of holding more or less than half the pool’s value in the risky asset.
Approximation remainderThe difference needed to recover the exact return on the assets held.
Pool operations, including feesChanges caused by trades, deposits, withdrawals and removal of shares.
Subtract the donation chargeRemove the outside capital supplied through donated shares.

Add harvesting, direction, the approximation remainder and the effect of pool operations. Then subtract the donation charge to obtain LP/xyk.

Price moves change the value of coins already held. Harvesting and direction approximate that change compared with the reference pool. The remainder makes the calculation exact.

Pool operations then change value per share. Each operation’s contribution includes its fees. Subtracting the donation charge removes the outside capital supplied.

Arbitrage traders profit from price differences. Their trades are one group of pool operations. Customer activity supplies native fees: fees from users’ trades and other operations. Financing supplies outside capital to the pool.

The live-return chart uses the pool’s changing holdings. The simple formula uses only the proportions at the start.

More detail

For each market-price move, value the existing coins at the new price. Subtract the reference pool’s growth to obtain the return above that reference.

  • For harvesting, multiply the risky asset’s share of pool value by the cash share. Multiply half that product by the squared log-price move.
  • For direction, subtract half from the risky share. Multiply that difference by the log-price move.
  • The remainder closes the gap to the exact return on the coins held.
  • Add the contributions across blockchain blocks and convert the sum to a yearly rate.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

A3 What contributed to the live pools’ returns

In the live pools, fees almost fully repay the losses from trades at outdated prices.

Arbitrageurs trade to profit from differences between market and pool prices. Their trades can take value from the pool before fees. That loss is called LVR. Fees paid by these traders repay almost all of it in the live pools.

LP/xyk measures growth of each pool share beyond a reference pool after the donation charge. The reference pool charges no fees and follows the same prices. Its trades keep the product of its asset quantities constant.

Measure: Each contribution to LP/xyk, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The selected live pool with its fee-free constant-product reference pool.

Same for both: The selected period and observed market prices.

Higher means: A larger contribution to LP/xyk.

  • WETH grows faster than the reference after the donation charge: LP/xyk is +4.48 pp/yr over the full study period.
  • The losses and fees almost cancel. Arbitrage trades contribute −18.78 pp/yr before fees. Those traders’ fees contribute +18.33 pp/yr.
  • WETH’s LP/xyk deducts 4.98 pp/yr for capital supplied through donated shares.
Live study periodDate
Start26 May 2026 UTC
End1 October 2026 UTC

Expressing returns as yearly rates makes different periods comparable. The conversion does not predict that the same return will continue.

Each bar shows one contribution to WETH LP/xyk, in percentage points per year. LP/xyk measures growth per share above the same-price reference pool, after the donation charge. The final bar adds the contributions. User-activity contributions already include their fees.

The selected period starts on 26 May 2026. It ends on 1 October 2026.

Monthly gains or losses from holding risky assets are much larger than the post’s claimed gain. That contribution changes sign. The trading-loss and fee bars nearly cancel. The result from coins held changes with the amount of risky assets held.

For tBTC, the contribution from price direction is −13.73 pp/yr in June and +14.34 pp/yr in July. Price direction therefore accounts for a large part of the measured return in those months.

Harvesting and user activity

Native activity means customer trading and other user operations. Over the live WETH period, this activity supplies +1.95 pp/yr in fees. Including the effects of execution, its contribution is +1.25 pp/yr. That last figure already includes the fees.

The contribution from user activity already includes its fees.
PoolHarvesting after arbitrage losses and fees, pp/yrFees from user activity, pp/yrUser activity including fees, pp/yrDonation charge, pp/yrContribution from price direction, pp/yr
WETH+2.95+1.95+1.25−4.98+0.86
WBTC+2.00+0.74+0.43−0.62−5.12
cbBTC+1.95+1.05+1.05−0.57−0.31
tBTC+1.83+0.54+0.27−0.52−4.84
  • Harvesting after arbitrage adds the fees to harvesting and subtracts losses from trades at outdated prices.
  • The user-activity contribution adds its fees to its effect on execution.
  • Total LP/xyk also includes price direction, other operations and the donation charge.
More detail
Native activityMeaning
Customer swapsCustomer trades between the pool’s assets
LT deposits and withdrawalsChanges in capital using the YieldBasis liquidity token
VirtualPool operationsOperations through a contract that routes trades

The study groups contracts with unknown purposes with arbitrage. Changing that grouping changes the split but preserves total return. Each chart bar measures its group’s contribution to the value of each LP share.

“Other operations” includes VirtualPool activity, creation of donated shares, maintenance and remaining liquidity operations.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

Chart data · WETH · Full study period · 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+3.40
Price direction+0.86
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−18.78
Fees from arbitrageurs+18.33
Price adjustments and share removal+4.40
Customer trades, including fees+0.22
LT deposits, including fees+0.96
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.06
Other operations, including fees+0.001
Donation charge−4.98
LP/xyk+4.48
Chart data · WETH · June · 1 June 2026 to 1 July 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+5.49
Price direction+3.63
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−30.94
Fees from arbitrageurs+31.94
Price adjustments and share removal+3.65
Customer trades, including fees+0.52
LT deposits, including fees+1.35
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.09
Other operations, including fees+0.001
Donation charge−4.98
LP/xyk+10.76
Chart data · WETH · July · 1 July 2026 to 1 August 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.55
Price direction+0.34
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−12.05
Fees from arbitrageurs+11.57
Price adjustments and share removal+4.42
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits, including fees+0.50
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.02
Other operations, including fees+0.002
Donation charge−4.98
LP/xyk+2.40
Chart data · WETH · August · 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+3.00
Price direction−0.28
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−19.53
Fees from arbitrageurs+17.86
Price adjustments and share removal+5.13
Customer trades, including fees+0.24
LT deposits, including fees+0.31
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.05
Other operations, including fees+0.002
Donation charge−4.98
LP/xyk+1.80
Chart data · WETH · September · 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.88
Price direction−0.20
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−15.31
Fees from arbitrageurs+14.74
Price adjustments and share removal+5.03
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits, including fees+1.90
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.09
Other operations, including fees−0.003
Donation charge−4.96
LP/xyk+4.18
Chart data · WETH · May · 26 May 2026 to 1 June 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.12
Price direction+0.85
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−6.16
Fees from arbitrageurs+5.55
Price adjustments and share removal+1.03
Customer trades, including fees+0.80
LT deposits, including fees+0.05
LT withdrawals, including fees+0.03
Other operations, including fees+0.006
Donation charge−5.02
LP/xyk−0.75
Chart data · WBTC · Full study period · 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.18
Price direction−5.12
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−8.28
Fees from arbitrageurs+8.10
Price adjustments and share removal+0.57
Customer trades, including fees+0.02
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.41
Other operations, including fees−0.001
Donation charge−0.62
LP/xyk−2.73
Chart data · WBTC · May · 26 May 2026 to 1 June 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.61
Price direction−1.21
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−2.05
Fees from arbitrageurs+1.92
Price adjustments and share removal+0.11
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.22
Other operations, including fees+0.002
Donation charge−0.41
LP/xyk+0.20
Chart data · WBTC · June · 1 June 2026 to 1 July 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+3.60
Price direction−7.60
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−14.62
Fees from arbitrageurs+14.58
Price adjustments and share removal+0.35
Customer trades, including fees+0.13
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.54
Other operations, including fees+0.000
Donation charge−0.44
LP/xyk−3.46
Chart data · WBTC · July · 1 July 2026 to 1 August 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.56
Price direction+8.33
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−8.63
Fees from arbitrageurs+8.34
Price adjustments and share removal+0.44
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.11
Other operations, including fees−0.003
Donation charge−0.41
LP/xyk+9.75
Chart data · WBTC · August · 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.78
Price direction−13.49
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−6.89
Fees from arbitrageurs+6.54
Price adjustments and share removal+0.50
Customer trades, including fees−0.02
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.77
Other operations, including fees−0.001
Donation charge−0.78
LP/xyk−11.59
Chart data · WBTC · September · 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.92
Price direction−8.67
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−4.26
Fees from arbitrageurs+4.23
Price adjustments and share removal+1.10
Customer trades, including fees−0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.25
Other operations, including fees+0.000
Donation charge−0.92
LP/xyk−6.35
Chart data · cbBTC · Full study period · 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.22
Price direction−0.31
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−9.59
Fees from arbitrageurs+9.32
Price adjustments and share removal+0.55
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+1.04
Other operations, including fees−0.004
Donation charge−0.57
LP/xyk+2.67
Chart data · cbBTC · May · 26 May 2026 to 1 June 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.61
Price direction−1.19
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−2.10
Fees from arbitrageurs+1.98
Price adjustments and share removal+0.15
Customer trades, including fees+0.10
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.04
Other operations, including fees+0.005
Donation charge−0.41
LP/xyk+0.18
Chart data · cbBTC · June · 1 June 2026 to 1 July 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+3.56
Price direction−12.51
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−13.03
Fees from arbitrageurs+12.75
Price adjustments and share removal+0.34
Customer trades, including fees+0.02
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.14
Other operations, including fees+0.000
Donation charge−0.44
LP/xyk−9.17
Chart data · cbBTC · July · 1 July 2026 to 1 August 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.55
Price direction+13.41
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−8.26
Fees from arbitrageurs+7.96
Price adjustments and share removal+0.47
Customer trades, including fees+0.00
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.08
Other operations, including fees−0.003
Donation charge−0.41
LP/xyk+14.81
Chart data · cbBTC · August · 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.83
Price direction−3.15
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−7.49
Fees from arbitrageurs+7.07
Price adjustments and share removal+0.39
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.23
Other operations, including fees+0.001
Donation charge−0.46
LP/xyk−1.58
Chart data · cbBTC · September · 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.11
Price direction+0.81
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−11.20
Fees from arbitrageurs+11.07
Price adjustments and share removal+1.09
Customer trades, including fees−0.03
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+3.99
Other operations, including fees−0.014
Donation charge−0.98
LP/xyk+6.83
Chart data · tBTC · Full study period · 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+2.16
Price direction−4.84
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−7.82
Fees from arbitrageurs+7.49
Price adjustments and share removal+0.50
Customer trades, including fees+0.01
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.27
Other operations, including fees−0.003
Donation charge−0.52
LP/xyk−2.76
Chart data · tBTC · May · 26 May 2026 to 1 June 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.61
Price direction−1.28
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−2.06
Fees from arbitrageurs+1.89
Price adjustments and share removal+0.13
Customer trades, including fees+0.00
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.09
Other operations, including fees+0.005
Donation charge−0.41
LP/xyk−0.03
Chart data · tBTC · June · 1 June 2026 to 1 July 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+3.55
Price direction−13.73
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−12.78
Fees from arbitrageurs+12.27
Price adjustments and share removal+0.36
Customer trades, including fees+0.04
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.15
Other operations, including fees+0.000
Donation charge−0.44
LP/xyk−10.58
Chart data · tBTC · July · 1 July 2026 to 1 August 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.54
Price direction+14.34
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−8.60
Fees from arbitrageurs+8.22
Price adjustments and share removal+0.46
Customer trades, including fees+0.03
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.49
Other operations, including fees−0.013
Donation charge−0.42
LP/xyk+16.05
Chart data · tBTC · August · 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.77
Price direction−12.70
Approximation remainder+0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−6.52
Fees from arbitrageurs+6.12
Price adjustments and share removal+0.39
Customer trades, including fees−0.02
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.35
Other operations, including fees0.000
Donation charge−0.45
LP/xyk−11.05
Chart data · tBTC · September · 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026
Contribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
ContributionContribution to LP/xyk, pp/yr
Harvesting+1.93
Price direction−8.35
Approximation remainder0.000
Arbitrage trades before fees−4.53
Fees from arbitrageurs+4.47
Price adjustments and share removal+0.85
Customer trades, including fees−0.02
LT deposits and withdrawals, including fees+0.09
Other operations, including fees+0.001
Donation charge−0.80
LP/xyk−6.35

B. Rebalancing gains, trading losses and fees

Rebalancing earns gains that trading losses and fees can change.

B1 How rebalancing earns a gain

Restoring equal asset values earns extra growth compared with the reference pool.

Rebalancing means trading to restore chosen proportions of the assets. A portfolio holding equal values sells after price rises and buys after falls. Volatility harvesting is the return from restoring those proportions at current market prices.

The example compares rebalancing with holding the opening coins. The formula later compares growth with a different reference: a fee-free constant-product pool. That pool trades while keeping the product of its asset quantities constant.

LVR measures losses from trading at outdated pool prices. Reserve trades are the trades that rebalance the pool’s holdings. It compares them with execution at current market prices.

An illustrative rise and fall

Measure: Ending wealth, as a percentage of starting wealth.

Compared: Rebalancing after the rise with holding the opening coins.

Same for both: The illustrative price rise and fall.

Higher means: More wealth at the end of the example.

The example starts with equal values in cash and the risky asset. The asset price rises 10%, then the portfolio restores equal values. The price then falls 10% from its new level. A fall by the same percentage does not undo the rise.

Illustrative ending values
StrategyFinal value divided by starting value
Hold the starting coins0.9950
Rebalance after the rise0.9975

Rebalancing ends with more wealth: 99.75% of starting value, compared with 99.50% from holding the coins. The difference is 0.25% of starting value. This example illustrates the mechanism rather than estimating a YB outcome.

More detail

Measure: Log growth above the reference pool over the observed period.

Compared: Continuous rebalancing to equal values with the fee-free constant-product reference pool.

Same for both: The price history.

Higher means: More harvesting above that reference.

First divide final value by starting value. Take the natural logarithm of that ratio for the log change. The model rebalances continuously at current market prices. Its yearly log growth exceeds the square-root-price reference by annual price variance divided by 8.

The reference pool’s price factor follows the square root of the market price. For an observed period, the corresponding premium is QV divided by 8. QV sums squared log-price changes across blockchain blocks.

Convert that period’s total to a yearly rate before comparing returns. Beating the strategy of holding opening coins also depends on the final price.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

B2 Why outdated prices cost the pool money

Trading at outdated prices costs the pool value before fees.

An automated market maker, or AMM, trades under programmed rules. An arbitrageur trades to profit from price differences. The trader buys coins the pool offers too cheaply or sells coins the pool buys too dearly.

LVR is the loss from making reserve trades at outdated prices. It compares those trades with the same trades at current market prices. The measure excludes fees, which repay part of the loss.

Measure: Loss from execution, as a fraction of pool value before fees.

Compared: Reserve trades at outdated pool prices with the same trades at current market prices.

Same for both: The price moves.

Higher means: More LVR, the loss from trading at outdated prices.

More detail

A constant-product pool keeps the product of its two asset quantities constant. For a small price move, take the logarithm of the price ratio. Square that change and divide by 8.

The result approximates the execution loss as a fraction of pool value when the pool charges no fees. The comparison uses the same rebalance at the new market price.

Adding these losses across the period gives QV divided by 8. QV sums squared log-price changes. Divide by elapsed years for a yearly rate.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

B3 How fees repay the trading loss

Trading fees repay almost all the pool’s losses from trades at outdated prices.

Arbitrageurs trade to profit from differences between pool and market prices. LVR measures the pool’s loss on those trades before fees. Across the live pools, fees cover 95.8% to 97.9% of these losses.

Measure: Fees received, as a percentage of losses from arbitrage trades before fees.

Compared: Arbitrage fees with arbitrage execution losses for each live pool.

Same for both: The live study period.

Higher means: The fees repay more of the loss from outdated prices.

Study periodDate
Start26 May 2026
End1 October 2026

Why a fee creates a no-trade range

The typical fee in the live WETH period is about 1.5% of trade value. A buyer needs a price advantage larger than the buying fee to profit. A seller needs an advantage larger than the selling fee.

The fee band is the range where those advantages cannot cover fees. The range extends on both sides of the market price. Traders keep only the extra price advantage beyond the fee once a move crosses that range.

Execution loss equals the fees received plus the trader’s remaining profit. When moves between blockchain blocks are small compared with the fee, that remaining profit is small. Fees therefore repay most of LVR.

Measure: Profit after fees divided by fees paid, expressed as a percentage.

Compared: The fee-band model’s estimate with the observed pool result.

Same for both: The live study period.

Higher means: Traders retain more profit for each unit of fee paid.

Profit retained by arbitrageurs after fees
PoolModel: profit after fees / fees paid, %Observed: profit after fees / fees paid, %
WETH8.02.5
WBTC4.22.2
cbBTC4.43.0
tBTC4.44.4
More detail

The model lets the gap between pool and market prices move with the market. Arbitrage then pushes the gap back at either fee boundary. The accumulated corrections represent reserve trades.

On the Bitcoin histories, simulated arbitrageurs retain 4.7% to 4.9% of fees paid. Identified live bots retain 2.5% to 3.6%. The simulator assumes immediate trading without transaction costs or competition.

The table uses a broader arbitrage group that includes contracts with unknown purposes.

More detail: limits of the fee-band model

The shortcut cannot resolve the difference between proposed and current rules. It compares the proposal-minus-current arbitrage return after fees with the simulator’s measured difference.

PeriodShortcut error, % of the simulator’s measured difference
7 days74%
30 days85%

The shortcut explains why fees almost offset execution losses. Its errors are too large to resolve the difference between the policies.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

B4 What prices and starting holdings explain

A simple formula explains most of the WETH pool’s return, given the recorded market prices.

WETH is the token form of ETH used in these pools. LP/xyk measures growth beyond a reference pool after the donation charge. The reference pool charges no fees and follows the same prices. Its trades keep the product of its two asset quantities constant.

Measure: LP/xyk, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The formula’s estimate with the observed WETH pool return.

Same for both: The starting states, selected periods and recorded market prices.

Higher means: A higher estimated return.

Accuracy means that the estimate is close to the observed value. The formula uses price moves and the starting share of value held in the risky asset. It adds harvesting to the contribution from price direction.

Skill measures how much prediction error a method removes. The comparison here uses the squared error from predicting zero LP/xyk. Squared error is the square of the difference between the predicted and observed values.

The formula removes most of that error for WETH. Its improvement is strong over a week but weaker over a month for the combined Bitcoin wrapper pools.

Improvement over predicting zero LP/xyk
Pools and formulaPeriodSquared error removed, %
WETH, simple formula7 days64.6%
WETH, simple formula30 days87.1%
Bitcoin wrapper pools, full formula7 days75.6%
Bitcoin wrapper pools, full formula30 days21.9%

A wrapper token represents another asset on this blockchain. The prediction-accuracy page explains the scoring comparison.

At equal starting asset values, the contribution from price direction vanishes. The formula then gives QV divided by 8. QV sums squared log-price changes. This estimates LP/xyk when the other return contributions largely offset each other.

More detail
  • For harvesting, multiply the risky asset’s starting share of pool value by the cash share. Multiply half that product by QV.
  • For direction, subtract half from the starting risky share. Multiply that difference by the period’s log-price change.
  • Add these contributions above the square-root-price reference. Multiply by 100 and divide by elapsed years to express the estimate in pp/yr.

The simple formula explains most of the WETH result. Each point compares estimated and observed LP/xyk for a 7-day period. Both axes use percentage points per year. The point’s tooltip gives its starting date.

The diagonal marks equal estimated and observed returns. The formula’s parameters were not fitted to these outcomes.

The return equation also distinguishes LVR, losses from trading at outdated prices. Arbitrage fees are the fees paid by traders profiting from price differences.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

Chart data · WETH: the formula estimate and observed return · 7-day periods
LP/xyk over the selected period, pp/yr
Start dateFormula estimate of LP/xyk, pp/yrObserved LP/xyk, pp/yr
2026-06-02+10.28+29.62
2026-06-03+10.28+29.75
2026-06-04+10.16+28.80
2026-06-05+9.24+21.91
2026-06-06+6.41+11.69
2026-06-07+5.16+4.74
2026-06-08+4.23+3.67
2026-06-09+3.80+1.16
2026-06-10+3.57+2.44
2026-06-11+3.49+1.32
2026-06-12+3.36+0.78
2026-06-13+3.32+0.62
2026-06-14+3.49+1.20
2026-06-15+3.40+0.91
2026-06-16+3.32+5.00
2026-06-17+3.24+5.20
2026-06-18+3.42+4.83
2026-06-19+4.07+6.68
2026-06-20+4.93+10.15
2026-06-21+4.87+9.84
2026-06-22+4.99+10.24
2026-06-23+5.26+9.37
2026-06-24+5.17+6.33
2026-06-25+4.86+7.51
2026-06-26+4.36+5.23
2026-06-27+3.60+2.41
2026-06-28+3.66+2.45
2026-06-29+3.60+2.89
2026-06-30+3.50+4.12
2026-07-01+3.55+5.14
2026-07-02+3.34+2.99
2026-07-03+2.98+2.81
2026-07-04+2.89+2.71
2026-07-05+2.78+2.57
2026-07-06+2.68+1.58
2026-07-07+2.53+1.57
2026-07-08+2.48+0.94
2026-07-09+2.42+2.31
2026-07-10+2.46+2.95
2026-07-11+2.49+2.28
2026-07-12+2.39+2.69
2026-07-13+2.39+3.80
2026-07-14+2.38+1.65
2026-07-15+2.21+1.70
2026-07-16+2.12+0.05
2026-07-17+2.02−0.61
2026-07-18+1.90+1.71
2026-07-19+1.87+1.25
2026-07-20+1.87+2.03
2026-07-21+1.84+1.38
2026-07-22+1.98+0.87
2026-07-23+2.21+2.13
2026-07-24+2.20+2.81
2026-07-25+2.23+1.84
2026-07-26+2.29+2.05
2026-07-27+2.32+1.02
2026-07-28+2.11+1.87
2026-07-29+1.94+2.20
2026-07-30+1.66+1.97
2026-07-31+1.58+0.63
2026-08-01+1.51+0.38
2026-08-02+1.41+0.67
2026-08-03+1.26+0.67
2026-08-04+1.20+0.23
2026-08-05+1.10−1.80
2026-08-06+1.07−1.33
2026-08-07+1.05−0.43
2026-08-08+0.94−1.83
2026-08-09+0.93−2.84
2026-08-10+0.92−3.54
2026-08-11+0.86−3.52
2026-08-12+0.81−2.28
2026-08-13+2.85−3.10
2026-08-14+3.63−0.88
2026-08-15+5.09+0.32
2026-08-16+6.17+5.53
2026-08-17+6.95+7.98
2026-08-18+7.64+9.15
2026-08-19+8.16+10.57
2026-08-20+6.32+11.04
2026-08-21+5.88+9.94
2026-08-22+4.84+9.16
2026-08-23+3.81+5.12
2026-08-24+3.42+2.63
2026-08-25+2.99+1.74
2026-08-26+2.73+1.98
2026-08-27+2.70+1.34
2026-08-28+2.65+0.78
2026-08-29+2.88+1.42
2026-08-30+2.90+0.86
2026-08-31+2.68+3.26
2026-09-01+2.51+3.30
2026-09-02+2.44+2.67
2026-09-03+2.38+2.79
2026-09-04+2.29+2.75
2026-09-05+2.56+0.50
2026-09-06+2.56+1.27
2026-09-07+2.53−1.84
2026-09-08+2.80+0.52
2026-09-09+3.35+3.68
2026-09-10+3.76+3.48
2026-09-11+3.75+3.74
2026-09-12+3.30+7.20
2026-09-13+3.45+7.48
2026-09-14+3.62+9.60
2026-09-15+3.97+9.17
2026-09-16+3.60+5.94
2026-09-17+3.32+6.57
2026-09-18+3.40+6.81
2026-09-19+3.19+5.66
2026-09-20+3.01+4.10
2026-09-21+2.79+3.21
2026-09-22+2.40+1.34
2026-09-23+2.27+3.55
2026-09-24+2.11+4.31
Chart data · WETH: the formula estimate and observed return · 30-day periods
LP/xyk over the selected period, pp/yr
Start dateFormula estimate of LP/xyk, pp/yrObserved LP/xyk, pp/yr
2026-06-02+5.55+10.89
2026-06-03+5.51+10.56
2026-06-04+5.38+9.95
2026-06-05+5.08+8.12
2026-06-06+4.40+5.76
2026-06-07+4.23+4.89
2026-06-08+4.06+4.89
2026-06-09+3.93+4.68
2026-06-10+3.81+4.28
2026-06-11+3.68+3.86
2026-06-12+3.58+3.61
2026-06-13+3.53+3.40
2026-06-14+3.62+4.15
2026-06-15+3.65+4.25
2026-06-16+3.61+4.95
2026-06-17+3.55+4.40
2026-06-18+3.45+4.08
2026-06-19+3.35+4.06
2026-06-20+3.31+4.14
2026-06-21+3.36+4.26
2026-06-22+3.37+4.44
2026-06-23+3.33+3.79
2026-06-24+3.26+3.04
2026-06-25+3.10+3.35
2026-06-26+2.84+2.79
2026-06-27+2.59+2.25
2026-06-28+2.65+2.28
2026-06-29+2.67+2.25
2026-06-30+2.62+2.10
2026-07-01+2.57+2.22
2026-07-02+2.48+2.03
2026-07-03+2.35+2.05
2026-07-04+2.30+1.92
2026-07-05+2.29+2.15
2026-07-06+2.28+2.09
2026-07-07+2.19+1.60
2026-07-08+2.11+1.17
2026-07-09+2.06+1.42
2026-07-10+1.99+1.55
2026-07-11+1.92+1.45
2026-07-12+1.92+1.60
2026-07-13+1.91+1.30
2026-07-14+1.85+0.92
2026-07-15+1.78+0.85
2026-07-16+1.71+0.46
2026-07-17+1.63+0.20
2026-07-18+1.55+0.09
2026-07-19+1.56+0.15
2026-07-20+1.54−0.12
2026-07-21+1.96−0.18
2026-07-22+2.11+0.24
2026-07-23+2.40+0.52
2026-07-24+2.60+1.63
2026-07-25+2.73+1.55
2026-07-26+2.91+2.00
2026-07-27+3.01+1.87
2026-07-28+3.00+2.07
2026-07-29+3.02+2.36
2026-07-30+3.02+2.16
2026-07-31+2.97+2.17
2026-08-01+3.01+1.74
2026-08-02+3.07+1.92
2026-08-03+3.11+2.10
2026-08-04+3.14+1.95
2026-08-05+3.19+2.03
2026-08-06+3.30+2.03
2026-08-07+3.28+2.22
2026-08-08+3.28+2.41
2026-08-09+3.33+2.54
2026-08-10+3.38+2.56
2026-08-11+3.42+2.55
2026-08-12+3.46+3.09
2026-08-13+3.65+2.46
2026-08-14+3.64+2.62
2026-08-15+3.65+2.41
2026-08-16+3.76+3.32
2026-08-17+3.95+4.25
2026-08-18+4.09+4.18
2026-08-19+4.15+4.50
2026-08-20+3.75+4.86
2026-08-21+3.59+4.57
2026-08-22+3.31+4.57
2026-08-23+3.25+4.17
2026-08-24+3.17+3.77
2026-08-25+3.08+3.58
2026-08-26+3.04+3.62
2026-08-27+3.02+3.61
2026-08-28+2.92+3.21
2026-08-29+2.83+3.18
2026-08-30+2.92+3.29
2026-08-31+2.90+3.99
2026-09-01+2.88+4.18

B5 Two common misunderstandings about harvesting

Two common beliefs about volatility harvesting do not hold up.

Volatility harvesting is the return from restoring chosen asset proportions at current market prices. The tests compare the proposal with deployed current settings on the same WETH price histories.

Measure: Harvesting contribution, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The proposal minus deployed current settings.

Same for both: The observed WETH starting states, market prices and supplied activity.

Higher means: More harvesting under the proposal.

Each line joins deployed current settings, shown as a circle, to the proposal, shown as a diamond. Colours distinguish the supplied activity. The vertical axis starts at zero. The tests start from observed WETH states.

The period is 7 days. Harvesting uses yearly rates.

Harvesting barely changes over 30 days. Horizontal movements show closer tracking of the market price. Vertical movements show almost no change in harvesting. Colours and marker shapes match the shorter-period chart.

More detail

The asset proportions limit harvesting for a given amount of market price variation. A stall can create a large imbalance and reduce harvesting. Restoring equal values restores that missing contribution.

Changes under the proposal: proposal minus current settings
Activity suppliedPeriodChange in mean price gap, percentage pointsChange in harvesting, pp/yrChange from price direction, pp/yrInterval for direction change, pp/yr
Pings with a simulated YB position7 days−0.675800+0.001933−0.010973−1.376649 to +1.147373
Pings with a simulated YB position30 days−0.479595−0.000669+0.325482−0.069831 to +0.703944
Real flow replayed7 days−0.666958+0.001605−0.295438−1.690270 to +0.871133
Real flow replayed30 days−0.557300+0.000038+0.205130−0.137703 to +0.572510
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contracts7 days−0.666605+0.002026−0.425958−1.692198 to +0.769435
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contracts30 days−0.646436+0.001345−0.143585−0.529150 to +0.284486

Pings supply operation times without copying user asset transfers. The simulated YB position owns pool shares and owes debt. Simulated arbitrage and YB trades can still change the pool’s holdings.

Real-flow replay copies recorded user operations. An additional setup includes contracts whose purposes were not identified. Each row uses the stated activity setup.

Every uncertainty interval for the change from price direction allows both a gain and a loss on these WETH periods. A stall changes holdings and can change both direction and harvesting.

Measure: Loss on arbitrage trades before fees, divided by the same-path constant-product premium.

Compared: Each live pool’s execution loss with the fee-free reference pool’s QV premium.

Same for both: The live market-price history and period.

Higher means: More execution loss before fees for each unit of that premium.

QV adds squared log-price changes. Dividing QV by 8 gives the equal-value premium on this price history.

Fees, trading losses and holdings on the live WETH history
Live WETH contributionPercentage points per year
Arbitrage fees received+18.33
Arbitrage trades before fees−18.78
Arbitrage trades including fees−0.450
Holding the changing mix of assets, including price direction+4.26
Equal-value premium: QV divided by 83.407

The bars compare losses from arbitrage trades, fees and estimated harvesting for each live pool over the main study period. Arbitrage losses are shown before fees. A separate bar includes those fees. All contributions use percentage points per year.

Harvesting uses the asset proportions before each market move. The separate contribution from price direction is outside this harvesting term.

Trading losses compared with the price-history premium
PoolConstant-product LVR: QV divided by 8, pp/yrObserved loss before fees / same-path QV premiumArbitrage including fees, pp/yr
WETH3.4075.51−0.450
WBTC2.2863.62−0.176
cbBTC2.2864.20−0.276
tBTC2.2873.42−0.330

LVR measures losses from trading at outdated prices before fees. The QV divided by 8 reference has no concentration multiplier. That simple reference already explains most of WETH’s result.

More detail

In the simplified centred-pool model, LVR before fees equals the concentration factor times the QV divided by 8 scale. Subtract the portion of LVR left unpaid by fees from the harvesting premium.

This unpaid portion divides arbitrage profit by execution loss. The fee-band table instead divides profit by fees. The observed loss-to-QV ratio compares losses with a price-history reference. That ratio does not directly estimate the curve’s concentration parameter.

What tracking changes

Tracking changes how price rises and falls affect the pool’s value. It also changes the trading depth, capacity available for small trades, at the market price. A pool has most depth near price_scale.

When that centre follows the market, a small order moves the price less than in an equally funded off-centre pool. Off-centre means that the two assets have unequal market values. Whether better quotes attract more trades depends on customer responses.

Near equal values, better tracking barely changes harvesting. The customer benefit works through fees from native flow, customer trading and other user activity. Avoiding stalls preserves the ability to rebalance. The study did not separately measure the size of this benefit to native flow.

Concentration increases the small arbitrage profit left after fees. It also makes the pool move off-centre faster when price_scale lags behind the market.

For the same lag, greater concentration can increase gains or losses from price direction. It can also make a stall more likely. The stall outcome also depends on financing and the gate.

In the live WETH period, user activity contributes +1.25 pp/yr to LP/xyk after execution effects. LP/xyk measures growth beyond a reference pool after the donation charge.

  • The activity includes customer trades.
  • It includes LT deposits and withdrawals. LT is the YieldBasis liquidity token.
  • It also includes VirtualPool operations. VirtualPool is a contract routing trading operations.

For recorded-size WETH customer trades, the proposal’s median cost against the outside market price is 145 basis points. Under deployed current settings, the cost is 6.5 basis points. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

The quote test keeps supplied activity fixed. Each comparison uses the activity named in its setup. Predicting customer responses requires a separate model.

The shared conventions explain the yearly return rates.

Chart data · Closer tracking barely changes harvesting · 7 days
Harvesting, pp/yr
Supplied activitySettingsMean centre-to-market gap, %Harvesting, pp/yr
Pings with a simulated YB positionDeployed current settings0.9530123.488914
Pings with a simulated YB positionProposal0.2772133.490847
Real flow replayedDeployed current settings0.9537493.489014
Real flow replayedProposal0.2867913.490620
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contractsDeployed current settings0.9479973.488717
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contractsProposal0.2813933.490743
Chart data · Closer tracking barely changes harvesting · 30 days
Harvesting, pp/yr
Supplied activitySettingsMean centre-to-market gap, %Harvesting, pp/yr
Pings with a simulated YB positionDeployed current settings0.9807883.175154
Pings with a simulated YB positionProposal0.5011933.174485
Real flow replayedDeployed current settings0.9696613.175366
Real flow replayedProposal0.4123603.175404
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contractsDeployed current settings0.9617393.175264
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contractsProposal0.3153033.176609
Chart data · Trading losses, fees and harvesting
Contribution to growth, pp/yr of pool value
ComparisonFees from arbitrageurs · Contribution to growth, pp/yr of pool valueArbitrage trades before fees · Contribution to growth, pp/yr of pool valueArbitrage trades including fees · Contribution to growth, pp/yr of pool valueHarvesting · Contribution to growth, pp/yr of pool value
WETH+18.33−18.78−0.450+3.40
WBTC+8.10−8.28−0.176+2.18
cbBTC+9.32−9.59−0.276+2.22
tBTC+7.49−7.82−0.330+2.16

C. What the simulator can explain

Recorded activity lets the simulator closely reproduce the live pools.

C1 Replaying recorded activity

Replaying recorded activity closely matches the live pools’ returns.

A replay repeats recorded operations in a simulation. Every replay here receives the market prices that actually occurred.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: Error in LP/xyk, in percentage points per year.

Compared: Real flow replay, using recorded trade amounts, with the observed live pool.

Same for both: Observed period and market prices.

Higher means: A larger overstatement of live growth.

A negative error means the replay grew more slowly. Close agreement: with recorded trade amounts, errors range from −0.32 to 0.24 pp/yr over 128 days.

The largest error is 0.32 pp/yr. That is about a fifth of the post’s claimed +1.65 pp/yr gain. Live LP/xyk ranges from −2.76 to +4.48% per year in this history.

The economic replay lets the pool’s state change after each operation. These runs use floating-point arithmetic, which approximates numbers with limited precision.

Smaller policy differences come from paired tests: both settings receive the same prices and activity. Each test has its own uncertainty estimate.

Which activity the simulation receives

Arbitrage means trading price differences between markets for profit. The YB holder owns pool shares with borrowed money. A ping supplies an update opportunity without a user transfer.

SimulationInputsActivity it does not predict
Real flow replayedRecorded times and amounts for identified user activity. Simulated traders exploit price differences.Operations from unlabelled contracts. Users’ responses to changed quotes.
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contractsThe same inputs, plus operations from unlabelled contractsUser responses to different quotes
Pings with a simulated YB positionRecorded user-operation times. Simulated arbitrage and YB-holder activity continue.Actual deposits, withdrawals and customer order sizes
Arbitrage onlySimulated arbitrage and the YB holder. Updates are free and hourly, or absent.Actual user activity and its times

Some replays include unlabelled contracts, whose trading purpose is unknown.

Copying operation times alone

A ping supplies an update opportunity at a recorded operation time. Pings omit the user’s asset transfer. Simulated arbitrageurs and the debt-financed YB holder can still trade.

Measure: LP/xyk difference, in percentage points per year.

Compared: Pings with live returns after removing user activity’s direct contribution.

Same for both: Observed period.

Higher means: A higher result from pings than from the adjusted live result.

The ping differences are −0.12 pp/yr on WETH and −2.93 pp/yr on cbBTC. Negative figures mean the ping result is lower. Each figure subtracts the adjusted live result from the ping result.

WETH is a token representing Ethereum’s ETH. The Bitcoin pools use tokens representing Bitcoin on Ethereum.

PoolReplay minus live LP/xyk, pp/yrAverage replay capital, million crvUSDPings minus live LP/xyk after removing direct user effects, pp/yrAverage ping capital, million crvUSD
WETH−0.2732.97−0.122.30
WBTC−0.3251.40+0.0428.28
cbBTC0.2480.90−2.9377.12
tBTC0.1535.58−0.5829.64

Capital is valued in crvUSD, the token used for borrowing. The simulated YB holder receives no actual LT deposits. LT is the token for capital managed by YieldBasis.

The simulated pool’s capital can therefore differ from the live pool’s. The same trade then represents a different share of reserves. Removing the direct return from user activity leaves this difference between pool states. Ping errors also vary across months.

More detail: how each source of return is treated
Source of returnReal flow replayedPingsArbitrage only
Arbitrage and its feesSimulatedSimulatedSimulated
User asset transfersReplayedAbsentAbsent
User-operation timesObservedObservedAbsent
Financing and removal of donated sharesRecorded donations. Share removals follow the simulated state.Simulated positionSimulated position
Price-centre moves and asset holdingsFollow each resulting stateFollow each resulting stateFollow each resulting state

A re-peg moves the price around which trading is concentrated. Removing donated shares leaves their assets for the remaining shareholders. Each simulation follows the holdings and price-centre moves produced by its own state.

Checking the arithmetic exactly

Measure: Number of operations with exactly matching states.

Compared: The simulated resulting state with the state recorded after the operation.

Same for both: Recorded operation and recorded starting state.

Higher means: More operations agree exactly.

  • Exact agreement for 29,316 WETH operations.
  • Exact agreement for 31,973 Bitcoin-pool operations.

This test uses integers and reproduces the recorded states exactly. It checks each operation from its recorded starting state. The economic replay instead lets earlier simulated operations determine later states.

These calculations keep recorded customer activity fixed. Predicting customers’ responses to different quotes requires a separate model.

C2 What recorded activity adds to the formula

Recorded user activity removes most of the error left by the simple formula.

A replay copies recorded user activity into the simulation. A ping copies only an operation time. Both methods receive the market prices that actually occurred.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Squared error squares each prediction error before averaging.

Measure: Share of the formula’s remaining squared error removed (no unit).

Compared: Each simulator with the simple formula.

Same for both: WETH starting states, periods and known market prices.

Higher means: More of the formula’s remaining error removed.

WETH is a token representing Ethereum’s ETH. The comparison uses identical starting states at each time horizon.

At 7 days, replay removes 88.0–95.8% of the formula’s remaining squared error. Replay also removes most of the remaining error at 30 days. Pings add no improvement over the formula at that longer horizon.

Recorded activity removes most of the formula’s remaining error. Pings add no improvement over the formula at 30 days. Colours distinguish 7-day and 30-day results, rather than sources of return.

The formula uses QV, which sums squared log-price changes, divided by 8. Each comparison uses the same WETH starting states and known market prices.

How to read the score

The skill score measures the share of a reference prediction’s error removed.

Skill = 1 − (model error ÷ reference error). A perfect prediction scores 1. No improvement scores 0. Negative scores mean a worse prediction than the reference.

Every method receives the prices that actually occurred. These tests explain returns given those prices. They do not test forecasts of future market prices.

More detail: an example of the error calculation

Compare a weather forecast with “tomorrow will be like today.” Square each temperature error, then average the squared errors. Compare the averages to see how much error the detailed forecast removes.

What the simple formula already explains

The simplest reference predicts zero LP/xyk. The formula uses price moves and has no fitted parameters. Its QV term adds squared logarithmic price moves. The formula divides QV by 8.

Measure: Share of the zero prediction’s squared error removed (no unit).

Compared: The formula with a prediction of zero LP/xyk.

Same for both: The stated WETH sample and observed prices.

Higher means: More error removed compared with predicting zero.

On WETH windows starting near equal asset values, the formula removes 64.6% of error at 7 days. It removes 87.1% at 30 days. That already explains most of the outcome once prices are known. The formula alone cannot distinguish small policy gains.

More detail: scores against zero use different samples
MethodScore at 7 daysScore at 30 days
QV/8 formula0.6460.871
Pings with a simulated YB position0.8410.879
Real flow replayed0.9380.977
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contracts0.9860.989
MethodStarting states at 7 daysStarting states at 30 days
Formula11592
Simulators12299

The samples differ between the formula and simulators in this table. Use the main chart to measure what simulation adds on identical starting states.

The Bitcoin pools need their starting asset mix

The Bitcoin pools start away from equal asset values. Adding their starting asset mix accounts for gains or losses when prices move in one direction.

The added term removes 75.6% of zero-prediction squared error at 7 days. It removes 21.9% at 30 days. QV divided by 8 alone gives no improvement for those pools.

Bitcoin simulators were not scored against this formula. Arbitrage-only simulations were outside the WETH scoring test above.

More detail: the Bitcoin formula

The formula uses the starting risky-asset weight, written w, and the change in logarithmic market price. Its harvesting term also uses squared logarithmic price moves, QV.

(w₀ − ½)·Δln P + ½·w₀(1 − w₀)·QV

The comparison beyond the formula uses the same starting dates for every method at each horizon.

More detail: scores against zero on different samples

These scores compare each method with predicting zero LP/xyk. The formula and simulators use different samples. Use the main chart to compare their added value on identical starting states.

Chart data · What recorded activity adds beyond the formula
Share of remaining squared error removed
Simulation or comparison7 days · Share of remaining squared error removed30 days · Share of remaining squared error removed
Real flow, including unlabelled contracts0.9580.902
Real flow replayed0.8800.897
Pings with a simulated YB position0.609−0.003
Chart data · Error removed compared with predicting zero LP/xyk
Share of zero-prediction squared error removed
Simulation or comparison7 days · Share of zero-prediction squared error removed30 days · Share of zero-prediction squared error removed
QV/8 formula0.6460.871
Pings with a simulated YB position0.8410.879
Real flow replayed0.9380.977
Real flow replayed, including unlabelled contracts0.9860.989

C3 Small input errors can change whether the pool stalls

Small input differences can change whether a pool stalls.

A stall is a price gap above 5% that lasts at least 24 hours. The price-gap rule defines the threshold and duration.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: Reruns with a stall classification differing from the most common classification, as a percentage.

Compared: Each policy’s input-error reruns with its own most common result.

Same for both: WBTC market history.

Higher means: Greater sensitivity to small input errors.

WBTC is a token representing Bitcoin. With small input errors, 33–39% of proposal reruns differ from its most common stall classification. All reruns with current settings agree.

A changed recovery can change the return difference

cbBTC is another token representing Bitcoin. Its comparison covers 1 August 2026 to 1 October 2026. Every rerun receives the same market-price history.

  • When the current pool recovers, proposal-minus-current LP/xyk averages 1.52 pp/yr.
  • When the current pool remains stalled, the average is 9.11 pp/yr.

These groups describe recovery of the current pool. The proposal’s gain stays positive in both groups. Its size changes greatly.

The smaller WETH gain can change sign

WETH represents Ethereum’s ETH. The recorded-activity test covers 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026.

The mean proposal-minus-current LP/xyk difference is +0.22 pp/yr. Negative differences occur in 10 of 64 input-error reruns.

The mean gain is small compared with the post’s claim. Some input-error reruns give losses. Each dot repeats the same WETH history with plausible input errors and recorded user activity.

The window runs from 1 August 2026 to 1 September 2026. The horizontal axis shows proposal-minus-current LP/xyk in percentage points per year. Vertical spacing has no measured meaning.

How a small error changes later decisions

A separate cbBTC reconstruction traces the mechanism. On 29 May, a trade missed its trigger by 0.5 basis points under one token-valuation convention. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

That miss changed whether the pool moved price_scale, its centre price, back towards the market. The difference affected later price-centre moves for the following month. A threshold can turn a small input error into a lasting difference in holdings.

More detail: inputs and stall warnings

Each rerun keeps the market history fixed. The rerun changes token valuations, externally reported prices or transaction timing. Whole-day error segments preserve errors that persist through a day. The test generates the Bitcoin price reports.

Holdings, price-centre moves and financing each contribute to the total LP/xyk difference. Financing supplies capital through the YB holder’s interest-funded donations.

Only about 3 distinct Bitcoin market events are available. Counting the same market move for each Bitcoin token would overstate the independent evidence.

A warning’s precision is the share of issued warnings that correctly identify a stall. Compare warnings at the same precision.

Recent accounting buffers and the cost of an affordable move give no better warning than the previous week’s stall status.

Input-error reruns keep the price sequence fixed. Rebuilt histories test different sequences of the observed moves.

Chart data · Small input errors can change the sign of the WETH gain
Proposal minus current LP/xyk, percentage points per year
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
+0.077Yes
+0.701Yes
+0.427Yes
+0.059Yes
+0.392Yes
+0.368Yes
+0.218Yes
+0.046Yes
+0.261Yes
+0.341Yes
+0.099Yes
+0.506Yes
+0.138Yes
+0.148Yes
+0.587Yes
+0.248Yes
+0.031Yes
+0.060Yes
−0.230Yes
+0.713Yes
+0.429Yes
+0.310Yes
+0.163Yes
+0.126Yes
+0.189Yes
+0.304Yes
+0.483Yes
+0.024Yes
−0.289Yes
+0.252Yes
+0.380Yes
+0.079Yes
+0.077Yes
−0.025Yes
+0.473Yes
+0.578Yes
−0.312Yes
+0.249Yes
−0.402Yes
−0.058Yes
+0.255Yes
+0.819Yes
+0.244Yes
+0.304Yes
+0.550Yes
+0.224Yes
−0.292Yes
−0.126Yes
+0.253Yes
−0.319Yes
+0.462Yes
+0.041Yes
+0.126Yes
+0.301Yes
+0.226Yes
+0.306Yes
+0.194Yes
+0.354Yes
−0.094Yes
+0.191Yes
+0.269Yes
+0.507Yes
+0.311Yes
+0.601Yes

C4 How customers respond remains an open problem

These simulations do not predict how customers respond to different quotes.

A replay copies recorded activity into a simulation. A fixed-activity replay asks what the pool earns if users trade the same amounts at the same times.

Customers can choose another trading venue. Customers can also change order amounts, change trading times or stop trading. Capital held through LT, YieldBasis’s liquidity token, can enter or leave.

Predicting those responses remains an open problem across automated market-maker simulation. An automated market maker trades through programmed pricing rules. Traders have many motives. This study has not established a reliable response model.

Specified choices are different from predicted choices

The customer-response test imposes rejection of quotes above a cost limit. A separate scenario removes all tested customer flow from the proposal. The resulting returns describe those supplied choices of activity.

A pool’s state determines quotes for a fixed order size. That state also determines trading depth: how much can trade for a small price change.

Estimating missing volume requires a model of customer choices under alternative quotes. Estimating customer retention and benefits to traders requires the same comparison.

Measure: Customer dollar volume per day, expressed as a ratio.

Compared: WBTC stall days with days without a stall.

Same for both: The live WBTC sample.

Higher means: More recorded daily trading on stall days.

WBTC is a token representing Bitcoin. On stall days, recorded customer dollar volume per day was 2.53 times the volume on days without stalls.

The market also moved more on stall days. The ratio therefore combines the stall with different market conditions.

A convincing model would reproduce customer behaviour on observations excluded from fitting. The checks would cover trading venues, order sizes, trading times and changes in supplied capital.

D. Testing different sequences of market moves

Rebuilt histories show how results depend on the sequence of market moves.

D1 Why one price history is not enough

Changing the order of observed market moves changes the proposal’s results.

The search selects among 1.6 million settings using one price history. A setting can perform well because it fits that particular sequence.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: Proposal-minus-current LP/xyk, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The proposal with deployed current settings.

Same for both: Each rebuilt WETH price history.

Higher means: A larger advantage for the proposal.

WETH represents Ethereum’s ETH. Rebuilding the price history tests how results depend on the sequence of observed moves. The proposal’s median advantage is positive. Some rebuilt histories give losses.

How a history is rebuilt

A block bootstrap draws consecutive stretches of observed moves again. Moves within each stretch stay together. Stretches can repeat, disappear or continue past the source endpoint to its beginning. Their order over longer periods changes.

Each letter below represents one stretch of the original history. The rebuilt history repeats B and E. It leaves out D and F.

Original stretches
ABCDEF
Rebuilt history
BBEAEC

The main comparison uses 100 rebuilt histories. Each lasts 556 days. The fixed summary draws stretches lasting 180 days.

Prices are divided by each history’s starting price. Thin lines show selected examples. The marked reference follows the original price history. All rebuilt histories draw stretches from that original history.

The shaded band runs from percentile 2.5 to percentile 97.5 at each weekly observation. The band describes the spread of rebuilt prices at that observation.

The horizontal axis shows proposal-minus-current LP/xyk on retained pairs of rebuilt histories. The box covers the middle half of outcomes. Its line marks the median. Whiskers extend to the smallest and largest outcomes.

The diamond marks the original-history outcome.

Rebuilt histories: 100. Retained pairs: 100. Excluded pairs: 0.

A pair is excluded if either holder’s wealth after debt reaches zero or becomes negative during the path.

Results across rebuilt histories

The median LP/xyk advantage is +1.90 pp/yr, similar to the post’s claimed gain. The middle 95% of outcomes runs from −7.89 to +7.12 pp/yr. The advantage is positive in 84 of 100 histories.

The outcome range describes differences between histories. It is not an uncertainty interval for the mean.

The fixed summary uses 180-day stretches. The archive excludes a pair if either YB holder’s wealth after debt becomes zero or negative during the path. That exclusion also applies to pool-return summaries. The tables show retained and excluded pairs.

The internal accounting measure answers another question

Virtual price is the pool’s internal accounting index. Recognised return measures its growth after the donation charge.

Measure: Proposal-minus-current recognised return, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The proposal with deployed current settings.

Same for both: The same rebuilt WETH histories.

Higher means: A larger advantage in internal accounting growth after the donation charge.

Recognised-return statisticResult
Length of copied stretches, days180
Median difference, pp/yr+1.93
Middle 95% of outcomes, pp/yr−2.32 to +3.40
Histories with a positive difference92
More detail: how the measures differ

Recognised return replaces M, the market-value score inside LP/xyk, with virtual-price growth. It keeps the same donation charge and the same measurement period. The outcome range describes variation across histories.

Rebuilding does not remove the original selection

The settings were chosen using the original history. Rebuilding that history does not undo the choice. Tests on unused data evaluate observations excluded from selection.

Input-error reruns keep market moves fixed and alter measured inputs. Rebuilt histories change the sequence of observed moves. Both tests draw their market behaviour from the original history.

Chart data · Prices on rebuilt histories · 180-day blocks
Price divided by starting price, sampled weekly
Rebuilt historyWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sample
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Path AK1.0001.0391.0731.1231.1011.1241.0100.9950.9510.8010.8180.8090.7450.8460.8560.8870.9260.8930.9050.8891.1671.1451.1921.1741.2541.2741.3581.4431.3151.2591.3391.4421.7561.8891.9841.9182.4732.2582.3472.3172.2652.3902.1622.2642.3572.0751.9822.0321.7831.7781.5751.5761.3301.3831.5461.6051.9282.2262.3282.2982.1082.3082.2022.1102.2632.5783.0373.2383.2303.4153.9713.6903.9403.7533.8944.0073.3843.9174.2264.296
Path AL1.0001.0011.0041.1131.1230.9921.0220.7540.6830.6720.6250.6690.6880.7820.7280.7110.7560.7840.7860.7730.7970.7680.7130.7000.6280.5530.5820.6300.6930.6990.6910.6900.6800.8140.9060.8650.8920.8740.9710.9710.8760.7660.7740.7690.8680.8761.2181.2101.2361.2301.2161.2341.2081.0711.0711.1281.1761.0031.0431.0521.1211.1871.0551.0650.7600.6870.6920.7280.7530.7260.7800.7680.7570.7750.8350.8400.7970.8320.8090.922
Path AM1.0000.9990.8920.8300.7840.8920.8920.9001.2971.2681.3331.2961.3781.2551.2021.2781.3761.6761.8041.8941.8312.3612.1562.2402.2122.1622.3512.4992.2762.1802.3172.4963.0403.2713.4353.3214.2823.9094.0634.0133.9214.1393.7443.9204.0803.5933.4313.5193.0873.0792.7282.7292.8752.9982.5552.6582.6802.8573.0252.6892.7151.9371.7501.7641.8551.9181.8501.9871.9561.9301.9752.1282.1412.0322.1202.0371.9201.8261.5751.596
Path AN1.0001.1141.1381.1671.1791.1801.2121.1921.5941.5471.5561.5941.6551.7051.7541.6171.2511.3491.4911.5261.5432.2752.1432.2592.2022.3912.0961.9472.1262.0902.4672.2572.1252.2102.4852.4262.4162.4622.4542.2342.2162.1041.7731.8841.8121.6921.8871.8631.9981.9851.9511.9642.0042.0262.9872.8142.9662.8913.1402.7982.7302.6812.9163.4984.1764.2294.0275.1184.5445.1294.8234.8055.0184.6434.6214.9584.5994.3184.4514.019
Path AO1.0001.0501.0151.3091.1951.2421.2271.1991.2651.1451.1981.2471.0991.0491.0760.9440.9410.8340.8340.8790.9160.7810.8120.8190.8730.9251.0441.1131.1111.1751.3661.2691.3551.2911.3391.3781.1641.3471.3121.1701.1591.1430.9960.9710.8510.9060.9410.9730.8500.8720.9020.9330.9940.9240.8710.9821.0481.0701.0651.0361.0431.0631.3541.3401.3771.3291.5261.4841.3581.3421.2211.1981.3531.3621.9191.8391.8801.8781.9491.982
Path AP1.0000.9750.8550.9090.9450.9770.8530.8760.9060.9371.0010.8910.8510.5510.5880.5880.6120.6250.6250.6450.6220.6210.6610.7080.7030.6810.7630.7670.7280.7600.7300.6880.6540.5860.5240.5660.5240.5200.5640.6200.6250.6180.6170.6080.7280.8100.7730.7980.7810.8680.8680.7830.9320.9320.9411.3551.3251.3931.3541.4401.3111.2561.3351.4381.7511.8841.9791.9132.4672.2522.3412.3112.2592.3842.1572.2582.3502.0702.1142.098
Path AQ1.0001.1071.2051.0871.0741.1751.1151.0061.1250.9550.9560.9810.9600.8570.7760.6900.7560.7540.7690.7430.7300.7790.7700.8220.7370.6750.5330.5310.5410.5390.4910.4870.4620.3900.4140.3980.3720.4150.4090.4390.4360.4290.4320.4410.5720.5690.5740.5800.6400.6200.5860.5610.5110.4870.4670.5010.5710.6720.7170.7150.7560.8790.8170.8720.8310.8620.8870.7490.8670.8450.7530.7460.7360.6410.6250.5480.5830.6060.6140.603
Path AR1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8540.8330.6550.6890.7070.6530.7270.7430.7610.7690.7700.7910.7781.0401.0101.0151.0401.0801.1131.1451.0560.9720.9720.9190.9150.9170.9760.9710.9290.9621.0641.0951.0811.0791.0841.0160.9870.9420.7310.7830.8110.7330.8300.8330.8680.8730.8590.9200.9910.9490.9410.9450.9120.8470.8260.6490.6830.7010.6470.7210.7360.7550.7630.7630.7840.7711.0311.0011.0061.0311.0701.1031.1351.1381.113
Path AS1.0000.9580.9800.9790.9770.9800.8890.9430.9741.1391.3911.4481.3141.6491.7121.8501.6931.6541.8061.7341.5561.7371.4501.5061.5311.5001.3371.3731.5621.4541.4191.5101.5661.5691.5431.5911.5341.4241.3981.2541.1051.2091.1241.0601.1941.2751.3011.2961.2601.2691.2931.6471.9411.9822.0111.9831.9792.0791.9301.9372.1531.9491.8291.8941.6561.6401.3931.3571.2861.4361.3631.3831.3501.4821.4231.4661.3471.0791.1221.131
Path AT1.0000.9420.9791.1011.0751.0711.0911.0870.9900.9820.9320.7850.8350.8030.7500.8360.8260.8850.8790.8650.8700.8891.1531.1471.1571.1691.2931.3481.1491.1961.2051.2851.3611.2101.2210.8710.7870.7930.8350.8630.8320.8940.8800.8680.8880.9570.9630.9140.9540.9160.8640.8210.8050.9050.8840.8800.8960.8930.8130.8070.7660.6460.6860.6600.6160.6870.6780.7270.7230.7110.7150.7310.9480.9420.9510.9611.0601.0270.9810.635
Path AU1.0000.9740.9231.0310.9780.9930.9691.0641.0211.0520.9670.7740.6940.6590.6120.6690.6570.7760.7100.6680.6950.7820.7630.7600.7740.7720.8470.9030.9010.9521.1071.0291.0991.0471.0861.1170.9441.0921.0640.9490.9390.9270.8070.7870.6900.7340.7630.7880.6890.7070.7320.7570.7320.7280.7220.7210.8100.7640.7380.7850.8150.8420.8810.8640.8820.7930.7810.7470.6290.6420.6350.5850.6640.6720.6960.7270.7010.7110.7170.764
Path AV1.0001.0221.3251.3171.3291.3431.4821.4351.3571.3001.1211.1371.2771.3181.6781.8151.8081.8111.7721.8461.7221.7341.7952.1172.5382.6662.5232.5422.6742.7652.6672.8642.8192.7822.8463.0673.0862.9283.0552.9362.7682.6322.3562.1072.2752.1082.0922.2662.4932.5142.4832.4812.3552.1902.0692.3552.3532.3763.4243.3473.5183.4213.6363.3133.1733.3723.6324.4234.7604.9984.8326.2315.6895.9125.8395.7066.0225.4485.6294.918
Path AW1.0000.9400.9370.9780.9050.9010.9670.8970.8420.8650.7150.7430.6790.6430.6510.7210.6440.6440.6460.7170.7230.6390.6580.4850.4400.4330.4790.4900.5020.5080.5080.5220.5130.6860.6660.6700.6860.7120.7340.7550.6960.5390.5810.6420.6570.6640.9800.9230.9730.9481.0300.9170.9381.2171.2101.2211.2341.3611.3191.2471.1941.0301.0441.1731.2111.5411.6681.6611.6641.6281.6951.5821.5931.6491.9442.3312.4492.2932.4362.530
Path AX1.0001.0630.9680.9270.9861.0621.2931.3911.4611.4131.8211.6631.7281.7071.6681.7601.5931.6671.7361.5281.4591.4971.3131.3101.1601.1611.1551.1191.1351.1321.0580.9960.8780.8290.8480.7770.8430.8650.9240.9310.9510.9440.9351.1531.2441.2431.2081.2131.3321.3831.2111.0321.0581.0461.0620.9291.0421.0711.2391.5661.6141.4581.7721.8641.9931.8311.7951.9191.8531.7271.8821.7311.6601.7341.6291.4941.2901.1681.1521.179
Path AY1.0001.0310.9940.9220.9060.8120.7160.7830.7280.6870.7740.8260.8430.8400.8170.8220.8381.0671.0561.0851.0481.2031.1701.0701.0570.9630.9290.7680.7980.7300.6910.7000.7750.6920.6920.6950.7700.7770.6870.7070.5220.4720.4650.4320.4630.4760.5410.5040.4920.5230.5420.5430.5130.5090.4830.4070.4330.4160.3890.4340.4280.4590.4560.4480.4510.4610.5980.5950.6000.6060.6690.6480.6130.5870.5060.5130.5760.5950.5920.582
Path AZ1.0001.0951.0441.0011.0731.2231.4401.5361.5321.6201.8831.7501.8691.7801.8471.9001.6051.8581.8101.6131.5981.5761.3731.3391.1741.2491.1580.8990.9630.9970.9011.0201.0241.0671.0741.0571.0981.0781.3881.4081.4211.4471.5081.5441.5431.3781.2821.2111.3781.3771.3902.0031.9541.9762.7092.7442.7832.8312.9092.7622.6182.6982.7603.2724.0844.1244.0404.5854.6824.7514.6844.6754.9114.5594.5765.0854.6044.3204.3496.127
Path BA1.0001.0371.0391.0221.0541.0160.9430.9260.8300.7320.8000.7440.7020.7910.8450.8620.8580.8350.8400.8561.0911.0801.1091.0711.2291.1961.2051.1631.3351.2981.1881.1741.0691.0481.1831.1921.6791.6091.6441.6431.6411.6451.4921.5831.6351.9132.3342.4312.2062.7692.8743.1053.1353.0243.2473.1963.1543.2273.4783.4983.3203.4643.3293.1382.9842.6722.3902.5802.3902.3722.5692.8262.8502.8162.8132.7703.3203.6943.5883.607
Path BB1.0001.0521.1251.0331.0131.0831.0460.9751.0620.9770.9370.9780.9190.8430.7280.6590.7040.7200.7210.7060.6940.7400.7350.7730.6630.5340.4280.4440.4570.3860.4470.4350.3880.3840.3790.3300.3220.2820.3000.3120.3220.2820.2890.2990.3090.3310.2940.2810.1820.1940.1940.2020.1770.1550.1740.1790.2060.2610.2690.2430.2950.3110.3320.3050.2990.3200.3090.2880.3140.2880.2770.2890.2710.2490.2150.1950.2080.2130.2090.217
Path BC1.0001.0810.9890.9661.0551.0130.9091.0150.8470.8790.8940.8760.7690.7160.6260.6760.6870.7040.6730.6670.7070.6980.7490.6680.5540.4720.4550.4710.4920.4740.4810.4720.6200.6080.6320.6230.6650.6760.6760.6130.5130.5340.5970.6200.7440.8590.8980.8870.8140.8910.8500.8150.8640.8910.8590.8580.9130.9790.9720.9410.9550.9520.8900.8380.7380.6980.7130.6540.7090.7280.7770.7830.8000.7940.7860.9701.0471.0450.9470.932
Path BD1.0000.8810.9640.8960.8450.9531.0171.0381.0341.0051.0121.0311.3131.3001.3361.2901.4811.4401.3171.3021.1851.1631.3121.3211.8621.7841.9761.7561.7731.2651.1431.1521.2121.2531.2081.2981.2771.2601.2901.3901.3981.3271.3851.3301.2541.1921.0680.9551.0310.9550.9481.0271.2851.2101.2761.2441.3511.2041.1741.1531.2541.5051.7961.8191.7322.2011.9542.2062.0752.0672.1591.9971.9882.1331.9781.8571.9081.5761.6811.715
Path BE1.0001.1351.1591.1761.1591.1571.2161.1291.1331.2591.1401.0691.1070.9690.9590.8150.7940.7520.8400.7970.8090.7890.8670.8320.8570.7870.7300.6420.6130.6290.5520.5500.4880.4880.5140.5360.4570.4750.4790.5110.5410.4810.4850.3460.3130.3150.3320.3430.3310.3550.3500.3450.4290.4650.4630.4640.4530.4720.4410.4440.4590.5420.6490.6820.6390.7340.8130.8850.7980.7890.8630.8180.7380.8260.7010.7020.7200.7050.7160.715
Path BF1.0000.9951.0680.9910.9300.9560.7890.8210.7500.7110.7200.7970.7110.7120.7140.7920.7990.7060.7270.5360.4860.4780.4450.4760.4890.5560.5100.5380.5240.5700.5080.4950.4860.5290.6350.7580.7670.7300.9280.8240.9300.8750.8720.9100.8420.8380.8990.8340.7830.8050.6650.6910.7150.7530.7850.6690.6960.7020.7480.7920.7040.7110.5070.4590.4620.4860.5020.4850.5200.5120.5050.5170.5570.5610.5320.5550.5330.5030.5670.573
Path BG1.0001.0661.0671.1101.1351.1351.1701.1281.1261.1991.2851.2761.2361.2541.2501.1681.1000.9690.9160.9370.8580.9310.9551.0211.0281.0501.0361.0771.2111.1831.1781.2001.1961.0891.0801.0260.8640.9180.8830.8250.9200.9080.9740.9680.9510.9580.9781.2691.2621.2731.2861.4191.3601.2861.2801.2831.3661.3591.3001.3461.4891.5321.5111.5101.5161.4211.3801.3181.0231.0951.1351.0261.1601.1651.2141.2221.2021.2491.2441.299
Path BH1.0000.9760.9581.0421.2501.4921.5121.4391.8291.6241.8331.7241.7171.7931.6591.6511.7721.6431.5431.5851.3101.3621.2441.1791.1941.3221.3211.3381.3571.3801.4191.3471.2761.3151.3461.5951.9912.0111.9692.2352.2832.3162.2842.2792.3942.2222.2312.4792.2452.1062.1811.9071.7711.9921.8781.8151.9292.0042.0692.1662.1232.1681.9481.9201.8351.5461.5781.5611.4371.6331.6521.7121.7871.7241.7471.7152.2522.2102.1662.221
Path BI1.0000.9150.8610.8951.0070.9830.9790.9980.9940.9050.8980.8530.7180.7630.7350.6850.7650.7550.8090.8040.7910.7960.8131.0551.0491.0581.0731.0541.3571.3761.3891.4141.4741.5101.5081.3471.2531.1841.3471.3461.3591.9591.9152.0131.9572.0801.8951.8151.9292.0782.5302.7232.6472.5352.1862.2162.4902.5703.2723.5403.5253.5323.4553.5993.3573.3813.4994.1274.9495.1974.8675.5946.1946.7426.0836.0106.5746.2356.3096.987
Path BJ1.0001.0231.2121.5141.5281.4971.6991.7351.7611.7361.7331.8201.6901.6961.8851.7061.6011.6581.4501.4351.2201.1881.1261.2571.1931.2111.2641.2141.0891.2161.0151.0541.0711.0490.9210.8580.7500.8100.8230.8440.8070.7990.8470.8360.8970.8000.6640.5650.5650.5350.5320.5330.5480.5710.5850.5840.5220.4850.4580.5220.5210.5260.7580.7410.7790.7580.8050.7340.7030.7470.8050.9801.0541.1071.0711.3801.2601.3101.4501.578
Path BK1.0000.9981.0480.9730.9771.0860.9830.9220.9550.8350.8270.7030.6840.6490.7240.6870.6980.6810.7480.7180.7390.6790.5440.4880.4630.4300.4450.3750.3990.3840.3580.3990.3940.4230.4200.4130.4160.4250.5510.5480.5530.5580.6160.5970.5640.5400.4660.4730.5310.5480.6980.7550.7310.8390.8160.7470.7380.6710.6590.7440.7491.0551.0111.0331.0321.0311.0340.9380.9951.0281.2021.4671.5281.3861.7401.8061.9511.7861.9501.873
Path BL1.0001.0380.9090.7740.8100.7880.8970.9081.2441.2611.2781.3001.3361.2691.2031.2391.2681.5031.8761.8941.8552.1062.1512.1822.1512.1472.3662.2922.3262.3182.1662.0401.7981.6991.7371.5921.7261.7721.8931.9071.9471.9331.9152.3622.5492.5462.4752.4842.7292.8322.4802.1132.1452.0432.1202.1811.8422.1322.0771.8521.8341.8091.5761.5361.3471.4341.4901.5391.3451.3811.4281.4771.5781.4041.3420.8690.9260.9270.9101.196
Path BM1.0000.9871.0101.0881.0951.0391.0841.0410.9820.9330.8360.7480.8070.7480.7420.8040.8840.8920.8810.8800.8671.0391.1561.1031.1381.1151.1411.2141.2611.3031.1391.1691.2091.2511.3361.1891.1360.7350.7840.7850.8160.8340.8350.8610.8290.8280.8820.9450.9380.9090.9220.9190.8420.8390.8760.8110.8070.8660.8030.7540.7750.6400.6650.6080.5760.5830.6460.5770.5770.5790.6420.6470.5720.5890.4350.3940.3880.3600.3550.369
Path BN1.0001.0271.0040.8970.8120.7220.7910.7890.8050.7780.7640.8160.8060.8600.7720.7070.5380.5350.5140.5040.5160.5460.5600.5200.5360.5860.5850.5110.5740.5900.6820.8620.8880.8020.9751.0261.0971.0080.9881.0561.0200.9501.0360.9530.9140.9540.8960.8220.7100.6430.6860.7020.6510.6350.5570.5930.6160.6360.5560.5710.5900.6110.6520.5800.5550.3590.3830.3830.3990.4070.4070.4200.4050.4040.4300.4610.4580.4440.4830.579
Path BO1.0000.9981.0551.2271.1401.2171.1591.2031.2381.0451.2101.1781.0511.0401.0260.8940.8720.7650.8130.8450.8730.7630.7830.8100.8380.8950.8690.8770.8860.9780.9470.8950.8580.7400.7500.8430.8701.1071.1981.1931.1951.1691.2181.1361.1441.1841.3971.6751.7591.6471.8932.0962.1352.1392.0932.1802.0342.0482.1202.5002.9983.1482.9483.3883.7524.0843.6853.6403.9823.7763.4083.8143.2363.2383.3253.2522.9042.6302.4662.394
Path BP1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9951.0141.2911.2781.3131.2681.4561.4151.2951.2801.1651.1431.2901.2991.8301.7541.7931.7911.7891.7931.6271.7261.9292.0722.0392.0122.0592.2192.2322.1182.2102.1232.0021.9041.7051.5251.6461.5251.5131.6391.8031.8191.7961.7951.7672.1182.3572.2492.3492.4172.2281.7231.8582.0542.1032.1253.1342.9533.1123.0333.2942.9362.8642.8133.0593.6704.3824.4384.2255.3694.7675.3815.0615.0415.0624.745
Path BQ1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9951.0141.2911.2781.3131.2681.4561.4151.2951.2801.1651.1431.2901.2991.8301.7541.7931.7911.7891.7931.6271.7261.8011.7951.8741.7341.7261.8521.7181.6131.6571.3691.4231.3011.2321.2481.3811.2331.2341.2381.3731.3851.2241.2600.9300.8420.8290.7710.8960.8980.8830.9110.8780.8150.8000.7180.6330.6920.6430.6070.6830.7300.7450.7420.7220.7260.7400.9430.9330.9590.9251.0621.0330.9460.9631.004
Path BR1.0001.0741.0571.0431.0671.1501.1571.0981.1461.1011.0380.9870.8840.7900.8530.7900.7840.8500.9350.9430.9310.9300.9161.0981.2221.1661.2241.3791.4731.5031.4971.4561.4661.4931.9021.8831.9351.8672.1442.0851.9081.8851.7161.6841.9011.9142.6962.5832.6412.6392.6352.6412.5192.4992.7072.9783.0032.9672.9642.9193.4983.8923.7143.8323.7554.1684.1703.7623.2903.3253.3043.7283.7645.2335.1985.3095.2855.2235.3906.861
Path BS1.0000.9291.0140.9971.1771.0771.0141.0541.1861.1581.1531.1751.1711.0661.0571.0040.8460.8990.8650.8070.9000.8890.9530.9470.9310.9370.9300.9460.9690.9270.9180.9730.9611.0300.9190.7630.6490.6490.6140.6110.6130.6520.6490.6210.6430.7110.7310.7220.7210.7240.6790.6590.6520.6110.5930.5670.4400.4710.4880.4410.4990.5010.5220.5250.5170.5370.5270.6790.6890.6950.7080.7380.7550.7550.6740.6270.5920.6740.6400.606
Path BT1.0001.1941.2091.1511.4631.2991.4661.3791.3741.4351.3271.3211.4171.3151.2341.2681.0481.0890.9960.9430.9551.0570.9440.9450.9481.0510.9521.0360.9350.9231.0100.9580.8640.9670.8210.8210.8440.8250.7370.6670.5930.6500.6480.6610.6390.6280.6700.6620.7070.6340.5800.4420.4000.4060.3960.4350.4170.4300.3950.3170.2840.2700.2500.2730.2690.3170.2900.2730.2840.3200.3120.3110.3170.3160.2870.2850.2710.2280.2370.233
Path BU1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8540.8330.6550.6890.7070.6530.7270.7430.7610.7690.7700.7910.7781.0401.0101.0151.0401.0801.1131.1451.0560.8860.9710.9680.9880.9550.9381.0010.9901.0560.9470.8670.6610.6560.6310.6180.6340.6700.6880.6380.6580.7190.7750.7420.7360.7390.7130.7240.7800.9501.0221.0741.0381.3381.2221.2701.2541.2261.2941.1701.2251.2751.1231.0721.1000.9650.9620.8530.8530.8980.9370.7980.8310.7960.686
Path BV1.0001.1701.4271.4871.3491.6931.7571.8991.7381.6981.8541.7801.5971.7831.4891.5461.5711.5391.3521.2591.1011.1881.2071.2381.1831.1721.2601.4311.4611.4821.4621.4591.5321.4221.4281.5871.4371.3481.3961.2211.2091.0271.0000.9481.0581.0041.0190.9951.0921.0491.0800.9931.1971.0621.1991.1281.1231.1731.0851.0811.1591.0751.0101.0370.8570.8910.8140.7710.7810.8650.7720.7730.7750.8590.8670.7660.7890.5820.6560.700
Path BW1.0001.0011.0041.1131.1230.9921.0220.7540.6830.6720.6250.6690.6880.7820.7280.7110.7560.7840.7860.7730.7970.7680.7130.7000.6280.5530.5760.5240.5200.4940.4160.4420.4250.3970.4430.4370.4690.4660.4580.4610.4710.6110.6070.6130.6190.6830.6610.6260.5990.5170.5240.5890.6600.6140.6000.6380.6620.6630.6520.6730.6480.6020.5910.5300.4670.5110.4750.4480.5050.5390.5500.5480.5330.5360.5460.6960.6890.7080.7490.870
Path BX1.0000.9661.0271.0671.1021.1541.1311.1551.0381.0220.9770.8230.8400.8310.7650.8690.8800.9120.9520.9180.9300.9131.1991.1771.2241.2061.2081.4321.7881.8051.7682.0062.0492.0792.0502.0462.1491.9952.0032.2252.0151.8911.9581.7121.6951.4401.4031.3301.4841.4091.4301.3961.5051.5391.4101.5301.5701.6771.6901.7261.7131.6972.0932.2592.2562.1932.2012.4182.5092.1971.8731.9581.9052.1702.1953.0093.0483.0913.0293.093
Path BY1.0000.9821.2891.2651.3161.2961.3851.4071.4061.2751.0681.1111.2421.2901.5491.7881.8691.8461.6941.8541.7691.6951.8182.0702.4392.6012.4212.4441.7441.5761.5881.6701.7271.6661.7891.7611.7381.7781.9161.9271.8291.9081.8331.7291.6441.4721.3161.4211.3171.3071.4151.5571.5001.5661.4491.4421.5481.4351.3481.3851.1441.1891.0871.0301.0431.1551.0311.0321.0351.1471.1571.0231.0530.7770.7040.6930.6440.6900.6580.631
Path BZ1.0001.1391.1521.5801.6011.6231.6511.6971.6111.5271.5731.6091.9082.3822.4052.3562.6742.7312.7712.7312.7262.8642.6582.6682.9652.6852.0652.1732.2312.0582.2922.3432.4022.4272.4292.4962.4543.2813.1853.2023.2813.4063.5103.6113.3292.5752.7773.0703.1423.1764.6844.4125.6066.4736.7686.6836.1316.7126.4036.1366.5817.4968.8319.4159.3939.93211.54810.73211.45810.91511.32511.6529.84011.39011.0949.8929.7969.6649.2879.102
Path CA1.0001.0111.0111.0391.0221.3661.3261.3331.3661.4181.4611.5041.3861.0721.1561.2781.3081.3221.9501.8371.9361.8872.0501.8271.7821.7501.8311.8411.8861.9582.0172.0761.9141.4801.5961.7641.8061.8252.6922.5362.6732.6052.8292.5222.4602.4162.6273.1523.7643.8113.6294.6124.5214.7204.5524.6134.5305.9485.8366.0715.9816.3876.4926.4855.8814.9275.1255.7275.9497.1448.2498.6248.5167.8138.5538.1597.8198.3868.3737.918
Path CB1.0001.0151.0110.9450.8900.7840.7410.7580.6950.7530.7730.8260.8320.8500.8440.8361.0311.1121.1111.0801.0841.1911.2361.0820.9220.9640.9620.9130.8490.9270.9111.0760.9840.9260.9631.0831.0581.0531.0731.0700.9740.9660.9170.7730.8210.7900.7370.8230.8120.8710.8650.8510.9450.9420.9610.9280.9120.9740.9621.0270.9210.8440.6430.6380.6140.6010.6170.6520.6690.6210.6400.7000.7540.7210.7150.7190.6930.6440.6580.674
Path CC1.0001.2341.3311.3291.2931.2981.4251.4791.2951.1041.1541.1231.2791.2941.7731.7971.8221.8531.9051.8081.7141.7661.8072.1422.6742.7002.6463.0033.0673.1123.0683.0623.2172.9862.9973.3313.0152.8292.9302.5622.5372.1552.1001.9902.2212.1082.1402.0892.2932.2012.2682.0842.0492.1971.9601.6271.3851.3851.3101.3041.3071.3911.3841.3241.3711.5171.5601.5401.5381.5441.4471.4051.3421.0421.1161.1561.0451.1821.1391.057
Path CD1.0000.9930.9540.9350.9591.0141.0400.9660.9951.0881.1721.1221.1131.1181.0781.0010.9760.7670.8080.8290.7650.8520.8710.8930.9020.9030.7940.7920.7020.7020.7400.7710.6570.6840.6890.7350.7780.6920.6990.4980.4500.4540.4770.4930.4760.5110.5030.4970.5080.5470.5510.5230.5230.5580.5000.4580.3490.3470.3330.3270.3350.3540.3630.3370.3480.3800.4090.3920.3890.3910.3770.3500.3410.2680.2820.2900.2670.2980.3330.345
Path CE1.0001.0231.1031.1091.0531.0981.0550.9950.9460.8470.7580.8180.7580.7520.8150.8960.9040.8930.8920.8781.0521.1711.1171.1531.1301.2541.2851.3421.2601.1560.9990.9040.9650.9870.9890.9690.9521.0151.0081.0600.9090.7330.6740.6350.6320.6260.6250.7030.6630.6400.6810.7070.7360.7640.7860.6640.7680.7480.6670.6610.6520.5680.5540.4860.5170.5370.5550.4850.4970.5150.5320.5690.5060.4840.3130.3340.3340.3470.3110.296
Path CF1.0001.0010.9810.9641.0281.0211.0730.9210.7420.6830.6430.6400.6340.6330.7120.6710.6490.6900.7160.7400.7740.7590.7750.6960.6860.6560.5380.5520.5400.4820.4370.3880.4250.4240.4330.4180.4110.4390.4330.4630.4150.3800.2890.2870.2760.2710.2780.2940.3010.2800.2880.3150.3130.3220.2970.2300.2470.2740.2800.2830.4170.3930.4140.4040.4390.3910.3820.3750.4070.4890.5840.5910.5630.7150.6350.7170.6740.6710.6680.681
Path CG1.0000.9950.9520.9851.0901.1211.1071.1051.1101.0401.0100.9650.7490.8020.8310.7510.8500.8530.8890.8940.8800.9140.8981.1561.1731.1831.1951.2731.3651.3541.3121.3311.3271.2401.1681.0290.9720.9940.9110.9881.0141.0841.0911.1151.1071.0961.3521.4591.4571.4171.4221.5621.4441.7561.8471.9751.8141.7791.9021.8361.7111.8651.7151.6451.7181.6141.4801.2791.1571.2361.2641.2661.2401.2191.2991.2901.3571.1641.1211.119
Path CH1.0000.9490.9000.9270.9491.1241.4041.4171.3881.5761.6091.6331.6101.6071.6881.5671.5731.7481.5821.4851.5371.3451.3311.1311.1021.0441.1391.1491.1611.2811.2411.1731.1240.9690.9831.1041.1401.4511.5691.5631.5661.5321.5961.4891.4991.5521.8302.1942.3042.1582.4802.7462.7172.8012.7002.5062.4612.2071.9462.1281.9781.8652.1022.2452.2902.2812.2192.2342.2762.8992.8702.9492.8463.2683.1782.9082.8732.6152.8182.835
Path CI1.0001.0360.9361.0591.0631.1081.1151.0971.1401.1201.4411.4621.4751.5021.5661.6041.6021.4311.3311.2571.4311.4301.4442.0812.0342.1382.2692.3572.8303.2683.4163.3733.0953.3883.2323.0973.3223.7844.4574.7524.7415.0135.8295.4175.7835.5105.7165.8814.9675.7495.6004.9934.4554.8834.8684.9694.8004.7165.0354.9755.3104.7624.3613.3243.3003.1713.1093.1873.3703.4573.2103.3083.6163.8973.7293.6983.7163.5833.7753.936
Path CJ1.0001.2551.3031.4081.2891.2591.3751.3201.1841.3221.1041.1461.1651.1411.0020.9330.8160.8810.8950.9180.8770.8690.9210.9090.9750.8700.8830.7440.7910.7610.7100.7920.7820.8390.8330.8190.8250.8421.0931.0861.0961.1071.2221.1841.1191.0720.9240.9371.0531.0871.3841.4971.4721.4351.5581.3881.3541.3301.4471.7362.0722.0991.9982.5392.2542.5452.3932.3842.4902.3042.2932.4602.2822.1422.2011.8181.8911.7281.7241.823
Path CK1.0000.9070.7600.7900.8830.9171.1021.2721.3301.3131.2051.3191.2581.2061.2931.4731.7351.8501.8461.9522.2692.1092.2522.1452.2252.2902.2332.3252.1102.6482.7492.9702.7192.6562.9012.7852.4982.7892.3292.4172.4582.4082.1141.9691.7221.8581.8881.9361.8511.8331.9441.9192.0862.1282.1202.0622.0762.1152.6932.6672.7402.6443.0362.9532.7022.6692.4302.3842.6912.7103.8183.6583.7403.7363.7313.7403.3933.6003.4412.227
Path CL1.0001.0141.1391.1761.4971.6191.6131.6161.5801.6461.5361.5461.6011.8882.2642.3772.2262.5592.8333.0842.7832.7493.0072.8522.5742.8802.8262.8353.1433.1702.8032.8852.1291.9281.8991.7651.8901.9412.2092.0552.0072.1352.2142.2182.1822.2502.1692.0131.9771.7731.5631.7091.5961.5691.5801.6142.0932.0812.1002.1222.3412.2672.1442.0541.7711.7962.0172.0822.6512.8682.8562.8612.7992.9152.7202.7392.8353.3442.9842.477
Path CM1.0000.9040.9100.9580.9900.9551.0261.0100.9961.0191.0991.1051.0491.0941.0510.9910.9430.8440.7550.8150.7550.7490.8120.8930.9000.8890.8110.8360.9130.9840.9420.9340.9390.9050.8410.8200.6440.6780.6960.6420.7150.7310.7500.7570.7580.7790.7661.0240.9940.9991.0241.0631.1631.1941.2751.2851.3121.3021.2901.5911.7171.7151.6681.6741.8391.9081.6711.4241.4891.4481.6501.6692.2882.3182.3502.3902.4572.3322.1992.091
Path CN1.0001.0220.9371.0161.0431.1141.1231.1461.1381.1271.3901.5001.4981.4571.4621.6061.6671.4601.2441.3011.2651.4421.4581.9992.0252.0532.1112.1762.0972.0942.2292.3902.3722.2982.3322.3242.1722.0461.8021.7031.7421.5961.7311.7761.8981.9121.9531.9381.9202.3682.5562.5522.4172.6992.2532.3392.3782.3302.0461.9051.6661.7981.8271.8731.7911.7741.8811.8561.9911.7761.4751.2551.2551.1871.1811.1851.2611.2541.3121.276
Path CO1.0001.0280.9760.9250.9530.9751.1561.4431.4571.4271.6201.6541.6781.6551.6521.7351.6101.6171.7961.6271.5261.5801.3821.3681.1631.1331.0291.1281.1251.1481.1091.0901.1631.1491.2271.1001.0080.7680.7620.7330.7180.7370.7790.7990.7420.7640.8360.9000.8620.8540.8590.8280.7680.8060.7490.7510.8350.7560.7090.7350.6420.6360.5400.5260.4990.5570.5290.5360.5240.5750.5520.5690.5220.4180.3750.3560.3310.3610.4000.357
Path CP1.0000.9851.1801.3131.2531.2931.2671.4061.4071.2691.1101.1221.1151.2581.2701.7661.7541.7911.7831.7621.7891.5641.7561.8052.0872.6382.7342.6883.1742.9022.7332.8423.1963.1213.1073.1663.1562.8732.8502.7072.2802.4222.3312.1762.4272.3962.5692.5532.5092.5262.5813.3483.3274.1054.4294.4234.3014.3174.7424.9214.3093.6723.8403.7354.2564.3045.9015.9786.0626.1656.3376.0165.7035.8776.0117.1268.8968.9839.3818.679
Path CQ1.0001.0641.1051.1420.9981.0251.0601.0961.1711.0420.9960.6450.6870.6880.7150.7310.7320.7540.7270.7260.7730.8290.8220.7960.8080.8060.7940.7500.8530.8530.8611.2411.2131.2751.2401.3171.2001.1501.2221.3161.6031.7251.8111.7512.2582.0612.1422.1162.0672.1821.9742.0672.3142.4082.1212.0252.0771.8221.8171.6101.6111.6971.7691.5081.5691.5811.6861.7851.5871.6021.1431.0331.0411.0951.1321.0921.1731.1541.0270.982
Path CR1.0001.1291.1371.6011.5341.5691.5671.5651.5691.4231.5101.5601.8242.2272.3192.1042.6412.7412.9622.7112.6492.8932.7772.4912.7812.3222.4192.1691.9122.0911.9441.8332.0662.2062.2512.2422.1812.1962.2372.8492.8212.8982.7973.2123.1232.8582.8232.5702.5222.8462.8664.0384.2243.6943.6573.1083.0272.8693.2033.0393.0853.0123.3063.1743.2703.0042.4062.1582.0491.9032.0782.0432.4122.2062.0772.1602.4292.3722.0902.286
Path CS1.0001.0220.9371.0161.0431.1141.1231.1461.1381.1271.3901.5001.4981.4571.4621.6061.6671.4601.2441.3011.2651.4421.4581.9992.0252.0532.0782.1652.1792.1452.2282.1882.8162.8572.8832.9363.0603.1343.1312.7972.6012.4572.7972.7952.8224.0663.9754.1784.0634.3193.9343.7683.7423.5083.4063.2532.5252.7042.8012.5322.8642.8762.9963.0162.9683.0833.0283.8973.9533.9904.0634.2354.3374.3333.8713.6003.4013.8704.4064.403
Path CT1.0001.2871.3051.3171.3421.3981.4321.4311.2781.1891.1231.2781.2771.2901.8581.8161.9091.8571.9731.7981.7221.8301.9712.4002.5832.7132.0021.8431.7341.7261.7101.7081.9211.8111.7501.8611.9331.9962.0892.0482.0911.8791.8511.7701.4911.5221.5051.3861.5751.5931.6511.7241.4071.4221.4131.5941.6102.2372.2232.2702.2592.2332.2671.9822.2252.2872.6453.3433.4463.1113.7823.9804.2533.9083.8324.0973.9553.6863.6623.740
Path CU1.0001.0631.1041.1401.1941.1701.1951.0741.0581.0110.8520.8700.8600.7920.9000.9100.9430.9850.9500.9630.9451.2411.2181.2671.2481.3331.3731.3071.6611.4751.6651.5661.5601.6291.5071.5001.6101.4931.4021.4401.1901.2371.1301.0711.0841.2011.0721.0731.0761.1931.2041.0640.9880.9710.8710.7670.8390.7800.7360.8290.8850.9030.9000.8750.8810.8981.1431.1321.1631.1231.2891.2531.1471.1331.0321.0121.1421.1501.0661.058
Path CV1.0001.0350.9060.8970.7620.7420.7030.7850.7450.7560.7380.8100.7780.8020.7360.5900.5290.5020.4670.5090.5010.5910.5410.5090.5290.5960.5590.6430.7120.7740.6990.6900.7550.7160.6460.7230.6140.6140.6310.6170.5510.4990.4430.4860.4840.4940.4770.4690.5010.4950.5280.4740.5350.4880.5070.5010.4900.5170.4680.4890.5100.4490.4280.4390.3860.3850.3410.3410.3590.3740.3190.3320.3350.3570.3780.3360.3390.2420.2440.256
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Path DA1.0000.9211.0461.0581.0971.1451.1051.1191.0991.4431.4161.4731.4511.5501.5751.5731.4271.1951.2441.3901.4431.7332.0012.0932.0661.8962.0172.0312.1022.4792.9733.1222.9243.3613.7214.0503.6553.6103.9503.7453.3803.7833.2103.2113.2983.2252.8802.6092.3182.5412.5332.5862.4252.4422.5282.9813.5753.7543.5164.0414.4744.8704.3944.3414.7494.5044.0644.5483.8603.8623.9663.8783.4633.1372.7883.0553.0463.1092.9952.991
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Path DF1.0001.0001.0310.9940.9921.0571.1331.1241.0891.1051.1011.0290.9700.8540.8070.8260.7560.8200.8420.9000.9060.9250.9190.9101.1231.2111.1061.1361.1110.9920.8980.7980.8750.8720.8900.8600.8450.9020.8910.9520.8530.7810.5960.5910.5680.5570.5710.6040.6200.5750.5930.6480.6260.6320.6440.6710.6870.6860.6130.5700.5390.6130.6130.6190.8920.8720.9160.8910.9470.8630.8260.8780.9461.1521.2401.3021.2581.6231.4241.515
Path DG1.0000.9431.0631.1351.1581.1531.1211.1291.1501.4651.4511.4911.4391.6521.6061.4701.4521.3221.2971.4641.4742.0771.9902.0342.0332.0302.2282.3412.1732.1812.4242.1942.0592.1321.8651.8461.5681.5281.4481.6161.5341.5571.5201.6691.6021.6501.5161.2141.0891.0340.9601.0490.9980.8510.8890.8650.9860.9971.3671.3851.4041.4281.4681.3941.3211.3621.3931.6512.0612.0812.0382.3132.3632.3972.3642.3592.4782.3002.0862.619
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Path DJ1.0001.0101.1151.0801.0210.9780.8430.8550.9610.9921.2621.3661.3601.3631.3331.3881.2951.3041.3501.5921.9092.0051.8782.1582.3902.6012.4572.5132.5162.4652.4232.5832.5652.6972.3131.8641.7161.6151.6081.5931.5911.7891.6871.6301.7331.8001.8591.9461.9071.9471.7501.7241.7051.7701.8241.8771.7301.3381.4431.5951.6331.6502.4342.2922.4172.3552.5582.2802.2242.1842.3752.8503.4023.4463.2804.1693.7014.1784.8065.321
Path DK1.0001.0510.9020.7270.6690.6300.6270.6210.6200.6970.6580.6350.6760.7020.7250.7590.7440.7590.6820.6720.6430.5410.5520.5460.5030.5720.4780.4990.4860.5530.5600.7670.7770.7880.8020.8240.7820.7420.7640.7820.9271.1571.1681.1441.2991.3261.3461.3271.3241.3911.2911.2961.3681.3311.3401.3651.7391.7211.7691.7071.9601.9061.7441.7231.5691.5391.7371.7492.4652.3612.4142.4122.4092.4142.1902.3242.4012.8082.5372.557
Path DL1.0001.0300.7600.6880.6770.6300.6740.6930.7880.7330.7160.7620.7900.7920.7790.8030.7740.7180.7050.6330.5580.6100.5670.5350.6030.6430.6400.6300.6220.6360.6850.6890.6540.6830.6560.6180.5880.5260.4710.5080.4710.4670.5060.5570.5620.5550.5540.5460.6540.7280.6950.7170.6810.6810.7090.7250.7250.7470.7200.7190.7660.8210.8150.7890.8010.7980.7460.7030.6190.5850.5980.5480.5950.6100.6520.6570.6710.6660.6720.934
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Path DN1.0000.8971.0020.8360.8680.8820.8650.7590.7070.6180.6670.6780.6950.6650.6580.6980.6890.7390.6590.5470.4660.4660.4400.4390.4400.4680.5340.5620.6010.5520.5410.5790.5590.5210.5670.5220.5010.5230.4910.4500.3890.3520.3760.3850.3850.3770.3710.3950.3930.4130.3540.2850.2950.2940.2810.2910.3220.3310.3270.3270.3280.3070.2980.2850.2210.2370.2450.2220.2510.2520.2630.2640.2600.2700.2650.3420.3460.3500.3410.335
Path DO1.0000.9760.9581.0421.2501.4921.5121.4391.8291.6241.8331.7241.7171.7931.6591.6511.7721.6431.5431.5851.3101.3621.2441.1791.1941.3221.3241.4071.3541.2641.4101.3921.4921.4821.4571.4671.4991.9441.9331.9511.9712.1752.1061.9921.9081.6451.6681.8741.9342.4622.6642.6533.0443.8483.9663.5814.3534.5804.8964.4984.4104.7164.5524.2424.6234.2534.0794.2594.0013.6703.1702.8703.0643.1343.1383.0753.0223.2213.8043.480
Path DP1.0000.9811.1071.1151.5711.5051.5391.5381.5361.5391.3961.4811.5301.7902.1852.2752.0642.5912.6892.9062.6602.5992.8382.7252.4442.7292.9662.6222.6991.9921.8041.7761.6511.7681.8162.0671.9231.8771.9982.0712.0752.0422.1052.0291.8831.8491.6591.4621.5991.4871.4021.5801.5691.5321.6301.6901.6941.6661.7181.6551.5371.5091.3531.1931.3051.2131.1441.2891.3771.4051.3991.3611.3701.3961.7781.7601.8081.7451.4881.556
Path DQ1.0001.0231.1031.1091.0531.0981.0550.9950.9460.8470.7580.8180.7580.7520.8150.8960.9040.8930.8920.8781.0521.1711.1171.1531.1301.2541.3781.3291.4271.4051.3861.4181.5281.5381.4591.5221.4631.3791.3111.1741.0501.1341.0511.0421.1291.2421.2531.2381.2361.2181.4591.6231.5721.7411.5541.5561.5601.7301.7451.5421.5881.1721.0611.0450.9721.0401.0691.2161.1311.1051.1751.2181.2211.2011.2391.1941.1081.0881.1171.031
Path DR1.0000.9990.9981.0000.9070.9630.9951.1631.4191.4781.3411.6841.7481.8881.7281.6891.8441.7711.5881.7731.4811.5371.5621.5311.3441.2521.2121.1541.4661.3021.4701.3821.3771.4381.3301.3241.4211.3181.2371.2711.0501.0920.9980.9450.9571.0600.9460.9470.9501.0531.0620.9391.0751.1571.2151.1751.5151.3831.4371.4191.3871.4641.3241.3871.4431.2711.2141.2451.0921.0890.9650.9651.0171.0600.9040.9400.9481.0101.0810.993
Path DS1.0001.4091.3501.3801.3791.3771.3801.2521.3281.3721.6051.9592.0401.8512.3242.4122.6062.3852.3312.5452.4442.1922.4472.0432.1212.1562.3472.1482.0992.2922.2001.9732.2041.8401.9101.9421.9021.6711.5561.3601.4681.4921.5301.4621.4481.5361.5161.6261.4501.2041.0251.0251.0281.0630.9280.9530.9861.0201.0890.9690.9260.6000.6390.6400.6660.6800.6810.7020.6760.6750.7190.7710.7650.7410.7520.7500.7000.6600.7110.865
Path DT1.0001.1171.1611.3941.6091.6831.6621.5241.6691.5921.5261.6361.8642.1962.3412.3352.4692.8712.6682.8492.7142.8162.8972.4462.8322.7582.9162.9853.0174.4494.1914.4184.3064.6764.1674.0653.9934.3425.2106.2206.2985.9977.6216.7667.6387.1837.1567.4736.9136.8827.3846.8486.3356.0145.5876.1025.9987.0826.4776.0996.3427.1316.9646.9337.0647.0426.4116.3596.0405.0885.4065.2014.8555.4165.3475.7335.6965.5996.1236.598
Path DU1.0001.0921.0480.9401.0500.8770.9100.9250.9060.7960.7410.6480.7000.7110.7290.6970.6900.7320.7220.7750.6910.5740.4880.4880.4620.4600.5030.5070.5130.5660.5480.5180.4960.4280.4340.4870.5030.6400.6930.6900.6910.6760.7050.6570.6620.6850.8080.9691.0180.9531.0951.2131.1391.1061.0560.8200.8780.9090.8220.9300.9340.9730.9790.9641.0010.9831.2651.2831.2951.3191.3751.4081.4071.2571.1691.1041.2561.2561.1991.229
Path DV1.0000.9990.9710.9751.0711.1110.9730.8290.8670.8430.9610.9721.3321.3501.3691.3921.4311.3581.2871.3271.3571.6092.0082.0281.9862.2542.1791.9212.1011.9531.8422.0752.2172.2612.2522.1912.2062.2472.8622.8342.9122.8103.2263.1382.8712.8362.5822.5342.8602.8804.0573.8874.2444.5544.2243.9664.0743.3663.4993.1983.0303.0683.3973.0333.0363.0453.3763.4053.0103.0992.2872.0712.0391.8962.0302.0852.3732.2082.2072.229
Lower percentile1.0000.8870.7600.7020.6770.6570.6740.6550.6830.6720.6380.6430.6580.6380.6190.6230.5420.5030.4840.5060.4760.4720.4650.4870.4610.4460.4500.4570.4520.4260.4260.4130.4160.3930.4170.4050.3900.4190.4210.4440.4010.3650.3310.3220.3110.3230.3180.3170.3150.3160.3170.2990.3040.3070.2890.2590.2830.3010.3020.2990.3110.3090.3140.2950.2830.3190.2990.2800.2940.2860.2900.2990.2930.2690.2730.2870.2690.2410.2650.275
Median1.0001.0101.0131.0261.0531.0801.1031.1021.1351.1021.1161.1221.1471.1061.0771.0031.0391.0661.0411.0101.0521.1671.1811.1531.1591.1781.1951.1881.2611.2611.1971.2201.2121.2451.2241.2691.2271.2811.3121.2631.2021.2211.2201.1681.2281.2421.2671.2651.2891.2501.2891.3461.3451.3081.3101.3601.3761.3721.3511.4291.4471.4701.4261.4391.4481.4751.5081.5121.4811.5041.4431.4581.5041.4431.6231.5481.4391.5761.4691.567
Upper percentile1.0001.2601.3861.5481.5881.6541.6561.7171.7971.6731.8441.9081.9992.2122.3332.3672.6242.7362.8042.8102.7132.8412.8202.6402.8082.7212.7832.7653.1193.1523.2323.2123.3583.3753.3993.7083.8324.0234.4494.6864.5625.1285.3265.4205.3995.3305.6125.1465.1655.6495.0764.9635.3355.0305.0005.0614.8845.3635.4555.5515.9626.1126.3086.2256.1075.6845.8715.9186.1046.7167.8267.7197.7207.3777.6917.6698.3858.7008.8528.317
Original history1.0000.8760.7460.7800.7590.8650.8751.1991.2151.2321.2531.2881.2221.1591.1941.2221.4481.8081.8251.7882.0292.0722.1032.0732.0692.1742.0182.0252.2512.0381.9121.9801.7321.7141.4571.4191.3451.5011.4251.4461.4121.5501.4881.5331.4081.1281.0110.9600.8920.9740.9581.1311.0340.9741.0121.1391.1121.1071.1281.1241.0241.0150.9640.8120.8630.8300.7750.8650.8540.9150.9090.8940.9000.9191.1931.1861.1961.2091.3341.292
Chart data · Pool-return differences across rebuilt histories · 180-day blocks
Summary of pool-return differences
StatisticLP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Minimum−33.37
Lower quartile+1.52
Median+1.90
Upper quartile+2.81
Maximum+16.27
Original history+1.65
Proposal minus current LP/xyk, percentage points per year
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
+1.12Yes
−33.37Yes
−3.40Yes
+1.86Yes
+2.03Yes
−2.01Yes
+0.27Yes
−10.08Yes
+1.79Yes
+2.93Yes
+7.77Yes
+1.65Yes
+1.77Yes
+2.79Yes
+2.06Yes
−11.16Yes
+3.13Yes
+1.78Yes
+1.58Yes
+1.97Yes
+1.90Yes
+4.62Yes
+4.50Yes
+3.08Yes
+1.70Yes
+16.27Yes
+3.11Yes
+2.54Yes
+1.81Yes
+0.23Yes
−5.46Yes
+2.21Yes
+1.89Yes
+2.73Yes
+8.21Yes
+2.57Yes
+1.60Yes
+1.70Yes
+1.93Yes
+2.15Yes
+3.58Yes
+1.61Yes
+1.72Yes
+3.10Yes
+1.90Yes
+1.82Yes
+2.14Yes
+3.10Yes
+1.68Yes
+2.33Yes
+1.96Yes
−2.20Yes
+0.25Yes
+1.63Yes
+2.18Yes
+1.40Yes
+1.97Yes
+5.82Yes
+2.09Yes
+3.03Yes
+0.70Yes
+2.46Yes
+3.39Yes
−2.00Yes
+1.86Yes
+1.79Yes
+2.73Yes
−2.54Yes
−0.04Yes
−3.19Yes
+1.52Yes
+1.78Yes
+1.78Yes
+1.99Yes
+1.29Yes
+2.71Yes
+2.72Yes
+2.86Yes
+2.55Yes
+3.28Yes
+5.12Yes
+1.63Yes
+1.86Yes
+6.07Yes
+6.40Yes
−2.10Yes
−0.84Yes
+3.10Yes
−0.02Yes
+2.95Yes
+3.47Yes
+1.95Yes
+3.40Yes
+1.49Yes
+1.94Yes
+2.94Yes
−1.35Yes
−1.82Yes
+1.78Yes
+0.35Yes
Chart data · Prices on rebuilt histories · 90-day blocks
Price divided by starting price, sampled weekly
Rebuilt historyWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sample
Path AA1.0000.8620.8740.9821.0141.2911.3961.3911.3931.3631.4201.3251.3341.3881.3221.3721.4111.1921.3801.3441.1981.1871.1711.0200.9940.8720.9000.8070.7390.5640.5590.5380.5270.5400.5710.5860.5440.5610.6130.7000.6750.7250.7140.7040.7210.7770.7810.7410.7740.7430.7010.6660.7850.7170.7450.7360.7190.7590.6870.7190.7480.6590.6290.6450.5660.5040.6130.6450.6900.6340.6210.6640.6410.5980.6510.5990.5750.6000.5570.523
Path AB1.0001.0071.4191.3591.3901.3881.3871.3901.2611.3381.3821.6161.9732.0062.0492.0392.0162.0461.7892.0082.0642.3873.0173.1102.8083.4133.1213.2633.1743.6173.6585.0155.0815.1525.2405.3865.1134.8474.9955.1485.7015.0905.0955.1105.6655.7155.0525.2013.8383.4753.4223.1823.7433.8304.1274.1523.9404.1113.9503.7243.5413.1712.8363.0622.8372.5202.4472.3371.8141.9432.0121.8192.0582.0662.1532.1672.1322.2152.2462.267
Path AC1.0001.0101.4551.4221.4951.4541.5451.4081.3481.4331.5441.8802.0232.2152.2212.0152.1372.2082.5833.1523.2832.9783.7393.8804.1933.8383.9144.1854.0403.7654.1033.7743.6203.7803.5513.2572.8132.5472.7192.9262.9663.3323.4404.3794.7374.7174.7264.6234.8164.4934.5244.6835.7215.9595.4066.7867.0437.6116.9666.8067.4337.1366.4007.1475.9686.0515.7335.8046.4285.7395.7445.7616.3876.4435.6955.8644.3273.9184.1843.985
Path AD1.0000.8930.8310.7850.8930.8930.9011.2991.2701.3341.2981.3791.2561.2041.2161.6901.6791.7151.7071.6871.7121.4981.6811.7281.9982.5252.4132.5042.1931.8691.9541.9012.1662.1903.0033.0423.0853.1383.2253.4803.5383.5343.2052.6852.7933.1213.2423.8934.4954.7004.6414.2574.4934.3404.2654.5524.4984.8014.3063.9433.0052.9842.8682.8112.8822.7942.5062.2092.4162.2462.1182.3872.5492.6012.5902.5192.5372.5842.3542.255
Path AE1.0001.2641.3031.1771.4301.5051.6081.4781.4491.5491.4961.3941.5191.2831.1010.8870.8170.7680.7650.7580.7570.8510.8030.7760.8250.8570.9160.9690.9940.9220.9511.0391.1201.0721.0631.0681.0300.9560.9330.9500.9830.8600.8510.7230.7050.6680.7460.7080.7180.7010.7690.7390.7750.8140.7560.7580.8430.7630.7160.7410.6480.6420.5450.5310.5040.5810.5540.5720.5600.6220.6220.5610.4910.4960.4930.5560.5610.7810.7650.849
Path AF1.0001.0001.0541.0990.9360.9740.9821.0471.1090.9860.9950.7100.6420.7310.7480.7561.1151.0501.1071.0791.1711.0441.0181.0001.0881.3051.5691.6331.4381.3731.4081.2361.2321.0921.0921.1511.2001.0221.0641.0791.1421.0151.0250.7310.6610.6660.7000.7240.6990.7500.7380.7290.7080.7190.7380.7050.6980.7400.7310.7840.6990.5810.4940.4940.4670.4690.5970.6460.6430.6440.6300.6560.6130.6170.6380.7530.9030.9481.0300.918
Path AG1.0001.0941.0170.9591.0811.1541.1771.1721.1401.1481.1701.4901.4751.5391.5562.2942.1612.2782.2202.4112.1492.0962.0592.2392.6873.2073.1112.4462.5742.6432.4382.7162.7752.8452.8752.8772.9572.9073.8863.6173.4463.5753.6793.1073.5963.5033.1233.0933.0512.6582.5912.2732.3582.5412.4312.4112.4232.3372.1702.1161.6631.7501.7971.6581.8472.1372.2482.4032.2082.1652.3152.2352.0822.2692.0872.0022.0911.9642.0282.372
Path AH1.0001.0671.0921.0931.0711.0531.1221.1151.1721.0050.8100.7460.7020.8540.9861.0301.0180.9331.0220.9750.9341.0021.1411.3441.4331.4301.6601.7701.7661.8672.1712.0182.1542.0522.1292.1911.8502.1412.0862.0852.2702.0482.0232.2132.0991.8942.1201.7991.8001.8481.8071.6141.6751.7851.7731.8641.5991.2881.1861.1161.1111.1011.0991.2361.1661.1201.2141.2461.3321.3411.3701.3601.3471.6621.7931.7911.7411.7481.5811.655
Path AI1.0001.0050.9690.9000.8780.6900.7260.7450.6880.7660.7830.8020.8110.7880.8050.7770.7640.8160.8060.8600.7710.7060.5380.5340.5140.5030.5580.5240.4810.4150.3760.4010.4100.4110.4030.3960.4220.4190.4400.3980.3570.3990.3330.3450.3510.3440.3020.2810.2460.2660.2700.2770.2580.2660.2610.2890.2900.2610.2290.2310.2290.2590.2610.3630.3610.3640.3620.3690.3680.3350.3330.3160.2660.2830.2720.2540.2830.2800.2740.293
Path AJ1.0001.1221.1541.3341.6861.7381.5701.9082.0082.1461.9721.9332.0672.1672.1262.4002.4173.4053.2623.3353.3323.3273.3363.0263.2103.3174.0343.7533.6653.8994.0434.0513.9854.1093.9603.6763.6103.2372.8542.6582.6972.6332.8912.7752.8592.6272.1041.8871.7911.6641.8171.7862.1092.1542.1852.1552.1512.2592.0972.1052.3392.1181.9872.0581.8001.7421.6391.6321.7051.5771.5701.6841.5621.4671.5071.2451.2941.1831.2141.404
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Path AM1.0000.9990.8920.8300.7840.8920.8920.9001.2971.2681.3331.2961.3781.2921.4031.2501.2201.1981.3031.5631.8661.8901.7992.2872.0302.2922.0122.2462.1322.1642.1122.3192.2262.2932.1071.6871.5131.4371.3351.1821.2751.4091.4421.4582.1502.0252.1352.0812.2602.0141.9641.9301.8452.0702.1282.4613.1103.2062.8953.5193.7033.9583.6363.5653.8123.7533.8344.9744.9444.9895.0415.5635.3875.0954.8804.2084.2664.7934.7574.608
Path AN1.0001.1141.1381.1671.1791.1801.2121.1921.5941.5471.5561.5941.6551.6321.6251.6101.6081.8081.7051.6471.7511.8191.8791.9671.9281.9681.9201.9382.6952.6772.7342.7212.6902.7302.3872.6792.7553.1854.0263.8373.8284.0484.7074.3744.6704.4494.6154.7494.0114.6424.5224.0314.0744.7665.8166.0575.4956.8987.1607.7377.0826.9197.5567.2546.5066.8136.9297.1226.7616.4096.6056.7568.0089.99810.0969.88811.22311.46111.58112.779
Path AO1.0001.0501.0151.3091.1951.2421.2271.1991.2651.1451.1981.2471.0991.2271.3211.3871.3411.7291.5781.6401.6201.5831.6711.5121.5831.6471.5591.5421.4201.6131.6321.6911.7661.7031.7261.6952.2252.1832.2712.3722.2642.3222.0382.0321.8001.8011.8971.9781.6861.7541.7681.8851.8962.0182.1642.1472.0802.1112.1041.9661.8521.6321.5421.5771.4451.5131.4841.6751.6872.3772.2772.3282.3262.3232.3292.1122.2412.3162.1542.104
Path AP1.0000.9750.8550.9090.9450.9770.8530.8760.9060.9371.0010.8910.8510.7140.7160.7040.7260.7000.6500.6380.5720.5040.5510.5130.4830.5450.5470.6230.6300.8640.8750.8870.9020.9270.8800.8350.8600.8801.0431.2121.1921.2001.2261.5901.5811.5951.6111.7781.7221.6291.5601.3451.3971.4451.5431.3731.3120.8500.9060.9060.9430.9640.9640.9940.9580.9630.9291.0671.0380.9490.9380.8540.8380.9460.9521.3411.2851.3141.3961.343
Path AQ1.0001.1071.2051.0871.0741.1751.1151.0061.1250.9550.9560.9810.9600.7990.8370.8200.8380.7530.7420.7090.5970.6100.6030.5550.6310.6380.7350.6550.6390.6270.6820.8190.9770.9900.9421.1971.0631.2001.1291.1351.1241.3871.4971.4951.4541.4591.6031.6631.4561.2411.2981.2621.4501.4431.4271.4481.2661.4211.4611.6892.1352.2011.9872.4162.5422.5552.4252.4622.4032.6382.5322.6092.3971.9201.7221.6351.5181.6581.7001.798
Path AR1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8540.8330.6550.6890.7070.6530.7270.7430.7610.7560.7270.7120.7300.7720.7920.7350.7580.8290.8930.8540.8470.9020.9720.9780.9280.9680.9300.8770.8340.7470.6680.7210.6680.6630.7730.7530.8180.7290.7110.6990.7600.9111.0881.1021.0491.3331.1841.2221.3061.2611.1751.2811.1781.1301.1801.1081.0160.8780.7950.8490.8690.8660.8840.8540.8390.8960.8850.9450.8470.7760.5920.5870.5640.5820.571
Path AS1.0000.9580.9800.9790.9770.9800.8890.9430.9741.1391.3911.4481.3141.5611.5341.8111.6571.5601.6221.8241.7811.7731.8071.8011.6401.6271.7941.8622.0121.8421.7991.9651.8871.6921.8891.5781.6381.6651.6311.4671.4421.5361.5261.6041.3761.1091.0210.9610.9570.9480.9461.0641.2481.2691.2681.1500.9631.0021.1201.1631.3971.6131.6861.6651.5271.5131.7001.7542.2332.4162.4062.4112.3582.4562.2922.3082.3892.8173.1173.206
Path AT1.0000.9420.9791.1011.0751.0711.0911.0870.9900.9820.9320.7850.8350.8100.8970.8010.8020.8040.8910.8990.7950.8180.6040.5470.5380.5010.5130.5670.5830.5760.5750.5780.5410.5260.5020.3900.4170.4320.3910.3870.3100.2780.2640.2450.2680.2630.3110.2840.2680.2780.3130.3060.3410.3030.3060.2180.1970.1990.2090.2160.2080.2240.2200.2170.2230.2210.2420.2320.2390.2200.1760.1580.1500.1390.1520.1490.1770.1620.1660.163
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Path BD1.0000.8810.9640.8960.8450.9531.0171.0381.0341.0051.0121.0311.3131.3841.2241.2600.9300.8420.8290.7710.8250.8480.9650.8980.8760.9321.0841.0771.1001.0951.0821.0980.9601.0781.1081.2811.6191.6691.5071.6001.6671.6781.6511.7151.6852.1682.1992.2202.2602.3562.4132.4102.2682.9792.9233.0412.9953.1993.2513.2482.9452.4672.5672.8682.9792.2722.0532.0682.1762.2502.1702.3302.2942.2642.3162.4962.5112.3822.6422.665
Path BE1.0001.1351.1591.1761.1591.1571.2161.1291.1331.2591.1401.0691.1071.0260.9510.8930.9180.7580.7880.7200.6820.6910.7650.6830.6840.6860.7221.0411.0181.0701.0401.1051.0070.9651.0251.1041.3451.4471.5201.3751.4271.2501.0651.1131.0831.2341.2481.7111.7341.7581.7881.8382.2662.3602.1412.6882.7893.0142.7592.6952.9432.8262.5352.8302.3632.6322.7432.8102.8072.5072.3322.2032.5072.5052.5303.6453.5633.7453.8223.780
Path BF1.0000.9951.0680.9910.9300.9560.7890.8210.7500.7110.7200.7970.7110.7360.7470.7590.7800.7410.7020.7240.7400.8771.0961.1061.0831.2301.3801.3081.4601.3851.4061.3731.5071.4461.4901.3691.0970.9840.9341.0151.0541.2661.4621.5281.5091.3841.5151.4461.3851.4861.6921.9942.0531.9592.0211.9802.1992.2001.9841.7351.7541.7421.9661.9862.7602.8602.8573.2123.0292.9273.1123.2323.3383.4943.4253.4973.1433.0972.8752.886
Path BG1.0001.0661.0671.1101.1351.1351.1701.1281.1261.1991.2851.2761.2361.2871.3691.4221.4681.5371.5071.5381.3821.3621.3021.0971.1191.1070.9410.9410.9791.0011.0011.0320.9950.9931.0581.1341.1251.0901.1061.1311.2351.1861.0631.1880.9921.0291.0461.0250.9000.8380.7330.7910.8210.7510.7340.8020.7700.6900.7710.6440.6680.6790.6650.5840.5440.5540.5260.5340.5210.5720.5490.5660.5200.4160.3730.3550.3290.3600.3740.385
Path BH1.0000.9760.9581.0421.2501.4921.5121.4391.8291.6241.8331.7241.7171.9681.9541.9961.9871.9641.9931.7431.9562.0112.3252.9393.0302.7363.0543.2293.3123.0763.1703.4653.7333.5733.5433.5613.4343.1883.1092.9133.1193.2043.6463.3923.3123.5243.6543.6613.6023.7143.5793.3223.0243.4753.8484.1893.7803.7344.0853.8733.4953.9123.3203.3213.4113.5083.4393.5113.1553.1092.9722.5032.5552.5272.3282.6442.6752.7722.7632.768
Path BI1.0000.9150.8610.8951.0070.9830.9790.9980.9940.9050.8980.8530.7180.7160.7040.9410.9140.9190.9410.9771.0071.0360.9550.7390.7970.8810.9160.8180.7610.7190.8180.8170.8251.1891.1621.2221.1881.2631.1511.0561.0731.1001.0521.0421.1051.0911.1701.0430.8660.7370.7370.6970.6230.6080.5970.6490.7790.9300.9420.8971.1391.0121.1421.0741.0700.9461.0621.0911.2621.5951.6441.4851.8051.8992.0301.8651.8291.9551.9982.027
Path BJ1.0001.0231.2121.5141.5281.4971.6991.7351.7611.7361.7331.8201.6901.7521.6611.4991.6781.4241.4251.4631.4311.2771.1571.0281.1271.1231.2081.2121.3321.3821.2101.0311.0781.0491.1951.2091.6571.6791.7022.0011.7762.0051.8851.8781.9621.8151.8061.9381.7981.6881.7341.4331.4121.4101.2791.0711.1151.2451.2941.5541.7941.8751.8521.6991.8601.8051.5561.5781.7731.8302.3292.5202.5102.5142.4592.5622.3902.4072.5622.746
Path BK1.0000.9981.0480.9730.9771.0860.9830.9220.9550.8350.8270.7030.6840.6900.5810.5930.5870.5400.6140.6210.6440.6720.6480.6570.6450.8470.8770.9360.9520.9510.8620.7220.7510.8400.8721.0471.2091.2641.2481.2261.2941.1711.2261.2761.1231.0731.1000.9650.9630.8530.8530.8990.8400.8260.8580.8431.0851.1011.1111.1311.1791.2071.2061.0771.0020.8800.8930.7810.8760.9011.0421.3171.3571.2261.4901.5681.6761.5401.5562.295
Path BL1.0001.0380.9090.7740.8100.7880.8970.9081.2441.2611.2781.3001.3361.2941.2281.2821.2311.1611.1040.9890.8840.9540.8840.8780.9511.0460.9830.9240.9210.9620.8900.8850.9500.8810.8270.8500.7020.7300.6670.5840.7200.7770.7760.7540.7570.8320.8630.7560.6440.6730.6550.7470.7840.7840.8090.7800.7780.8290.8880.8820.8540.8670.8640.8070.7600.6970.6610.6690.7410.6610.6620.6640.7360.7430.6560.6760.4990.4520.4700.439
Path BM1.0000.9871.0101.0881.0951.0391.0841.0410.9820.9330.8360.7480.8070.7960.7960.8390.8740.7450.7750.7810.8330.8820.7840.7920.5650.5100.5040.4940.5280.5100.4750.5180.4760.4570.4770.4480.4110.3550.3210.3540.3530.3480.4170.4640.4430.4570.4480.4970.4970.4490.3920.3970.3990.4670.5700.5930.5380.6760.7010.7580.6940.6780.7400.7100.6370.6540.6630.6510.8550.8390.8730.8600.9180.9330.9320.8450.7080.7370.6860.600
Path BN1.0001.0271.0040.8970.8120.7220.7910.7890.8050.7780.7640.8160.8060.8390.7610.8070.8340.9751.1901.2401.1251.4121.4661.5841.4501.4161.2231.2721.1621.1011.1151.2351.1021.1031.1071.2271.2381.0941.1261.0551.2341.5051.5681.4221.7861.8532.0021.8331.7911.9561.8781.6841.8371.7061.7121.9031.7231.6161.6741.4641.4491.2311.2001.1371.2691.3331.2381.3521.3291.5691.4351.3511.4051.5801.5431.5361.5651.5601.8992.044
Path BO1.0000.9981.0551.2271.1401.2171.1591.2031.2381.0451.2101.1781.0511.0341.0751.0591.1311.1501.1491.0420.8730.9081.0141.0541.2651.4611.4801.5561.5131.6081.4651.4031.4911.6061.9562.1052.2102.1372.7552.4912.3482.2331.9991.7881.9301.7891.7751.9232.1152.1332.1072.1052.1162.1982.2702.3762.3292.3782.1372.1062.0131.6951.7301.7121.5761.9131.8701.9661.9122.0321.8511.7731.8842.0302.4712.6602.7932.7002.9063.051
Path BP1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9951.0141.2911.2781.3131.2681.4561.4151.2951.3541.5401.4331.3991.4891.5441.5471.5221.5691.5121.4041.3781.2361.0591.0590.9560.8360.8450.8390.9470.9561.3291.3201.3481.3421.3271.4861.4281.3461.2801.1461.0251.1071.0261.0181.1021.2131.2231.2081.1921.2121.2421.1881.1761.2471.2311.3201.1780.9780.8320.8320.7870.7901.0061.0881.0831.0851.0621.1061.0321.0391.0751.2681.5211.5971.6091.665
Path BQ1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9951.0141.2911.2781.3131.2681.4561.4151.2951.2701.2681.3321.2361.2411.3791.2481.1711.2131.0611.0500.8920.8690.8940.9230.9660.9470.9670.8690.8560.8180.6890.7040.6960.6410.7280.7080.6930.7700.7700.6950.6070.6140.6100.6880.6950.9660.9600.9801.1611.1751.2171.2711.2261.2421.2201.6011.5711.6351.6101.7201.7481.5881.6881.6241.5161.6911.6691.7901.7781.7481.7601.7982.3322.3182.3772.403
Path BR1.0001.0741.0571.0431.0671.1501.1571.0981.1461.1011.0380.9870.8840.8450.9420.9300.9970.9910.9740.9811.0021.3001.2921.3041.3171.4531.4241.3291.4831.4641.5691.5591.5331.5431.5772.0452.0332.0522.0732.0302.0523.0262.8513.0052.9293.1812.8352.7652.7162.9543.5444.2314.1974.3594.5024.7134.6204.7164.2384.1763.9923.3623.4323.3953.1272.9093.2403.3113.3943.4303.4323.5273.4684.6374.5014.5254.6374.8134.9624.481
Path BS1.0000.9291.0140.9971.1771.0771.0141.0541.1861.1581.1531.1751.1711.0931.0901.1121.0741.0561.1271.1141.1891.0660.9760.7440.7390.7100.6520.6500.6070.5720.5040.4760.4870.4460.4840.4960.5300.5340.5460.5160.4810.4850.5020.5920.7100.7450.6980.8020.8880.9670.8720.8620.9540.9180.8560.9560.9431.0111.0050.9880.9951.0161.3181.3101.3221.5101.8431.9201.7422.1872.2692.4522.2452.1932.3952.2992.0622.3032.1692.286
Path BT1.0001.1941.2091.1511.4631.2991.4661.3791.3741.4351.3271.3211.4171.3111.2181.3011.2391.2861.3231.1171.2931.2601.1231.1121.0970.9560.9650.9220.9130.9680.9561.0250.9150.7590.6460.6460.6110.6080.6100.6520.6420.7700.8570.8180.8440.8270.9180.9180.8280.7240.7320.7270.7930.8140.7510.8370.8550.8760.8860.8860.9110.8951.1971.1621.1681.0821.1731.2041.2871.2961.3241.3141.3011.6051.7321.7301.6821.6881.6591.771
Path BU1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8540.8330.6550.6890.7070.6530.7270.7430.7190.7650.7950.8220.7180.7370.7630.7890.8420.7500.7170.4640.4940.5200.5320.6310.7880.7950.7790.8840.9030.9160.9030.9010.9470.8790.8150.6300.6790.7510.7690.7771.1461.0801.1381.1091.2051.0731.0471.0941.0811.1541.0350.9480.7220.7170.6890.6750.6930.7320.7510.6980.7370.7620.7350.7900.7770.7670.7850.8460.8510.8070.8430.8090.7630.7711.058
Path BV1.0001.1701.4271.4871.3491.6931.7571.8991.7381.6981.8541.7801.5971.7872.1732.2862.4432.2452.2012.3542.2722.1172.3082.1232.0362.1262.1132.2232.3762.1832.1412.2892.2102.0592.2442.0641.9802.0671.9421.9271.9352.0162.0291.9972.0752.0382.6222.6602.6852.7342.8492.9182.8612.8342.8303.1833.0012.9003.0833.2023.3073.4623.3943.4653.1144.6054.3384.5734.4574.8404.3144.2084.1334.4955.3936.4386.5206.2076.4307.113
Lower percentile1.0000.8840.8560.7930.8100.7330.7370.6700.6880.6900.6530.7040.6800.6940.6810.7070.6650.6490.6200.6440.6050.6170.5600.5370.4890.5010.5130.4990.4900.4530.4750.4790.4500.4480.4780.4050.4180.4210.3990.3890.3540.3570.3480.3660.3670.3640.3350.3220.3080.3080.3270.3220.3510.3320.3440.3410.3330.3060.2820.2590.2520.2750.2730.3520.3600.3580.3450.3020.3060.2980.2780.3040.2730.2840.2790.2650.2900.2860.2810.296
Median1.0001.0201.0161.0261.0611.0661.0871.0761.1371.1201.1301.1031.1031.0631.0831.0451.0461.0531.1051.0361.0771.1051.1091.0751.1081.1261.1271.1771.1371.0981.1511.1511.1131.0971.1901.2241.2231.2651.2521.1971.2551.3061.3611.4401.4151.3091.3561.3711.2191.2091.2601.2431.3291.4021.4301.3941.2971.2461.2251.2871.2181.2141.2191.2451.2881.3251.3331.3931.3791.5731.5021.4781.4841.6341.7271.6821.7121.7181.7051.926
Upper percentile1.0001.1901.4261.4751.5231.6601.6831.8701.8171.7291.8781.8692.0142.1392.1652.2932.3722.2722.5193.0223.1062.8753.2803.0953.1793.3973.7753.6673.6033.7393.9754.0023.9414.0523.8883.6563.5793.4934.2764.3404.3744.9085.0274.9825.5035.5404.9955.1224.7604.6904.6204.6085.5065.7505.7446.6596.7727.4867.1267.5747.0537.0986.9257.0576.4126.6806.7206.8926.7036.2926.4546.5827.7257.6688.3177.3397.3567.4696.4237.031
Original history1.0000.8760.7460.7800.7590.8650.8751.1991.2151.2321.2531.2881.2221.1591.1941.2221.4481.8081.8251.7882.0292.0722.1032.0732.0692.1742.0182.0252.2512.0381.9121.9801.7321.7141.4571.4191.3451.5011.4251.4461.4121.5501.4881.5331.4081.1281.0110.9600.8920.9740.9581.1311.0340.9741.0121.1391.1121.1071.1281.1241.0241.0150.9640.8120.8630.8300.7750.8650.8540.9150.9090.8940.9000.9191.1931.1861.1961.2091.3341.292
Chart data · Pool-return differences across rebuilt histories · 90-day blocks
Summary of pool-return differences
StatisticLP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Minimum−21.06
Lower quartile−0.55
Median+1.77
Upper quartile+3.10
Maximum+19.28
Original history+1.65
Proposal minus current LP/xyk, percentage points per year
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
+2.41Yes
−9.80Yes
−10.16Yes
−0.64Yes
undefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
+0.93Yes
−0.90Yes
+1.58Yes
+1.54Yes
+5.32Yes
−2.28Yes
+1.74Yes
+1.77Yes
−7.44Yes
+2.04Yes
−7.20Yes
+14.76Yes
+2.67Yes
+1.57Yes
−7.63Yes
−0.58Yes
+1.82Yes
+6.39Yes
+10.37Yes
+1.54Yes
−6.82Yes
+1.52Yes
+1.94Yes
+5.09Yes
+11.97Yes
−21.06Yes
+3.13Yes
+2.19Yes
+3.26Yes
+17.01Yes
+1.64Yes
+8.92Yes
+1.71Yes
+1.98Yes
+3.07Yes
+3.38Yes
+1.77Yes
+1.59Yes
+1.86Yes
−4.97Yes
+1.90Yes
−0.52Yes
+19.28Yes
Chart data · Prices on rebuilt histories · 30-day blocks
Price divided by starting price, sampled weekly
Rebuilt historyWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sample
Path AA1.0000.8620.8740.9821.0140.9470.9450.9930.9210.8460.7550.6270.5330.5130.5040.5960.5450.5130.5680.6180.5580.5510.4920.6180.6410.6930.5630.5630.5780.5660.5010.4900.5170.4680.4900.4510.4580.4470.4910.4710.4470.4540.4430.4300.4560.4710.5510.6720.6240.5860.6020.4970.5010.4890.5340.5130.4610.4620.4190.4440.4680.5070.5580.5630.5560.5810.6000.6280.6160.7130.7430.6740.8460.9780.9270.8370.9370.7950.7070.676
Path AB1.0001.0071.4191.3591.3901.4731.4541.3341.4611.1421.2311.3611.3931.3841.4151.4171.3891.3651.4071.5381.6571.5861.5221.4131.3781.0831.1311.1191.1501.1101.3441.0401.1211.2391.2681.2941.3321.2280.9500.9950.9751.0001.0581.1521.1851.0011.1591.1291.1331.0621.0320.9850.9720.9370.8700.8480.7610.7660.7530.7830.7940.8120.8320.8410.8420.7960.5150.5490.5500.5650.6120.6730.6780.6800.6660.6800.6110.6020.6250.547
Path AC1.0001.0101.4551.4221.4951.6851.5351.4701.5621.5331.6101.4951.5001.7181.6231.8471.8461.8642.3272.3502.3022.6122.6092.5422.4092.6883.0032.7592.7052.8932.8702.5972.7192.8302.4922.5722.6302.4102.6142.7242.9623.5544.2444.5814.7124.6504.6454.6644.8085.2555.6635.4194.8005.0194.8825.5635.6976.0415.9636.3965.7605.2834.5644.1314.4103.5823.6203.5974.0593.8593.7893.3982.9953.2073.0902.8692.8172.5262.6982.400
Path AD1.0000.8930.8310.7850.8930.9071.0891.2571.3151.2201.2561.1580.8951.0491.0811.1131.0260.7930.7950.7790.7660.8160.8490.8060.6790.7220.6280.5700.6040.6250.7150.6250.6420.6640.6860.9430.9360.9560.9520.9140.9130.8640.8600.8880.8960.9130.9510.9740.9731.0941.0320.9971.0791.0551.1131.0071.0731.0871.2031.0741.0991.2241.2501.2821.2951.2531.2481.3031.2061.3021.2781.4421.4521.8832.0011.9251.7972.0041.7651.685
Path AE1.0001.2641.3031.1771.4301.2721.2160.7870.8390.8420.8960.8910.8530.8790.8930.8750.7680.7160.7000.7380.6680.6990.7620.7540.7750.7480.8400.8760.8970.8960.9050.9230.9190.8940.9000.8220.8030.8770.8420.7970.7590.9650.8560.9650.9580.9210.9020.9250.9320.9651.1381.3641.5141.6361.4971.4631.9531.8961.9061.9531.9931.9301.8251.7481.5081.7081.5181.5331.0941.1491.1961.0541.0061.1161.2461.2301.3181.3101.5711.876
Path AF1.0001.0001.0541.0990.9361.0721.0791.5211.4571.6101.5681.3981.3841.4731.4141.4571.3391.0721.0161.1351.0771.0931.0801.2971.4981.5661.4391.4981.3981.4081.6121.7851.5931.5951.5991.6721.6591.6071.6311.6521.8561.9162.4382.5262.3562.3732.4562.8973.3503.2632.9092.8813.7933.7213.8723.8143.4673.3802.9653.1543.2732.9693.1503.2543.8073.9403.9363.9523.7053.5794.0784.1245.6545.9215.8475.3645.8725.6025.2715.251
Path AG1.0001.0941.0170.9591.0811.0891.5341.4691.5021.5401.1961.2811.3261.1491.0811.0771.1241.0401.0781.1131.1651.1421.3301.3801.4911.3651.3711.4911.7892.1362.1582.3322.1342.0852.2771.7091.5451.5561.6371.5571.3151.5221.4831.3501.4171.3701.7671.6131.7861.9441.7541.7331.5601.4291.0891.0810.9831.0461.0871.1231.0041.0180.9991.3121.2881.3561.3651.3431.3951.3731.3711.2441.0421.0441.0431.0450.9481.0061.0340.874
Path AH1.0001.0671.0921.0931.0711.4751.4941.5151.5411.6791.7641.6521.8992.5302.3102.4012.3712.3172.3232.5762.5982.2972.1882.1712.3522.5872.4642.2102.4682.0612.1422.1532.0761.9281.8801.8481.9251.7961.8091.8922.6662.5552.6122.6972.8932.5812.1431.8241.5941.6371.6931.7511.6971.7671.6491.6611.8171.6631.6251.7741.6201.5461.4811.5891.8091.7491.7962.0441.9021.6811.7331.7722.1012.6392.0412.2002.4332.4902.5522.649
Path AI1.0001.0050.9690.9000.8780.9160.8180.8190.8210.9220.8060.7980.6780.6320.5330.6170.6010.5360.5390.5520.5730.5910.5750.6020.5900.6030.5880.5750.6070.5490.5210.4720.4650.4320.4630.4800.5010.4810.4540.4110.4620.4360.4210.4480.4020.3970.3790.3190.3290.3600.3880.3710.3910.3610.2790.3010.2910.2990.3090.3200.3510.3410.3440.3500.4460.4910.4290.4400.4550.4750.4890.4490.3600.3100.3410.3440.3400.3390.3760.409
Path AJ1.0001.1221.1541.3341.6861.7501.9921.9902.0103.0132.9662.9272.9943.1182.9812.9533.1313.0903.9853.6383.7813.7343.6493.5983.5913.7723.8254.1205.0175.3995.6396.4066.4826.7167.0126.1856.0945.8254.9065.0534.8624.5385.0625.1044.6824.0443.6613.9084.1214.0164.3623.8873.7944.0374.0163.8424.0213.7354.0794.0104.4784.4744.5186.5106.3647.2747.2527.4037.1507.8217.6387.6047.7477.7248.0048.3578.0608.1688.2948.097
Path AK1.0001.0391.0731.1231.1011.1061.1091.0061.0670.9740.9201.0471.0461.1311.0721.1971.1361.1531.1671.2921.1541.1551.1181.6491.5531.6371.5301.6351.5031.4731.6201.6361.1671.0551.0631.1321.2901.5191.6201.8461.8871.9341.9542.1002.1212.0772.3582.4082.4412.4642.5092.6152.6832.6712.6472.6432.6782.5622.6532.9353.0233.0033.0673.0533.0183.3153.4403.0132.5672.8823.1023.2573.1493.5183.7553.3683.0842.3512.5752.567
Path AL1.0001.0011.0041.1131.1231.2851.2901.3441.3531.3791.2601.1941.2091.1991.3651.3641.3771.9841.9341.9261.9621.9561.9342.1442.1631.9121.8861.8482.0522.0531.8781.6941.4811.4971.4871.5531.3731.4141.0430.9840.8960.8890.8440.6480.6870.6100.6160.4400.3410.3650.3790.3420.3590.3420.4340.3860.4380.4390.3980.4220.4310.4230.3800.3350.3660.4910.4970.5040.5130.4530.4100.3650.4000.4240.4270.4360.5650.5620.5380.534
Path AM1.0000.9990.8920.8300.7840.7830.7850.7120.7550.7370.8170.7290.7300.6320.6380.6340.7160.7230.7050.6920.7530.9031.0231.0051.3191.2941.2941.3551.3281.3561.2681.2751.2101.2631.2131.2991.3891.2761.2511.2461.1911.0031.0241.0261.0821.0541.1451.0201.0851.1281.1651.0181.0620.9521.0630.8881.0280.8730.8730.8960.8850.8721.0451.1621.1090.9981.1271.0601.0561.1391.6801.5821.6681.5631.6551.4721.4861.0600.9901.104
Path AN1.0001.1141.1381.1671.1791.1301.1751.2021.2021.2851.3001.7821.8051.8021.8251.7372.2081.9602.0042.3762.9662.9953.0373.0222.9873.0322.9382.9493.2393.3622.8632.9412.8393.2593.1703.2013.1803.1273.1483.1433.2703.3433.3443.5513.7803.7593.5973.7243.8724.6495.3685.6135.7265.8596.3136.3516.1875.7825.4464.7984.4434.4294.0324.0003.7994.2214.8735.0955.0314.6845.2314.3684.5344.7284.6464.9604.9015.2314.8674.752
Path AO1.0001.0501.0151.3091.1951.4521.4961.3511.6431.9711.8961.7701.9742.2202.0832.1571.8861.8681.9342.1402.2012.1722.1382.1682.4352.5142.2962.1322.1972.4022.4732.2532.1582.2942.4712.6362.9652.8952.8822.8252.8012.8152.7152.5792.4082.6862.6522.8432.9252.6972.0862.2492.1722.1832.1041.9541.8391.7581.7411.8471.8521.8021.8141.8482.3532.1982.4972.5272.6182.4762.4852.7612.5002.2382.3992.3812.3072.3412.4012.426
Path AP1.0000.9750.8550.9090.9450.9780.9650.9640.9681.0461.0711.0821.5961.4851.4611.5181.4911.9192.0342.0082.1541.9211.9852.0052.2132.1432.1852.2342.0472.2212.3182.0272.1872.2232.2791.9871.9061.9901.8701.5691.7421.7431.5731.5951.5941.5701.8812.0932.3252.3262.0991.8352.0041.8411.8061.9311.9061.7091.5651.1931.1371.1731.1301.1291.2021.2841.2521.3591.2121.1751.1341.3021.2671.2641.3041.6601.7961.7891.5641.688
Path AQ1.0001.1071.2051.0871.0741.0270.9951.0101.0061.0310.9390.9000.9560.9380.9450.9621.2261.2141.2801.2471.3541.2071.2381.2391.2141.1941.2771.2551.4821.3551.2461.4101.4151.4751.4841.9982.0272.0462.0842.1311.8841.9391.4311.3831.4411.3071.6411.7031.6991.5051.5061.5861.4931.5311.3431.3401.2671.4941.7921.8821.8511.9832.0531.8562.1002.0862.0612.0921.8301.9661.8842.0202.3012.4702.2402.8132.9193.1542.9603.065
Path AR1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8490.8360.7770.8320.8600.9220.9150.8860.9360.9320.9210.9350.8180.8150.8510.7870.7830.9220.9590.9900.8650.9550.9721.0141.0381.0660.9200.9321.0481.0810.9741.0201.0620.9350.9150.9140.9130.9150.9140.9130.8160.7590.7170.7310.7280.7080.7130.7110.7600.7340.6840.7330.7210.7440.7170.7040.6910.7800.7851.1060.9730.9220.9510.9731.1111.1191.1011.1441.1121.1251.5421.5621.5841.5821.496
Path AS1.0000.9580.9800.9790.9770.9781.0341.0600.9851.1561.2161.3001.1941.2321.2101.2921.2771.3631.5641.5211.3921.3751.1381.2721.3211.5871.9462.0172.0211.9882.1752.2412.3062.1261.6451.7481.7451.8331.7021.5721.4421.2451.1271.3891.4481.2351.2841.2951.1561.1571.1601.2861.2151.0851.0090.9530.9300.9941.0011.0230.9910.9691.0180.9901.0520.9040.9590.9911.1591.2311.3871.4811.5111.5411.7091.7241.5241.5691.5801.610
Path AT1.0000.9420.9791.1011.0751.0981.1251.0761.0661.0601.1011.1371.1901.1530.9570.8150.8150.7700.8230.7380.6760.5150.5190.5530.5490.5770.5190.5220.5330.6920.6750.6360.5600.5290.5410.6140.6170.6420.6470.6610.5700.5780.6500.7090.6330.6330.6350.7040.8570.9220.9690.9360.9650.8970.8480.9650.8910.8520.5510.5880.5910.6170.5710.5680.6100.5800.5700.5110.4500.4820.4920.4900.4760.4990.5770.7290.7520.6790.6050.590
Path AU1.0000.9740.9231.0310.9781.2181.2561.1341.3791.5901.5041.4971.5011.5701.6751.6561.7671.5851.4351.2761.3981.3931.3731.4331.3771.2981.2531.2801.6601.6501.6791.5992.0321.8042.0372.0132.2322.2511.9902.1342.2251.8961.9731.8291.8111.5391.4991.4211.2061.2061.2391.2121.1961.1961.2601.3141.2931.4671.4981.5201.5311.7902.1852.2762.0652.1632.1422.1141.8412.0622.0332.0292.1312.0272.2042.6453.1583.1983.2324.767
Path AV1.0001.0221.3251.3171.3291.3251.2531.2481.2511.2991.0051.0841.1981.1851.2141.1611.1501.2191.2681.4261.3921.3861.4091.3951.3771.1991.4531.3291.2511.3011.3211.4231.4321.3591.4181.4281.3561.2851.3241.4001.5471.5841.6012.4252.4792.4802.5562.4642.5762.5442.3342.5552.3762.3332.5373.0443.0143.2283.3433.0223.2613.3843.4812.9403.4033.2613.6053.6903.7304.9855.0965.0985.2565.3685.7315.8625.8695.7515.3485.726
Path AW1.0000.9400.9370.9780.9051.0331.0201.0931.0861.0991.4431.4161.4731.5631.6631.7241.7281.7001.7311.8041.8481.8461.7911.6711.6831.7421.7541.9391.9852.0062.9122.9883.1933.2163.2853.3223.6163.2633.2232.6592.4082.3712.2052.2652.1582.2392.3041.9461.6081.6721.5281.4471.5761.6921.5691.4731.5811.5621.6671.4951.5081.4301.2901.4441.2251.1971.2841.1911.1181.5781.5671.6011.5931.5311.4241.3451.5311.5301.4701.441
Path AX1.0001.0630.9680.9270.9861.0170.9971.0180.9150.8690.8680.8700.7890.7620.7860.8590.9250.8860.9390.9270.9940.8870.8310.8370.8661.0221.1381.1301.2751.2881.8921.8491.9511.7651.8482.0671.9841.7801.9871.8781.4761.5541.5951.4341.2581.2551.1111.1121.1231.1241.1551.1361.1461.1651.1941.1421.0531.1371.0411.0171.0951.1451.1311.0381.1361.0461.0871.0681.3741.5011.5401.6461.6581.6131.6871.6661.5281.6731.8681.844
Path AY1.0001.0310.9940.9220.9060.8610.7690.6960.6190.6230.6140.5870.4940.4960.4900.4890.4820.5770.5050.5180.5360.5540.5470.5230.4060.4350.4540.4470.4770.4850.4730.4270.4780.4060.4060.4010.4600.4470.4090.3840.3670.2370.2530.2570.2330.2490.2540.2550.2590.2550.2540.2670.2270.1930.1930.1830.1690.1850.1840.1880.1720.1490.1510.1690.1750.1970.2350.2380.2270.2780.2550.2500.2680.2550.2430.2520.2590.2190.2210.230
Path AZ1.0001.0951.0441.0011.0730.9550.8410.9200.8560.8090.8171.1351.1281.1271.1401.5631.5841.6061.7241.7101.6571.6811.6871.7842.0741.9281.9311.7251.5621.3881.5881.5381.4541.3931.2011.1340.9410.8010.8010.7540.7740.7140.7950.7490.7480.7470.7490.6800.5010.4540.4470.4160.4680.4440.4210.4340.4290.4470.4990.5190.4940.5360.5500.5870.5920.5130.4960.5270.5470.5510.5510.5210.5180.5960.7260.7810.8200.7930.8250.922
Path BA1.0001.0371.0391.0221.0541.0651.1051.1391.1721.1051.1351.2921.2021.0841.0631.1061.0901.1641.2541.2001.1901.1961.1331.3771.4491.5491.5531.5041.4231.3631.1811.0671.2971.3641.4581.2981.2861.3631.3451.4921.4681.9621.9051.8041.8061.8112.0082.0252.1112.0291.9131.8191.8661.5421.6031.4651.2831.2961.9121.8011.7631.7421.5861.5561.7561.8101.8661.7991.7961.7591.7601.8541.9331.8371.6231.6711.2341.1171.0781.237
Path BB1.0001.0521.1251.0331.0131.0111.0811.0430.9720.9170.8320.8830.9121.0611.0501.0791.0421.1961.2291.2091.6161.5691.5161.5651.6391.6061.9032.1172.0202.0852.0182.1811.9961.9502.1302.0722.0392.1022.0262.1672.1262.2122.1792.2072.1912.1062.0642.1161.9812.2772.5212.7443.6423.5353.5543.6423.5073.7023.3493.5063.5992.7942.9923.0992.8012.4672.1022.1982.1382.4502.4002.1071.9631.8371.7861.8981.7291.6561.8091.736
Path BC1.0001.0810.9890.9661.0551.1441.1541.1401.1391.1911.2791.2591.2431.0011.0671.0681.1111.1351.0601.1831.1681.2521.2711.2421.3561.3021.1681.0430.9440.8390.9020.8210.8150.7740.6520.6510.6580.6580.6770.7150.7300.7050.6930.7150.6470.7320.7350.7650.7820.8020.8100.8110.8040.7200.6440.6950.7060.7240.7650.7850.7590.8050.7940.8520.7600.7740.8150.8500.7250.8250.7920.7100.7930.7660.8180.8340.8310.8080.8760.963
Path BD1.0000.8810.9640.8960.8450.9180.8190.6800.5790.6340.6420.6510.6630.6310.6740.6790.6940.6890.7020.8940.8850.9090.7060.6390.6290.5850.6520.6450.6880.6170.5930.5210.4850.4240.4580.4810.4250.4370.3230.2970.3390.3430.4700.4880.4930.4350.4480.3310.3320.3530.3510.3360.3870.3920.4060.4240.4020.4170.4100.5270.5140.5080.5560.5270.4750.4740.4980.4850.5150.5020.4880.5560.5630.8310.8200.8800.7850.6510.7280.718
Path BE1.0001.1351.1591.1761.1590.9651.0021.0180.9981.0341.1931.2481.2321.2641.2291.1251.1111.0111.2631.2751.2491.4181.5961.6571.7071.7561.4901.6091.4911.4791.5711.4821.6701.7831.8191.8841.7891.6951.7471.8872.0092.1542.1382.1401.8082.0922.0381.8171.7531.7761.7442.2902.2512.1812.2142.2062.1151.9401.6751.5171.5381.5141.4941.5291.6481.6701.5971.5821.6771.7811.7511.7631.8012.3802.1552.0222.0931.8311.9061.729
Path BF1.0000.9951.0680.9910.9300.9330.9340.9140.9521.0041.0171.1261.0051.1271.1531.1661.7191.6201.5731.5811.6201.6821.8011.8061.9221.9122.0171.7041.9721.9211.8081.8771.9341.9901.8351.7501.9451.7611.6521.9162.1322.0342.0992.2472.1672.1962.1562.8322.5762.5282.8532.8733.0192.9843.1842.8562.8553.1403.1673.1293.0823.4323.5083.5963.6343.2053.3343.3613.5843.3003.5233.3573.4833.5423.7863.4793.4113.6473.6783.633
Path BG1.0001.0661.0671.1101.1351.1181.1911.2771.2671.2531.2041.1801.2101.2471.2931.3311.1241.3011.3201.3021.2991.3651.4141.4161.3871.3641.3891.5331.4841.4041.3511.4081.4421.4401.2871.4071.4471.4281.4271.6501.5091.4211.4771.6401.6161.7261.7541.7521.6831.5871.5091.3511.2281.1731.2031.0551.1061.1171.6091.5731.5931.6841.9581.8201.9431.8701.8031.6751.6331.3171.1211.1211.0600.9931.1211.0541.0501.0971.0781.415
Path BH1.0000.9760.9581.0421.2501.4601.5271.5081.3831.4291.5201.5121.4471.4841.4701.4681.6511.5571.4061.7091.7981.9211.8531.8511.8591.7421.6971.7211.7501.7991.6961.6881.8121.6801.5771.6391.7091.4561.5151.6161.7411.6661.6521.7041.7702.1262.4542.5662.6262.6543.9143.6873.9833.7033.9654.0724.2104.2063.7573.4943.3293.2513.4593.5863.5933.6474.1554.2025.7616.3076.2596.0636.1536.1906.1705.6175.5725.2924.5044.503
Path BI1.0000.9150.8610.8951.0070.9730.9911.2621.2501.2691.1510.9641.0031.1331.1771.2161.0631.0911.0410.9981.0701.2191.0971.1641.2031.4071.7361.6131.7221.6411.6611.5321.7061.7441.7882.0682.0422.1892.1752.1702.1812.2352.3202.4172.4582.5272.3982.2732.6102.5382.3232.2952.1482.2272.2312.1952.0802.0591.7501.7051.6691.5931.6341.4341.4301.3851.2861.3251.4491.4751.6471.3761.4281.4311.4241.4071.4291.2491.2881.408
Path BJ1.0001.0231.2121.5141.5281.5801.4621.4551.5611.3591.4101.4531.4951.3871.4591.5601.4331.4051.3671.2511.2361.1251.1050.9260.9631.0761.1221.1661.2041.2601.2061.2081.1891.2261.1811.2251.2231.3751.2971.3961.3361.3251.3311.3671.3351.4211.4731.4761.6431.5671.6171.5851.6481.8411.9132.2972.9103.0233.6304.1913.9643.9794.4224.0033.7563.9223.8673.8604.0544.5164.0324.0364.0484.2583.9684.3253.9783.8164.3884.859
Path BK1.0000.9981.0480.9730.9770.8440.7980.8160.7480.7730.8530.8260.7810.7450.7830.7270.7290.8100.8060.7930.7980.8150.9300.9320.8450.8970.9701.2351.3361.3301.3061.2141.1471.3061.3051.4301.6291.9192.0452.2092.2712.6263.3193.2873.5613.9163.9503.9024.2054.6484.7584.8096.5186.3495.6615.6066.1805.1605.3565.4465.1555.1835.3105.5125.6804.7674.9595.5425.7565.6035.7775.5675.1685.2546.3107.2857.6177.5227.6317.605
Path BL1.0001.0380.9090.7740.8100.8110.7950.8120.7290.6880.6790.6630.7000.6310.6430.8190.8110.8340.8350.8890.8840.8460.7630.7430.7040.7860.8400.7980.7560.7790.8400.8100.8210.8061.0591.0571.1601.1141.1481.0501.1631.0381.0391.0750.9711.1801.2421.3271.3401.8631.8511.8902.0932.0362.1641.9711.7621.7501.7332.1382.3452.0502.2132.2492.3052.0751.8442.0202.0142.1801.8831.7051.8201.6841.9352.1432.3322.1041.6541.740
Path BM1.0000.9871.0101.0881.0950.9941.0611.0851.0860.9610.9601.0080.9360.9040.8880.8940.9141.1851.2121.4371.7941.8111.7701.8391.8072.3252.4172.2092.0932.1192.2192.1932.2261.9472.1852.3332.3332.4062.3192.2472.2252.3602.3292.3942.4902.5112.6772.8342.9622.8562.8952.8422.7062.8762.7672.5832.9592.9303.1073.0673.2733.2763.2863.6433.6753.4073.2193.6643.6614.0523.9573.9404.0143.8973.8233.9783.9184.1844.3113.961
Path BN1.0001.0271.0040.8970.8120.7900.7570.8040.8660.8140.8120.7190.7200.7170.8170.9631.0261.0241.0810.9781.0241.0660.8770.8740.8650.8640.9831.2001.2491.1331.3431.3351.2781.3231.4641.9281.9531.9802.0141.8151.9381.9152.0441.8701.8561.7981.8251.8181.8351.8542.0461.9822.0161.4381.3001.3101.3341.2731.3141.2871.4341.4371.4141.4581.4051.3871.1961.2121.3621.3231.3431.1741.3171.2861.4331.4641.5011.5171.7081.824
Path BO1.0000.9981.0551.2271.1401.3381.3011.3061.4341.5301.5111.3861.5181.4501.3201.3091.2431.0471.1151.1561.1581.1391.3641.2851.3551.3201.3691.4261.2941.6241.6891.8461.9891.9041.8881.8451.9401.6641.3411.3341.4181.5271.8602.1331.5221.3751.3851.4571.4351.4161.4491.5611.5121.5221.5751.8581.8331.7701.7391.8571.8761.8851.8181.6881.6461.4971.4821.2601.2271.2611.4231.4371.9981.9742.2492.2753.1193.1603.2513.208
Path BP1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9951.0751.0691.0231.0601.1671.2111.0610.9040.9700.9670.8800.8730.8290.7860.8770.8320.8450.8351.0031.1581.2111.1681.2041.2311.4601.7801.9682.0142.0363.0022.7222.3902.2261.9462.1412.1302.0382.1102.2972.2622.7113.0162.8782.5432.6181.9321.7501.6761.8261.6801.6111.5761.5381.6891.6211.7181.9511.9742.0462.1362.1912.3422.1522.1102.2722.2592.2792.3032.3812.0822.3362.4022.7773.4883.620
Path BQ1.0001.0201.0160.9880.9950.9791.0711.0150.9161.0371.0131.0081.0271.0221.0331.1401.1041.0441.1761.2561.2811.2761.1571.1811.1681.0761.1511.2341.2261.2051.2071.3611.4531.4821.4761.4171.4561.4051.6141.5591.5881.5831.4411.5481.5191.7141.7262.4322.1992.3032.3972.1111.8441.8821.8621.7151.7891.6551.6471.7681.7211.9902.5152.5932.3412.4892.3542.3432.3492.4362.4332.4302.4362.5032.4932.4252.4422.4882.7152.669
Path BR1.0001.0741.0571.0431.0671.1921.2191.2491.2621.2511.1801.3291.4201.4101.4241.9791.9662.0082.1372.2162.2202.1841.9392.1032.1592.3072.2762.3902.3102.9792.2892.4092.4732.2822.5412.7182.6542.6422.6922.5582.7302.6982.8802.6182.4822.5582.6163.1012.8852.7263.1023.1003.3263.6203.2673.2273.4163.4853.4713.3763.2823.1643.1593.3633.6053.7053.3903.3493.0493.0422.9592.9803.0353.8423.5633.3453.4372.8393.0793.159
Path BS1.0000.9291.0140.9971.1771.1481.2711.1351.1361.1031.0630.9870.9630.8960.8160.7820.8310.8950.9660.8950.8880.9621.1401.3671.4361.3451.3181.3131.3151.2861.2531.3031.1901.1281.1421.2121.1091.0960.9981.0251.0131.0810.9700.9560.9901.0951.1271.1121.0720.9960.9710.7630.8160.7720.7390.6370.6520.6590.9030.9150.9300.9150.9510.9341.2021.3011.4011.7061.8361.9291.8461.8311.8401.7821.8661.9421.7101.6331.7531.739
Path BT1.0001.1941.2091.1511.4631.4231.4431.4231.4201.3561.3291.3061.3921.3781.3881.4181.8391.8281.8651.8451.6991.9301.8161.8021.9522.1472.1172.0672.2692.1782.3202.1042.6422.7422.9633.0383.3423.3703.3293.1202.8203.1903.2033.1143.3573.7123.7993.8403.5213.8553.6783.5244.2083.8423.9933.9434.0424.3404.2734.2164.3784.3384.3324.8714.5934.7644.4524.1943.6954.1614.3184.6664.2714.0904.3653.9153.5852.7332.6852.919
Path BU1.0000.9570.9490.9540.9200.8530.8080.9020.8560.8100.8811.0571.2621.2441.0881.0991.0921.2321.3131.3041.3711.1761.2011.2861.3211.5031.3801.6581.9142.0012.0501.8051.7241.7681.5511.6041.9542.1022.2081.9351.9891.9562.6142.6382.6262.6332.8022.7872.7992.6232.5472.4332.5162.1382.0831.9742.1642.2172.3012.3712.3952.0922.1482.2222.2982.5112.5322.5022.4992.5342.4772.6042.5332.4782.5152.4552.6952.5872.9272.939
Path BV1.0001.1701.4271.4871.3491.5591.8121.6841.7981.8901.9301.9581.9312.0672.1212.2672.2832.3322.1682.3212.3842.7133.4493.4943.5433.6043.6133.8443.9863.9944.2633.8993.6723.8184.2934.0084.4304.5354.5835.9165.5955.3594.6214.3544.5584.4684.5624.0994.8355.7986.0895.7025.6105.2434.9394.3514.2594.4244.5694.7834.5854.7114.5465.2205.0774.7884.1994.4684.6424.3654.4313.8744.3484.2043.8623.0932.7742.6342.7592.871
Lower percentile1.0000.8840.8560.7930.8100.7940.7710.6990.6380.6430.6490.6310.5560.5340.5100.5990.5550.5430.5440.5640.5610.5520.5240.5620.5560.5790.5260.5290.5410.5520.5050.4750.4790.4260.4590.4560.4580.4470.4170.3880.3810.3590.4250.4330.4120.4030.3910.3210.3300.3540.3560.3370.3640.3450.3010.3160.3110.3200.3250.3380.3650.3560.3500.3370.3800.4770.4400.4480.4510.4570.4240.3790.3670.3300.3560.3600.3790.3780.4040.431
Median1.0001.0201.0161.0261.0611.0681.0851.0891.0861.1041.1431.1361.1961.1411.1141.1501.1241.1751.2421.2531.2651.2351.2551.3721.3781.3641.3851.4951.4831.4341.6161.5681.5371.5461.5191.6551.6841.6361.6341.6331.6651.7051.6271.7541.6931.7201.7961.8181.7261.8151.7491.7501.6861.7291.6261.6361.7761.6591.6821.7361.6931.7661.8161.7181.7831.7801.8001.7521.8131.7701.7561.7681.8871.8601.9681.9821.9451.9181.8381.834
Upper percentile1.0001.1901.4261.4751.5231.6661.7641.6561.7711.9561.9241.9271.9672.4762.2772.3772.3562.3292.3272.5412.9022.9463.3773.4123.4463.5043.5063.6883.8553.8834.0273.7403.5883.7204.1173.8884.2874.3314.3644.7184.5834.3664.5554.5414.6604.3944.4554.0664.7025.1495.6115.5795.7065.7515.5345.5986.0965.6735.4315.3325.0555.1004.5615.4615.5744.7844.9445.4645.7606.1836.1745.9766.0666.1436.2857.0367.3127.2127.2327.276
Original history1.0000.8760.7460.7800.7590.8650.8751.1991.2151.2321.2531.2881.2221.1591.1941.2221.4481.8081.8251.7882.0292.0722.1032.0732.0692.1742.0182.0252.2512.0381.9121.9801.7321.7141.4571.4191.3451.5011.4251.4461.4121.5501.4881.5331.4081.1281.0110.9600.8920.9740.9581.1311.0340.9741.0121.1391.1121.1071.1281.1241.0241.0150.9640.8120.8630.8300.7750.8650.8540.9150.9090.8940.9000.9191.1931.1861.1961.2091.3341.292
Chart data · Pool-return differences across rebuilt histories · 30-day blocks
Summary of pool-return differences
StatisticLP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Minimum−26.09
Lower quartile−1.85
Median+0.91
Upper quartile+1.95
Maximum+29.12
Original history+1.65
Proposal minus current LP/xyk, percentage points per year
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
−2.03Yes
+0.75Yes
−1.95Yes
+1.38Yes
+1.27Yes
−26.09Yes
+1.25Yes
+0.53Yes
+0.12Yes
+29.12Yes
−1.76Yes
+1.20Yes
+0.91Yes
−20.27Yes
+2.42Yes
−1.48Yes
+2.21Yes
+1.99Yes
+1.38Yes
+1.29Yes
−0.68Yes
−19.97Yes
−0.44Yes
+1.15Yes
undefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
+5.06Yes
−2.16Yes
−0.77Yes
+2.02Yes
+0.17Yes
+2.06Yes
−8.14Yes
+1.55Yes
+1.17Yes
+2.26Yes
+12.22Yes
+24.63Yes
0.00Yes
−5.61Yes
+2.00Yes
−4.43Yes
−20.89Yes
+1.90Yes
−9.69Yes
−7.79Yes
−0.19Yes
+1.73Yes
+10.43Yes
Chart data · Prices on rebuilt histories · 1-day blocks
Price divided by starting price, sampled weekly
Rebuilt historyWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sampleWeekly sample
Path AA1.0001.0831.0131.1681.1291.2151.2071.0541.1021.0910.9660.8420.8190.8720.7990.7751.0901.2001.2001.1180.9490.9781.0171.0300.9801.0461.0431.0611.0491.0200.9910.9861.0521.1650.8670.7210.7070.6630.6770.5690.5410.6120.6960.6670.6690.6900.7000.6720.6700.6620.7530.7020.7440.7600.7300.8210.8050.9441.0351.0201.0021.0291.0481.1631.2691.3911.3631.2601.2241.2671.1371.1861.1611.1111.2161.1711.2501.2261.2681.277
Path AB1.0001.0051.0351.0140.8780.8160.8710.9221.0151.0941.4091.3551.2181.1581.1671.2021.1131.1171.1731.2661.2161.2851.6681.8011.9291.8722.0341.8261.9371.8851.9002.0212.2121.7941.6951.7931.8141.9762.0451.6221.6031.7561.6331.7381.7541.5881.6351.5061.3451.3371.4601.5691.5181.6441.5231.5621.6781.6391.5581.3371.2891.1931.1441.1151.1511.0961.1061.2251.1671.2781.2001.2001.2771.3341.4771.6031.8421.8712.0401.852
Path AC1.0001.1221.1551.1031.0020.9871.1891.2541.1921.0951.0581.0851.2841.2551.1721.0390.9541.0601.1251.0781.0511.0201.0751.3681.2611.3031.3201.0671.0361.0280.9360.8900.8190.7180.9210.7960.8790.9290.9080.8850.8360.6760.6990.7390.6510.7480.7550.7560.6160.6000.5180.5310.5930.5480.4820.4580.5250.4890.6300.5210.4560.4230.3830.3640.3730.3980.3740.2840.3010.3040.3360.3190.3290.2900.2910.2770.2600.2620.2940.327
Path AD1.0000.9750.9721.1811.0651.1271.0740.9980.9450.8550.8040.9280.9461.0241.1051.1861.1231.3091.2681.4141.3901.3151.4761.3141.2281.2401.4211.3211.1761.1411.1881.3551.3841.3951.3281.4721.2641.1861.0731.2571.4431.5661.5741.4341.2901.2241.0871.0680.9030.8921.0250.9080.9420.8270.7670.6990.6860.5800.5730.5760.5660.6570.6480.6400.6610.5550.5540.5310.5450.5510.5710.5320.4280.3920.3490.3410.3560.3570.3680.433
Path AE1.0001.1651.1651.3331.4121.4011.4931.6481.7031.4171.4141.6251.6591.7141.8691.9562.0151.9362.2032.3842.0302.2462.3042.3232.0201.8612.0421.8071.7631.7571.8541.7361.7231.7472.0192.1971.9511.7891.8182.0821.9922.0521.9562.1001.9271.7911.7331.4811.5901.6861.4741.7031.4961.5781.5521.6621.5401.5811.6121.3691.3051.2751.1221.0961.0581.0090.9640.9230.8690.8660.7920.8040.7890.9410.8250.8400.9021.0591.0521.148
Path AF1.0001.0811.1231.0671.0621.1611.1691.1721.0061.1901.2161.3361.2621.4621.3751.4011.3371.4521.3951.2301.4011.2461.1511.0331.0811.0671.0211.0190.9330.9090.9220.8390.9140.9450.8960.8890.8840.8540.8910.8670.8090.8930.8010.8020.9050.9160.9101.0600.8650.9440.9550.9021.0111.0010.9310.9630.9530.9010.8160.7890.7340.8100.7650.8140.8060.9000.9801.1321.1561.0091.0121.1000.8991.0671.2181.0780.9721.0601.0291.078
Path AG1.0000.8880.9050.9420.9870.9121.0380.9420.9310.8120.8540.8580.8750.9040.8380.8220.8360.8670.8930.9961.0521.1301.0111.0271.0561.0770.9230.9060.9340.8290.8360.8230.8740.8921.1071.1031.0421.0401.0430.9071.0911.0871.0291.0581.0230.9320.8440.8610.9890.9991.0541.1431.2390.9391.0121.0151.0120.9531.1071.0851.0671.1741.1021.0631.3391.2841.2601.1961.0231.0310.9550.9480.8950.8050.7830.8090.6830.5650.5720.500
Path AH1.0001.1601.0511.0351.1100.9810.9760.9930.9410.9070.8190.7480.8391.0261.0021.0120.9640.8370.7310.7160.7260.7260.7130.7790.7370.8280.8270.8080.7740.6620.6730.6450.5800.5560.5670.5590.4650.5510.5620.6650.6260.6330.6860.6890.8440.7710.7360.8430.7830.8690.9000.9360.9970.8310.8950.8580.8650.7980.7970.8040.7620.8360.7800.8310.8230.7720.7570.7700.8370.8370.7610.7420.8290.8170.8090.8250.8220.7610.7200.838
Path AI1.0000.9770.9691.0271.1151.0811.1691.3241.3401.2191.3151.3731.2651.2991.2971.2531.2801.1311.1661.1251.0671.1041.1261.1641.1861.1131.1251.1061.1820.9550.9451.0191.0651.1341.1611.1091.1611.1311.0871.1861.0351.0481.0491.0521.0681.1621.2421.2981.1871.2231.1731.1731.0161.0601.0771.0811.0371.0130.9720.8500.8230.7310.7320.7620.8350.8631.0301.1121.2161.2101.3241.1531.1180.9130.8730.8900.8000.7200.7780.855
Path AJ1.0001.0461.0501.0400.9890.9781.0180.9570.8560.9630.9330.9540.9390.9911.0000.9611.2281.2041.3571.2381.2111.2921.3031.3731.4511.4211.3501.3171.2421.4201.4931.5611.4091.3191.3521.3641.3061.4371.4121.4961.5861.8201.8832.1941.9421.9911.9861.8091.8801.9111.8002.1312.3392.5452.4822.4892.3542.4862.4642.1672.3072.2482.3812.8543.0742.6322.6032.3982.4502.4062.4272.3312.1562.4862.6062.5882.8383.2713.6663.623
Path AK1.0000.9230.8720.7470.7240.7000.8340.7951.0490.9421.0661.0461.1361.0640.9990.9750.7270.6410.5850.5080.5320.5020.4130.3300.4540.4300.4440.4120.3990.3580.3830.3600.3630.3950.4560.4850.4910.4780.6190.5460.5260.5120.5350.5160.5240.6090.6160.6350.6280.5950.6520.7090.6580.6750.7330.6080.5940.6320.6540.5410.4960.5230.4900.4390.4460.3810.3850.4240.4590.4360.4730.4780.5600.5340.7140.7490.7860.7940.6540.714
Path AL1.0000.9760.9010.7500.5690.6120.5740.5900.5670.6480.6460.8051.0221.0161.0521.1371.2761.1791.1731.1831.0411.1211.0441.0110.9531.0580.9470.9960.9930.9610.9540.8640.8220.7120.7510.7190.7990.8260.7390.8280.7280.9640.9610.9330.9761.0541.1101.1571.1741.4171.6551.9222.2202.5282.2132.5132.4182.1532.1432.1292.3382.2732.7302.9332.4812.7183.1273.3422.9682.9952.7062.6082.6172.2652.2072.4532.1552.0461.8361.787
Path AM1.0001.0831.2421.2521.3431.2951.2211.1951.2171.1251.0921.0341.1081.0591.0151.1001.0210.9620.9570.8630.8380.7910.7620.7360.6130.5250.5080.6180.6050.7770.7930.7770.6900.7300.8870.8460.8300.7520.8320.8180.9961.1141.1671.1911.2041.2821.3071.3171.3161.2851.3731.2511.2211.1251.0731.0620.9740.9421.0861.0641.1031.1261.1081.0101.0711.0401.3091.2911.3771.3691.2731.0761.1301.2381.4071.3381.3641.3091.3081.338
Path AN1.0000.9850.9630.9600.8240.7980.7100.6650.7580.8711.0110.9810.9461.0601.0761.1801.1271.1901.2241.1541.1581.1701.1271.4581.6851.8681.7701.8411.7601.7932.1282.3072.1011.7751.7901.4891.8811.6601.7171.7671.9301.8291.8231.8851.8571.8261.6501.6871.5551.6121.5871.3271.3291.4331.3281.5001.4791.5521.3291.4861.4431.6171.4541.4551.5361.5581.6131.5571.8431.7001.9742.0191.9011.7161.5861.7591.7221.7442.0281.912
Path AO1.0001.0521.0161.0461.0581.0001.1441.2561.4231.5011.4311.3431.3091.3401.4891.5121.6741.7431.7552.0342.0091.9401.9221.8541.7391.7621.7711.9861.7721.6451.5311.5401.3811.5001.3591.5181.5581.4901.3391.3871.3251.2941.2571.3241.4961.5161.6481.6461.7211.6851.7941.9032.1151.8682.3472.0712.4722.6302.5642.6222.6293.0663.6823.8863.3543.0343.1273.3683.6203.0462.9412.8653.1153.0772.7732.7722.8212.7692.8302.789
Path AP1.0001.1271.1691.1991.1851.1351.5191.2841.2701.3121.2100.9941.2331.1581.0990.9671.1201.0450.8700.8881.0661.0781.0781.3271.3051.1921.0321.2721.2181.2071.0670.9271.1030.9281.0100.8890.7530.8230.7060.6810.6970.7390.6580.5940.5450.5710.5540.5740.6170.6020.5850.5940.4840.4730.4500.4520.4860.4780.4910.4510.3890.3410.3430.3610.3910.3750.4010.3550.3890.3770.4000.3810.3790.3770.3710.4220.4310.4220.5550.545
Path AQ1.0001.0411.1281.1641.1671.1241.2311.2121.1961.1751.1581.1831.1070.9440.9330.9030.6730.6400.7110.6890.7250.8910.8590.7600.8150.7901.0461.0480.9561.0841.0711.0001.0941.0950.9881.0651.0160.9511.0241.1081.1841.0381.1340.9871.0601.0481.0721.0971.0090.9281.0961.1411.1071.2871.4011.4801.7821.7511.7871.9711.9541.8631.7251.5051.4181.3821.2721.4301.5691.7391.7311.8321.7941.5421.7311.8661.9262.0081.7501.737
Path AR1.0000.9260.9621.0101.0010.9311.0021.0951.0861.2001.4001.3201.3201.3921.3291.2071.2501.1971.2191.2831.2831.0841.2201.0430.9770.8810.9661.1411.2771.0291.1251.1961.3271.2081.2661.2461.0191.2671.2561.5141.3801.2861.1661.2051.2961.1811.2421.2881.3031.3371.5651.6151.7311.6311.5021.4381.5171.5161.5021.3761.3341.5531.6421.5611.6241.9601.7301.7842.0962.2862.2122.1172.0301.7901.9342.0421.9741.9342.0762.192
Path AS1.0001.1161.0921.0631.0420.9851.0580.9831.1001.2301.3871.1191.2551.2921.4021.4311.3971.4021.1261.0150.9240.9321.0531.0641.0731.1391.2071.3041.1981.0561.1651.1391.2191.3951.4881.5151.5101.5101.6721.7311.4421.4831.5121.4411.4701.4581.5481.5841.7061.6481.5811.7621.7461.8412.1051.5591.4481.4111.4501.5471.6491.7881.9472.0482.4932.4771.9901.9101.7291.6831.8511.6461.6511.5131.5601.5101.3531.1411.2621.637
Path AT1.0000.8880.9240.9290.9900.8780.9531.0771.0680.9680.9390.7800.9690.9300.9220.9761.1061.2001.1291.1291.1080.9981.0601.1851.4191.5211.7441.6921.4991.3751.6641.6551.5541.4211.4391.4441.2171.3691.6761.5751.6821.7911.5851.4551.3941.3351.3751.4801.2871.3601.4701.4091.3371.3421.4131.1381.0111.0101.0911.0170.9620.9220.8460.9180.8650.8590.8650.8160.8840.8350.8410.7040.6890.6020.5670.5850.5560.5250.4850.482
Path AU1.0000.9770.9611.0451.1061.0421.0540.9600.9941.0861.1131.1331.1321.0230.9940.9761.0941.0390.8510.9170.9440.9021.1961.3101.2621.2621.2021.3681.4311.5121.4811.5191.3611.3651.2941.5351.4471.4651.2561.4271.3341.3811.5011.3821.2501.6081.5891.3391.2511.2571.2611.3681.4521.7021.3311.2011.4791.4521.2781.3391.3671.4901.5131.7771.8041.9472.0422.4252.6172.8073.0503.2453.6973.7764.0534.2444.6625.3025.6724.955
Path AV1.0001.0561.1071.0161.1631.1881.0961.1851.2641.1961.1571.0871.1561.0521.2111.2081.2511.4521.5071.4701.3591.4361.6281.6981.7812.0221.9582.2392.2122.8112.6312.5962.2922.2892.5502.7492.6142.9162.9302.8903.0253.0083.0172.7453.0223.1173.2463.3853.1022.9953.0793.2163.4093.3162.9523.0463.0013.5023.5573.7974.3804.0224.0964.2414.6394.4284.5294.9285.0215.2964.7524.5134.6014.8895.0025.6766.4426.0846.5367.265
Path AW1.0001.1651.1111.4341.6361.5401.5021.5961.5671.5811.6132.0762.2422.2052.0061.8692.1432.0032.1382.3242.1462.1371.8171.8231.7791.8011.7071.7321.6241.4231.4761.6211.6941.8081.7681.6381.6181.6771.7121.5631.4401.2121.1621.2411.1951.4551.4451.4371.4931.5861.5051.5591.4541.6001.4361.3091.3961.1801.1641.2091.1451.1801.1661.3271.5321.5361.4321.4811.4561.4851.5571.5541.6511.6482.2472.2902.5632.4162.4732.664
Path AX1.0001.0180.9160.8700.8971.0851.2791.1721.1721.1301.1761.5171.3581.6791.6701.7411.3721.3971.7471.4981.6951.7511.9122.2072.3752.3022.4502.5082.7072.4762.4982.4772.4832.2832.4802.7582.7583.3643.2123.1803.0903.0782.9643.1433.1402.8652.9653.4903.3423.7253.3464.3545.0385.0536.2016.3015.7335.7115.7746.0845.6255.8896.2245.0985.3455.8955.4925.2064.2404.5794.4953.9344.0344.1123.8423.7133.8643.8763.5494.268
Path AY1.0000.9730.9001.0101.0571.1751.1881.2741.3441.4131.5391.2221.1200.9911.0300.8660.9260.8920.8640.9050.8991.0010.9961.0961.3971.2741.2381.3771.4871.3021.4921.6251.5131.1951.2091.3321.2101.3031.3411.2501.1301.1891.1111.1691.3001.2601.4291.3591.2801.2441.3381.4781.4801.8681.7621.6351.9702.0742.1392.0031.9951.9281.9731.9101.7222.0392.6702.3382.3872.6632.2832.2302.1352.0102.1022.4222.0971.9992.1112.330
Path AZ1.0001.0520.7950.7840.8300.8210.6920.6950.7490.8020.8470.7680.7670.7110.7980.6380.6620.7930.8830.9710.9330.9521.0441.0831.1951.3011.3931.4741.5601.6251.5071.4371.3921.3731.4221.5501.5301.3261.3251.4191.3941.3621.3531.2791.2361.1871.2251.4191.6701.4331.4091.4181.3891.3161.3631.3951.3851.4191.4031.4571.3561.3091.2071.2501.2921.3041.2061.1661.1371.1571.0620.9300.8670.8960.8030.7110.8650.8160.7390.619
Path BA1.0001.0600.9670.9921.0411.0231.0871.1051.4111.2741.3471.3131.3221.3891.4741.5791.5321.4941.3091.1881.1961.1731.2311.1921.1411.4091.5871.5891.6301.5441.5481.6661.6111.6651.5751.5751.4911.4201.5901.6951.8881.8311.9041.8401.7391.8771.9381.9972.2932.3162.6272.7992.9792.4182.9642.8442.7822.9473.0113.0532.5492.1322.3572.3052.2682.3272.3202.3802.2532.5892.6293.0293.3453.5594.0464.1373.9594.0314.9554.609
Path BB1.0000.9770.8781.0901.0661.0121.2131.1041.2071.2311.2621.3021.2901.1611.1061.0381.0411.0781.1021.1071.3681.3471.3451.2841.4691.3911.4481.6982.0352.0281.9542.0191.9541.7091.9032.0792.1472.2382.2942.0691.6961.6301.4471.6131.6171.3801.4731.4881.4841.3941.2441.2081.4031.3631.3451.4171.5271.7832.3012.2712.4443.1233.1003.5353.4823.3183.1923.2303.3693.5913.7733.6833.7723.6123.4624.2454.2064.2324.2023.925
Path BC1.0000.9571.2001.2551.3731.3811.3531.2971.3791.1701.2511.1741.1441.1691.4961.4351.3351.3391.1981.4011.2951.2200.9911.0200.9570.9731.0061.0641.3611.4641.5591.3911.6271.7571.8781.9122.2642.3222.3592.4682.5312.0372.3272.2312.2242.1951.9481.9061.9782.1661.9691.9561.9951.9141.9412.1372.4622.5763.3133.3582.9042.9573.1242.8412.8492.8052.6612.5052.4182.2372.5502.5312.8802.6572.4702.4572.2762.0642.2272.166
Path BD1.0000.9980.9861.0641.1571.0011.0000.9950.9210.9930.9241.0391.1031.0441.1120.9830.9690.8460.7820.8730.9361.0461.0991.0360.9090.8960.9591.0211.1271.1631.2651.2761.2601.2981.3511.6701.8151.7411.9101.8181.6801.6361.8231.7411.7261.7461.9211.9371.8971.9042.2592.7142.8433.1223.6623.2133.1923.1503.3973.5233.2713.0563.3473.9524.0533.8233.7784.0374.0803.4672.8562.5832.7163.0312.8122.8142.2432.5092.2582.000
Path BE1.0001.0911.0241.2381.4221.2921.3811.3321.0861.1531.4001.5421.4021.4251.6831.6281.5101.5231.4101.4931.9281.9362.1232.0802.1862.0152.0291.8591.8211.7131.8181.7381.7601.8591.8081.9212.2652.2392.1521.7151.8791.8511.7981.6581.5761.6571.6671.6442.0872.2102.1952.3912.4022.3762.4742.5002.5102.2482.4362.2902.3472.4292.2632.5942.5132.4952.4542.3822.2442.1191.8991.8161.8642.0422.2112.0602.0032.1172.3892.478
Path BF1.0000.9910.8750.8210.8310.7250.7880.7310.7760.7380.6820.7190.6910.6550.6140.6650.6400.6720.7280.7520.7100.7860.8070.8360.9911.0851.0350.9941.0180.9490.8500.8320.8630.8200.8610.8190.7970.7820.7440.7160.6740.6240.5200.5450.5350.5920.6000.6120.7140.6160.6410.6690.6490.6530.6260.6850.6310.7290.7320.6880.7490.7520.8700.8940.8680.9050.8500.8120.8080.6970.6770.7590.8090.8910.8700.8260.7710.8310.8120.849
Lower percentile1.0000.8880.8540.7490.6890.6800.6650.6480.7080.7180.6740.7410.7500.6980.7560.6590.6570.6410.6820.6480.6700.6760.6460.6450.5770.5030.4940.5720.5580.5940.6080.5810.5310.5200.5420.5420.4850.5350.6060.5630.5370.5890.5320.5390.5320.5880.5900.6040.6170.5990.5700.5800.5680.5310.4750.4570.5160.4870.5540.5050.4410.4050.3740.3630.3870.3800.3830.3390.3690.3610.3850.3670.3670.3570.3360.3260.3340.3360.3510.409
Median1.0001.0290.9991.0431.0601.0171.0911.1001.0931.1271.1571.1031.1401.0621.1051.1181.1211.1851.1691.1271.0871.1121.1131.1751.2121.2511.2231.3111.2601.2551.3701.3731.3711.3421.3391.4581.2851.3471.3321.4231.3871.3281.3051.3021.2931.3081.4021.3891.3091.3491.4351.4141.4271.5051.4071.4271.4791.4841.4271.3721.3451.4001.3301.3911.4751.4631.3971.4561.5121.5841.6441.6001.6511.5281.5731.6811.7821.8071.7931.762
Upper percentile1.0001.1651.2101.3561.4701.4321.5061.6081.5981.5191.5561.7271.7901.8251.9001.8882.0441.9512.1532.3382.0562.1622.1642.2332.2292.0852.1342.3002.3232.5512.5282.5042.3352.2852.4962.7512.6473.0172.9932.9553.0403.0242.9762.8343.0492.9213.0283.4093.1563.1593.1393.4723.7753.7074.2333.9083.7643.9994.0564.3124.6604.4424.5754.4344.7984.7584.7464.9914.4164.7414.5534.0644.1614.2874.2674.5675.0635.4785.8675.475
Original history1.0000.8760.7460.7800.7590.8650.8751.1991.2151.2321.2531.2881.2221.1591.1941.2221.4481.8081.8251.7882.0292.0722.1032.0732.0692.1742.0182.0252.2512.0381.9121.9801.7321.7141.4571.4191.3451.5011.4251.4461.4121.5501.4881.5331.4081.1281.0110.9600.8920.9740.9581.1311.0340.9741.0121.1391.1121.1071.1281.1241.0241.0150.9640.8120.8630.8300.7750.8650.8540.9150.9090.8940.9000.9191.1931.1861.1961.2091.3341.292
Chart data · Pool-return differences across rebuilt histories · 1-day blocks
Summary of pool-return differences
StatisticLP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Minimum−22.31
Lower quartile−1.75
Median+0.33
Upper quartile+1.21
Maximum+10.86
Original history+1.65
Proposal minus current LP/xyk, percentage points per year
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
+1.20Yes
−0.18Yes
undefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
undefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
+1.15Yes
+0.94Yes
+0.54Yes
+2.00Yes
−1.75Yes
+1.21Yes
+6.91Yes
−6.62Yes
+10.86Yes
−2.13Yes
−1.22Yes
−0.27Yes
−5.98Yes
+0.94Yes
+1.75Yes
undefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
−9.95Yes
−22.31Yes
+0.33Yes
−2.50Yes
+0.98Yes
−1.66Yes
−20.00Yes
−0.52Yes
+4.72Yes
+0.09Yes
+1.36Yes
+1.66Yes

E. Tests of the YB proposal

The proposal’s results depend on financing, update timing and the market history.

E1 The proposal’s original test and its separate changes

The proposal’s original gain disappears in the tested variants using recorded operation times.

The original test uses the arbitrage-only setup. Arbitrage means trading price differences between markets for profit. The timing tests change when the pool can update.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: LP/xyk difference, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The full proposal and each partial package with deployed current settings.

Same for both: The tuning price history, or each shared rebuilt history.

Higher means: A larger advantage for the changed package.

The YB holder borrows to own pool shares. Its remaining wealth is the share value after subtracting debt. Holder growth here is measured in ETH, Ethereum’s asset.

The original test supplies hourly update opportunities. Its tuning history runs from 2025-03-24 to 30 September 2026.

Test: proposal minus current settingsLP/xyk, pp/yrHolder wealth in ETH: growth difference, pp/yr
Post’s test+1.65+4.48
Timing test without recorded user-update times+2.12+5.09
Timing test with recorded user-update times[−0.18, −0.04][+0.54, +0.67]

The claimed LP/xyk gain is +1.65 pp/yr. The claimed gain in holder growth is +4.48 pp/yr. Both compare the proposal with current settings.

Without recorded user-update times, the timing simulator gives +2.12 pp/yr of LP/xyk advantage. With those times, the smallest and largest results are [−0.18, −0.04] pp/yr.

Timing variants also change starting times and use observed crvUSD prices. crvUSD is the borrowing token. Variants labelled “with updates” add recorded user-operation opportunities. They do not copy users’ asset transfers.

Ranges show the lowest and highest outcomes across those variants. On the final rally, the proposal stops moving price_scale, its price centre. Growth in market value per share then falls below current settings.

The pool’s internal profit records measure something other than market value. The holder’s wealth after debt is also a separate measure. Those measures can show different advantages.

Which changes account for the original result?

A component test applies only part of the proposal. Changing financing parameters alone lowers LP/xyk on the tuning history. Changing only the external-price policy also lowers it. Combining the changes produces the original gain.

SettingDeployed currentProposed, rounded
Rules for external pricesPool rules based on its traded pricesExternal price reports guide fees and the pool’s central price
Donation rate, %/yr51.2
Recorded profit protected from spending, %4542.9
LevAMM fee, %1.31.5

Donations supply outside capital to the pool. Reserved profit is the share of recorded profit protected against spending on price-centre moves. LevAMM manages the debt-financed YB holding.

“Parameters only” is the financing-only package. It changes donations, reserved profit and the LevAMM fee. “External-price policy only” changes the rules using external reference prices. “Keep current” leaves the named setting unchanged and applies the other changes.

Changes appliedArbitrage only: LP/xyk difference, pp/yrArbitrage only: holder-growth difference in ETH, pp/yrTiming variants: LP/xyk difference, pp/yrTiming variants: holder-growth difference in ETH, pp/yr
Full proposal+1.65+4.48−0.18 to −0.04+0.54 to +0.67
Parameters only−3.03−2.34−1.95 to −1.48−0.39 to +0.02
Proposal, keeping current donations−2.54−7.39−2.40 to −2.18−7.31 to −6.45
Proposal, keeping current reserved profit−1.29+2.34−4.76 to −3.76−6.39 to −4.24
Proposal, keeping the current LevAMM fee+1.82+5.04−0.61 to −0.21−0.47 to +0.04
External-price policy only−2.13−6.39−1.85 to −1.72−5.83 to −5.15

The separate parts lose more LP/xyk than the post’s claimed gain. Parameters alone give −3.03 pp/yr. The external-price policy alone gives −2.13 pp/yr. The full proposal gains +1.65 pp/yr under arbitrage only.

The full proposal also gains when it keeps the current LevAMM fee under arbitrage only. The settings table defines the forum proposal’s complete package.

The same changes on rebuilt histories

Measure: Separate pool and holder growth differences, in percentage points per year.

Compared: Each package with deployed current settings.

Same for both: Each shared rebuilt path from the tuning history.

Higher means: A larger advantage for the changed package.

Each treatment has 100 rebuilt paths. The full proposal has a positive median LP/xyk difference. Parameters alone and the external-price policy alone have negative medians.

LP/xyk:
Markers show median differences from deployed current settings. The histories draw 180-day stretches from the tuning history. Intervals span the middle 95% of retained outcomes. The original-history result has a separate marker.

LP/xyk:
A larger value favours the named package. This chart measures LP/xyk. The tables show retained and total pairs. Individual histories appear in More detail.

YB position in ETH:
Markers show median differences from deployed current settings. The histories draw 180-day stretches from the tuning history. Intervals span the middle 95% of retained outcomes. The original-history result has a separate marker.

YB position in ETH:
A larger value favours the named package. This chart measures holder wealth in ETH. The tables show retained and total pairs. Individual histories appear in More detail.

The archive excludes a pair when either holder’s wealth after debt becomes zero or negative during its path. This exclusion also applies to pool-return summaries.

“Positive / retained” counts positive differences among retained pairs. “Retained / total” shows how many pairs remain after exclusions.

More detail: summaries for each measure
Changes appliedGrowth measureMedian difference, pp/yrMiddle 95% range, pp/yrPositive differences / retained pairsRetained pairs / all pairs
Full proposalLP/xyk+1.90−7.89 to +7.1284 of 100100 of 100
Full proposalHolder wealth in ETH+5.44−14.11 to +14.9188 of 100100 of 100
Parameters onlyLP/xyk−2.51−29.57 to +2.3029 of 9595 of 100
Parameters onlyHolder wealth in ETH−2.84−63.71 to +7.7543 of 9595 of 100
External-price policy onlyLP/xyk−1.70−2.96 to +4.7213 of 100100 of 100
External-price policy onlyHolder wealth in ETH−5.74−8.89 to +6.6311 of 100100 of 100

The histories draw 180-day stretches from the same tuning history.

More detail: individual pool-return outcomes

LP/xyk:
Each point shows one retained paired history for the named package. The horizontal position shows the growth difference from current settings. The measure is LP/xyk.

LP/xyk:
Diamonds mark the original-history outcomes. Rows keep the outcomes for each package together. The data table also identifies excluded pairs.

More detail: individual holder outcomes

YB position in ETH:
Each point shows one retained paired history for the named package. The horizontal position shows the growth difference from current settings. The measure is holder wealth in ETH.

YB position in ETH:
Diamonds mark the original-history outcomes. Rows keep the outcomes for each package together. The data table also identifies excluded pairs.

The timing simulator copies operation times without users’ asset amounts. It changes update timing instead of estimating customer demand. Modelling customer activity remains an open problem across the field.

These component tests start from a template and use the entire tuning history. The financing test starts from observed WETH reserves and available profit. It changes financing and price rules separately. The two tests answer different questions.

Chart data · Combined changes and their separate parts: LP/xyk
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Changes appliedMedian LP/xyk difference, pp/yrMiddle 95% outcome range, LP/xyk difference, pp/yrOriginal-history LP/xyk difference, pp/yrPairs kept / all pairs
Full proposal+1.90−7.89 to +7.12+1.65100 / 100
Parameters only−2.51−29.57 to +2.30−3.0395 / 100
External-price policy only−1.70−2.96 to +4.72−2.13100 / 100
Chart data · Combined changes and their separate parts: holder wealth in ETH
Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, percentage points per year
Changes appliedMedian Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, pp/yrMiddle 95% outcome range, Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, pp/yrOriginal-history Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, pp/yrPairs kept / all pairs
Full proposal+5.44−14.11 to +14.91+4.48100 / 100
Parameters only−2.84−63.71 to +7.75−2.3495 / 100
External-price policy only−5.74−8.89 to +6.63−6.39100 / 100
Chart data · Individual retained histories: LP/xyk
LP/xyk difference, percentage points per year
Changes appliedOutcome, LP/xyk difference, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
Full proposal — original history+1.65Yes
Full proposal+1.121Yes
Full proposal−33.370Yes
Full proposal−3.395Yes
Full proposal+1.855Yes
Full proposal+2.029Yes
Full proposal−2.011Yes
Full proposal+0.269Yes
Full proposal−10.082Yes
Full proposal+1.789Yes
Full proposal+2.926Yes
Full proposal+7.770Yes
Full proposal+1.651Yes
Full proposal+1.771Yes
Full proposal+2.790Yes
Full proposal+2.060Yes
Full proposal−11.157Yes
Full proposal+3.130Yes
Full proposal+1.782Yes
Full proposal+1.582Yes
Full proposal+1.971Yes
Full proposal+1.897Yes
Full proposal+4.618Yes
Full proposal+4.504Yes
Full proposal+3.077Yes
Full proposal+1.699Yes
Full proposal+16.272Yes
Full proposal+3.115Yes
Full proposal+2.542Yes
Full proposal+1.810Yes
Full proposal+0.225Yes
Full proposal−5.460Yes
Full proposal+2.214Yes
Full proposal+1.887Yes
Full proposal+2.725Yes
Full proposal+8.214Yes
Full proposal+2.574Yes
Full proposal+1.597Yes
Full proposal+1.697Yes
Full proposal+1.928Yes
Full proposal+2.149Yes
Full proposal+3.577Yes
Full proposal+1.612Yes
Full proposal+1.717Yes
Full proposal+3.095Yes
Full proposal+1.899Yes
Full proposal+1.820Yes
Full proposal+2.136Yes
Full proposal+3.099Yes
Full proposal+1.683Yes
Full proposal+2.327Yes
Full proposal+1.959Yes
Full proposal−2.197Yes
Full proposal+0.254Yes
Full proposal+1.627Yes
Full proposal+2.176Yes
Full proposal+1.403Yes
Full proposal+1.969Yes
Full proposal+5.821Yes
Full proposal+2.089Yes
Full proposal+3.026Yes
Full proposal+0.697Yes
Full proposal+2.461Yes
Full proposal+3.386Yes
Full proposal−2.003Yes
Full proposal+1.860Yes
Full proposal+1.786Yes
Full proposal+2.735Yes
Full proposal−2.538Yes
Full proposal−0.037Yes
Full proposal−3.192Yes
Full proposal+1.525Yes
Full proposal+1.777Yes
Full proposal+1.783Yes
Full proposal+1.992Yes
Full proposal+1.291Yes
Full proposal+2.705Yes
Full proposal+2.717Yes
Full proposal+2.864Yes
Full proposal+2.551Yes
Full proposal+3.285Yes
Full proposal+5.119Yes
Full proposal+1.634Yes
Full proposal+1.857Yes
Full proposal+6.068Yes
Full proposal+6.399Yes
Full proposal−2.097Yes
Full proposal−0.838Yes
Full proposal+3.095Yes
Full proposal−0.020Yes
Full proposal+2.946Yes
Full proposal+3.470Yes
Full proposal+1.951Yes
Full proposal+3.402Yes
Full proposal+1.486Yes
Full proposal+1.939Yes
Full proposal+2.941Yes
Full proposal−1.346Yes
Full proposal−1.822Yes
Full proposal+1.775Yes
Full proposal+0.350Yes
Parameters only — original history−3.03Yes
Parameters only−1.636Yes
Parameters only−20.535Yes
Parameters only−2.488Yes
Parameters only−39.275Yes
Parameters only+1.339Yes
Parameters only−1.780Yes
Parameters only−26.248Yes
Parameters only−0.728Yes
Parameters only+0.656Yes
Parameters only−14.184Yes
Parameters only−13.344Yes
Parameters only−1.113Yes
Parameters only−9.457Yes
Parameters only−0.467Yes
Parameters only−2.652Yes
Parameters only−17.222Yes
Parameters only+1.394Yes
Parameters only−0.110Yes
Parameters only+0.516Yes
Parameters only+2.085Yes
Parameters only+1.784Yes
Parameters only−20.463Yes
Parameters only−19.354Yes
Parameters only+1.389Yes
Parameters only+0.958Yes
Parameters only−8.098Yes
Parameters only−16.570Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only+0.884Yes
Parameters only+2.411Yes
Parameters only+1.910Yes
Parameters only+0.580Yes
Parameters only+1.996Yes
Parameters only+1.387Yes
Parameters only−28.330Yes
Parameters only−7.161Yes
Parameters only−16.933Yes
Parameters only−3.586Yes
Parameters only−3.187Yes
Parameters only−1.348Yes
Parameters only−13.496Yes
Parameters only−11.720Yes
Parameters only−0.272Yes
Parameters only−29.953Yes
Parameters only+1.795Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only+0.750Yes
Parameters only+2.595Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−13.389Yes
Parameters only−4.896Yes
Parameters only−0.884Yes
Parameters only−22.765Yes
Parameters only−0.102Yes
Parameters only−0.474Yes
Parameters only+0.607Yes
Parameters only−5.813Yes
Parameters only−0.817Yes
Parameters only+0.942Yes
Parameters only−12.183Yes
Parameters only−14.020Yes
Parameters only−5.786Yes
Parameters only−16.419Yes
Parameters only−6.840Yes
Parameters only−11.362Yes
Parameters only+0.616Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−28.870Yes
Parameters only−2.514Yes
Parameters only−2.102Yes
Parameters only−18.832Yes
Parameters only−13.875Yes
Parameters only+1.245Yes
Parameters only+0.353Yes
Parameters only−31.763Yes
Parameters only−12.645Yes
Parameters only−12.539Yes
Parameters only−2.743Yes
Parameters only−10.836Yes
Parameters only−13.019Yes
Parameters only−4.176Yes
Parameters only−1.497Yes
Parameters only−0.455Yes
Parameters only−7.703Yes
Parameters only−1.584Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−18.712Yes
Parameters only−25.786Yes
Parameters only−25.431Yes
Parameters only+0.013Yes
Parameters only+0.517Yes
Parameters only+2.001Yes
Parameters only−6.779Yes
Parameters only+1.467Yes
Parameters only+0.760Yes
Parameters only+2.940Yes
Parameters only−5.558Yes
Parameters only−1.104Yes
Parameters only+0.840Yes
Parameters only−17.882Yes
External-price policy only — original history−2.13Yes
External-price policy only−2.573Yes
External-price policy only−1.908Yes
External-price policy only−1.580Yes
External-price policy only+5.302Yes
External-price policy only−1.574Yes
External-price policy only−2.807Yes
External-price policy only−0.036Yes
External-price policy only−2.593Yes
External-price policy only−2.305Yes
External-price policy only−0.946Yes
External-price policy only+4.080Yes
External-price policy only−2.347Yes
External-price policy only−2.788Yes
External-price policy only−1.435Yes
External-price policy only−2.124Yes
External-price policy only−1.789Yes
External-price policy only−1.014Yes
External-price policy only−0.803Yes
External-price policy only−2.441Yes
External-price policy only−1.308Yes
External-price policy only−1.985Yes
External-price policy only+0.465Yes
External-price policy only+0.715Yes
External-price policy only−1.285Yes
External-price policy only−2.164Yes
External-price policy only+14.373Yes
External-price policy only−0.247Yes
External-price policy only−1.979Yes
External-price policy only−1.892Yes
External-price policy only−1.712Yes
External-price policy only−1.307Yes
External-price policy only−2.097Yes
External-price policy only−0.839Yes
External-price policy only−1.525Yes
External-price policy only+3.934Yes
External-price policy only−1.988Yes
External-price policy only−2.453Yes
External-price policy only−2.229Yes
External-price policy only−2.078Yes
External-price policy only−2.521Yes
External-price policy only−1.119Yes
External-price policy only−2.523Yes
External-price policy only−2.093Yes
External-price policy only+2.436Yes
External-price policy only−1.468Yes
External-price policy only−1.942Yes
External-price policy only−2.380Yes
External-price policy only−1.217Yes
External-price policy only−1.328Yes
External-price policy only−1.537Yes
External-price policy only−2.825Yes
External-price policy only−1.704Yes
External-price policy only−2.685Yes
External-price policy only−1.795Yes
External-price policy only−1.657Yes
External-price policy only−2.276Yes
External-price policy only−2.640Yes
External-price policy only+1.239Yes
External-price policy only−1.517Yes
External-price policy only−1.042Yes
External-price policy only−1.762Yes
External-price policy only−1.696Yes
External-price policy only−1.006Yes
External-price policy only−0.380Yes
External-price policy only−1.046Yes
External-price policy only−2.465Yes
External-price policy only−2.191Yes
External-price policy only+1.273Yes
External-price policy only−2.841Yes
External-price policy only−2.159Yes
External-price policy only−1.940Yes
External-price policy only−2.625Yes
External-price policy only−1.770Yes
External-price policy only−2.323Yes
External-price policy only−0.153Yes
External-price policy only−2.002Yes
External-price policy only−1.035Yes
External-price policy only−1.873Yes
External-price policy only−2.284Yes
External-price policy only−0.530Yes
External-price policy only+12.528Yes
External-price policy only−3.075Yes
External-price policy only−0.687Yes
External-price policy only+1.778Yes
External-price policy only+1.467Yes
External-price policy only−1.952Yes
External-price policy only−2.298Yes
External-price policy only−1.406Yes
External-price policy only−1.637Yes
External-price policy only−0.315Yes
External-price policy only−0.909Yes
External-price policy only−2.037Yes
External-price policy only−1.201Yes
External-price policy only+1.081Yes
External-price policy only−1.222Yes
External-price policy only−1.608Yes
External-price policy only−4.252Yes
External-price policy only−1.280Yes
External-price policy only−2.223Yes
External-price policy only−3.332Yes
Chart data · Individual retained histories: holder wealth in ETH
Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, percentage points per year
Changes appliedOutcome, Growth difference in holder wealth in ETH, percentage points per yearPair kept in this analysis?
Full proposal — original history+4.48Yes
Full proposal+3.443Yes
Full proposal−67.482Yes
Full proposal−1.486Yes
Full proposal+4.692Yes
Full proposal+5.396Yes
Full proposal+0.881Yes
Full proposal+2.530Yes
Full proposal−17.301Yes
Full proposal+5.642Yes
Full proposal+5.940Yes
Full proposal+16.808Yes
Full proposal+4.636Yes
Full proposal+5.342Yes
Full proposal+7.046Yes
Full proposal+6.006Yes
Full proposal−22.908Yes
Full proposal+7.173Yes
Full proposal+4.901Yes
Full proposal+4.954Yes
Full proposal+5.480Yes
Full proposal+5.469Yes
Full proposal+9.007Yes
Full proposal+11.124Yes
Full proposal+6.675Yes
Full proposal+5.418Yes
Full proposal+35.577Yes
Full proposal+6.112Yes
Full proposal+6.099Yes
Full proposal+4.868Yes
Full proposal+3.358Yes
Full proposal−10.584Yes
Full proposal+5.490Yes
Full proposal+5.337Yes
Full proposal+6.244Yes
Full proposal+14.217Yes
Full proposal+5.812Yes
Full proposal+4.845Yes
Full proposal+4.950Yes
Full proposal+5.783Yes
Full proposal+5.962Yes
Full proposal+9.383Yes
Full proposal+4.461Yes
Full proposal+4.918Yes
Full proposal+6.825Yes
Full proposal+5.446Yes
Full proposal+5.015Yes
Full proposal+6.014Yes
Full proposal+7.011Yes
Full proposal+4.717Yes
Full proposal+6.150Yes
Full proposal+4.780Yes
Full proposal−4.414Yes
Full proposal+2.676Yes
Full proposal+5.084Yes
Full proposal+4.793Yes
Full proposal+4.512Yes
Full proposal+5.551Yes
Full proposal+13.952Yes
Full proposal+5.829Yes
Full proposal+6.430Yes
Full proposal+1.329Yes
Full proposal+5.884Yes
Full proposal+7.453Yes
Full proposal−4.363Yes
Full proposal+4.921Yes
Full proposal+5.429Yes
Full proposal+6.251Yes
Full proposal−2.427Yes
Full proposal−1.219Yes
Full proposal−6.330Yes
Full proposal+5.489Yes
Full proposal+4.255Yes
Full proposal+5.172Yes
Full proposal+6.021Yes
Full proposal+3.589Yes
Full proposal+6.047Yes
Full proposal+6.624Yes
Full proposal+5.947Yes
Full proposal+5.844Yes
Full proposal+11.464Yes
Full proposal+13.134Yes
Full proposal+4.968Yes
Full proposal+5.605Yes
Full proposal+14.327Yes
Full proposal+15.431Yes
Full proposal−3.547Yes
Full proposal+0.018Yes
Full proposal+5.828Yes
Full proposal+2.288Yes
Full proposal+7.469Yes
Full proposal+8.544Yes
Full proposal+6.020Yes
Full proposal+8.368Yes
Full proposal+5.159Yes
Full proposal+5.360Yes
Full proposal+6.794Yes
Full proposal+1.420Yes
Full proposal−4.522Yes
Full proposal+5.171Yes
Full proposal+3.185Yes
Parameters only — original history−2.34Yes
Parameters only+1.885Yes
Parameters only−38.342Yes
Parameters only−0.895Yes
Parameters only−84.122Yes
Parameters only+5.603Yes
Parameters only+1.821Yes
Parameters only−54.814Yes
Parameters only+3.604Yes
Parameters only+6.046Yes
Parameters only−29.110Yes
Parameters only−27.293Yes
Parameters only+1.385Yes
Parameters only−14.211Yes
Parameters only+2.262Yes
Parameters only−4.121Yes
Parameters only−35.297Yes
Parameters only+5.294Yes
Parameters only+2.152Yes
Parameters only+4.350Yes
Parameters only+7.498Yes
Parameters only+6.639Yes
Parameters only−42.946Yes
Parameters only−41.397Yes
Parameters only+5.967Yes
Parameters only+6.017Yes
Parameters only−17.639Yes
Parameters only−35.535Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only+5.210Yes
Parameters only+8.366Yes
Parameters only+6.527Yes
Parameters only+3.953Yes
Parameters only+7.225Yes
Parameters only+5.860Yes
Parameters only−62.521Yes
Parameters only−13.834Yes
Parameters only−35.180Yes
Parameters only−1.559Yes
Parameters only−16.195Yes
Parameters only+1.730Yes
Parameters only−27.170Yes
Parameters only−21.956Yes
Parameters only+3.269Yes
Parameters only−64.348Yes
Parameters only+7.349Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only+5.849Yes
Parameters only+7.448Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−25.742Yes
Parameters only−19.759Yes
Parameters only−1.767Yes
Parameters only−44.095Yes
Parameters only+2.472Yes
Parameters only+2.713Yes
Parameters only+5.785Yes
Parameters only−26.439Yes
Parameters only+3.007Yes
Parameters only+5.067Yes
Parameters only−24.495Yes
Parameters only−30.953Yes
Parameters only−9.883Yes
Parameters only−32.472Yes
Parameters only−9.394Yes
Parameters only−22.690Yes
Parameters only+5.754Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−60.306Yes
Parameters only−0.277Yes
Parameters only−4.292Yes
Parameters only−37.726Yes
Parameters only−28.013Yes
Parameters only+5.796Yes
Parameters only+2.433Yes
Parameters only−70.039Yes
Parameters only−26.814Yes
Parameters only−24.916Yes
Parameters only−3.580Yes
Parameters only−20.288Yes
Parameters only−21.491Yes
Parameters only−7.472Yes
Parameters only+0.222Yes
Parameters only+0.119Yes
Parameters only−14.524Yes
Parameters only+0.012Yes
Parameters onlyundefinedExcluded: either holder’s wealth after debt reached zero or became negative
Parameters only−37.472Yes
Parameters only−53.854Yes
Parameters only−53.861Yes
Parameters only+2.795Yes
Parameters only+4.076Yes
Parameters only+7.880Yes
Parameters only−12.396Yes
Parameters only+5.357Yes
Parameters only+5.447Yes
Parameters only+8.121Yes
Parameters only−14.884Yes
Parameters only−2.840Yes
Parameters only+6.192Yes
Parameters only−33.707Yes
External-price policy only — original history−6.39Yes
External-price policy only−7.937Yes
External-price policy only−6.258Yes
External-price policy only−6.349Yes
External-price policy only+6.941Yes
External-price policy only−4.835Yes
External-price policy only−8.046Yes
External-price policy only−1.343Yes
External-price policy only−7.704Yes
External-price policy only−6.355Yes
External-price policy only−5.317Yes
External-price policy only+6.278Yes
External-price policy only−6.862Yes
External-price policy only−8.028Yes
External-price policy only−3.389Yes
External-price policy only−6.603Yes
External-price policy only−5.520Yes
External-price policy only−4.900Yes
External-price policy only−2.274Yes
External-price policy only−7.257Yes
External-price policy only−3.826Yes
External-price policy only−5.908Yes
External-price policy only−1.629Yes
External-price policy only−0.587Yes
External-price policy only−5.794Yes
External-price policy only−5.874Yes
External-price policy only+28.550Yes
External-price policy only−3.131Yes
External-price policy only−7.761Yes
External-price policy only−5.741Yes
External-price policy only−5.957Yes
External-price policy only−6.471Yes
External-price policy only−7.363Yes
External-price policy only−2.317Yes
External-price policy only−6.034Yes
External-price policy only+3.686Yes
External-price policy only−7.622Yes
External-price policy only−7.524Yes
External-price policy only−6.418Yes
External-price policy only−6.043Yes
External-price policy only−7.676Yes
External-price policy only−4.781Yes
External-price policy only−6.390Yes
External-price policy only−6.259Yes
External-price policy only+3.060Yes
External-price policy only−4.058Yes
External-price policy only−6.465Yes
External-price policy only−6.949Yes
External-price policy only−5.787Yes
External-price policy only−3.834Yes
External-price policy only−5.111Yes
External-price policy only−8.835Yes
External-price policy only−3.569Yes
External-price policy only−5.589Yes
External-price policy only−4.600Yes
External-price policy only−6.116Yes
External-price policy only−6.227Yes
External-price policy only−8.105Yes
External-price policy only+0.951Yes
External-price policy only−4.467Yes
External-price policy only−5.244Yes
External-price policy only−10.050Yes
External-price policy only−6.299Yes
External-price policy only−6.518Yes
External-price policy only−3.573Yes
External-price policy only−3.287Yes
External-price policy only−7.168Yes
External-price policy only−8.189Yes
External-price policy only+0.258Yes
External-price policy only−8.519Yes
External-price policy only−4.271Yes
External-price policy only−5.046Yes
External-price policy only−8.238Yes
External-price policy only−5.115Yes
External-price policy only−7.147Yes
External-price policy only−1.924Yes
External-price policy only−7.282Yes
External-price policy only−4.095Yes
External-price policy only−8.087Yes
External-price policy only−8.410Yes
External-price policy only+0.920Yes
External-price policy only+25.429Yes
External-price policy only−8.938Yes
External-price policy only−1.420Yes
External-price policy only+2.192Yes
External-price policy only+1.032Yes
External-price policy only−5.740Yes
External-price policy only−5.488Yes
External-price policy only−5.205Yes
External-price policy only−5.759Yes
External-price policy only−1.622Yes
External-price policy only−4.123Yes
External-price policy only−5.732Yes
External-price policy only−5.536Yes
External-price policy only−2.477Yes
External-price policy only−3.629Yes
External-price policy only−6.614Yes
External-price policy only−7.017Yes
External-price policy only−2.857Yes
External-price policy only−6.499Yes
External-price policy only−9.225Yes

E2 The early gain comes from changing financing

Changing financing explains the early gain in LP/xyk.

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Financing supplies pool capital through interest-funded donations.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

WETH is a token representing Ethereum’s ETH. These tests start from observed WETH pool states. The financing-only test keeps current price rules.

The early LP/xyk advantage comes after subtracting the donation charge. Donations supply capital through the YB holder’s interest payments. At longer horizons, the lower-financing pools stall and their advantage turns negative.

Measure: Financing-only LP/xyk difference, in percentage points per year.

Compared: Current price rules with changed financing against deployed current settings.

Same for both: Observed WETH starting states, prices and recorded operation times, with a simulated YB holder.

Higher means: A larger advantage after the donation charge.

Measure: Full-proposal growth difference in market value per share, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The full proposal with deployed current settings.

Same for both: The same observed WETH starting states, prices and activity setup.

Higher means: Faster growth in market value per share under the proposal.

The left panel changes financing alone and measures LP/xyk. The right panel applies the full proposal and measures growth in market value per share. Both subtract deployed current settings. Positive differences favour the changed setting.

The simulations share observed WETH starts, market prices and recorded operation times. They simulate the YB holder. Each 60-day and 90-day average reuses one independent stretch of market history.

Changing financing raises LP/xyk at 7 and 30 days. The advantage turns negative at 60 and 90 days. The full proposal lowers growth in market value per share at every reported horizon.

Under the full proposal, that growth is 0.92 pp/yr lower at 7 days. It is 8.40 pp/yr lower at 90 days. The gap grows with the horizon.

Measure: changed setting minus deployed current7 days30 days60 days90 days
Financing change alone: LP/xyk difference, pp/yr+2.27+0.94−4.14−7.10
Full proposal: LP/xyk difference, pp/yr+2.15+1.05——
Full proposal: growth difference in market value per share, pp/yr−0.92−2.61−3.45−8.40
Reduction in returned donation value / interest saved, %20688390
Financing change: difference in holder wealth after debt, ETH+8.2+15.8−97.2−137.9

The holder’s wealth includes returned value

The YB holder owns pool shares financed with debt. Its remaining wealth subtracts that debt from the market value of its shares.

Measure: Difference in holder wealth after debt, in ETH.

Compared: Financing-only settings with deployed current settings.

Same for both: The same starts and periods, after all transfers and market effects.

Higher means: More remaining holder wealth after the financing change.

The financing change adds +15.8 ETH after 30 days. Its difference after 90 days is −137.9 ETH. Negative figures mean less remaining wealth than under current settings.

Lower interest also changes value returned through the pool. That returned value includes collections, allocation transfers and benefits from removing donated shares. The holder comparison includes these transfers, trading, fees and market effects.

Only lower-financing variants stall at longer horizons. Their slower growth in market value then outweighs the saved donation charge.

More detail: returned value and overlapping histories

Each 60-day and 90-day average uses one effective market window. The starting dates overlap enough to reuse one independent stretch of market history.

The returned-value ratio divides the reduction in returned value by interest saved for each starting state. The reported result averages those ratios. Returned value includes collections, allocation transfers and benefits from removing donated shares.

Holder wealth already includes those transfers and all market, execution and fee effects. Do not add the returned-value ratio to the holder result.

A separate test fixes financing and disables delivery of external price reports. Its uncertainty intervals for changing the policy include both gains and losses.

Financing and price-centre moves contribute to returns. The total value of pool assets and the holder’s remaining wealth are reported separately.

Recorded transfers answer a different question

The recorded-activity runs copy observed user transfers and donated coins. Those donated coins stay fixed between settings. The ping runs copy operation times without user transfers. They simulate the YB holder’s financing.

With recorded transfers and unlabelled contracts, whose trading purpose is unknown, the proposal gains +1.55 pp/yr at 7 days. Its gain is +1.08 pp/yr at 30 days. Both are LP/xyk differences from current settings with donated coins held fixed.

Pings with a simulated YB holder give +2.15 pp/yr at 7 days. That exceeds the post’s claimed gain.

Windows without stalls form a selected subset

Among windows where neither pool stalls, the mean proposal-minus-current LP/xyk difference stays positive. Each horizon selects a different subset of runs.

Horizon, daysMean LP/xyk difference without stalls, pp/yr
71.57
301.00
901.18

On the 556-day tuning history, the proposal’s final stall begins on 19 August. It continues to the endpoint. The final LP/xyk difference is negative. Selecting windows without stalls retains positive mean differences.

Stalls use the shared price-gap rule.

Chart data · WETH: financing changes and the full proposal
Difference from deployed current settings, percentage points per year. Each 60-day and 90-day average reuses one independent stretch of market history.
Panel and lineDays since the starting stateDifference from deployed current settings, percentage points per year
Financing change: LP/xyk / Financing change alone: LP/xyk7+2.27
Financing change: LP/xyk / Financing change alone: LP/xyk30+0.94
Financing change: LP/xyk / Financing change alone: LP/xyk60−4.14
Financing change: LP/xyk / Financing change alone: LP/xyk90−7.10
Full proposal: market value per share / Full proposal: growth in market value per share7−0.92
Full proposal: market value per share / Full proposal: growth in market value per share30−2.61
Full proposal: market value per share / Full proposal: growth in market value per share60−3.45
Full proposal: market value per share / Full proposal: growth in market value per share90−8.40
Reference line—0

E3 Customers receive worse prices in the quote test

The proposal raises the cost of the tested customer trades.

Execution cost compares the trade price with the market price. A higher cost means a worse deal for the customer. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

Measure: Execution cost, in basis points of order value.

Compared: The proposal with deployed current settings.

Same for both: Recorded WETH customer order sizes and replay periods.

Higher means: A worse price for the customer.

WETH represents Ethereum’s ETH. Median cost is 145 basis points under the proposal. It is 6.5 basis points under current settings. The proposal’s cost is more than twenty times higher.

A buyer pays more than the market reference price. A seller receives less than that reference price. The external reference is the market price outside the pool.

Rejecting quotes changes the supplied activity

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: LP/xyk difference, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The proposal without tested customer trades against the stated current-settings control.

Same for both: The same monthly WETH windows.

Higher means: A larger proposal advantage in that imposed scenario.

The test removes all tested customer swaps, and swaps from unlabelled contracts, from the proposal alone. Its 30-day LP/xyk still exceeds the current control by about 1.00 pp/yr.

The monthly rejection test covers customer trades routed through services and contracts with unknown purposes. It imposes refusal of quotes above a cost limit. It does not estimate customers’ choices.

The smaller donation charge accounts for the LP/xyk gain

Growth in market value per share is lower than current settings in the monthly response tests. The proposal-minus-current difference ranges from −2.82 to −1.47 pp/yr.

The proposal’s donation charge is roughly 3.80 pp/yr smaller. That saving can make its LP/xyk advantage positive despite slower growth in market value. LP/xyk already includes the saving.

More detail: customer choices remain unknown

The test supplies trade-rejection rules and removes trades in the stated scenario. Customers may instead trade elsewhere, change amounts or change trading times. The test estimates neither actual demand nor LT capital. LT is YieldBasis’s liquidity token.

The financing reduction leaves an LP/xyk advantage over current settings. It does not establish that customers would keep trading these amounts. See the customer-response question.

E4 Selected settings on unused and older data

Unused-data tests show no reliable advantage beyond settings with the same financing.

Financing supplies pool capital through interest-funded donations.

Selection chooses settings using training data. A held-out test measures them on data excluded from that choice. Each window compares settings chosen on other days with alternatives.

The YB holder owns pool shares financed with debt. Remaining wealth subtracts debt from the market value of those shares. Growth is measured in ETH, Ethereum’s asset.

Rates use percentage points per year, or pp/yr. The rate conventions explain the logarithmic calculation.

Measure: Difference in growth of holder wealth in ETH, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The selected group with unrestricted random settings, then with matched alternatives.

Same for both: Identical test windows excluded from selection.

Higher means: A larger advantage for the selected group.

Matched alternatives share the donation rate and reserved profit fraction. Donations supply outside capital. The reserved fraction protects part of recorded profit from spending on price-centre moves.

The best 500 settings are selected using the other training days. Their average holder growth is then measured on the excluded test window.

ComparisonMean growth difference, pp/yrOne standard error, pp/yr95% confidence interval, pp/yr
Selected minus unrestricted random settings+7.025.21−1.86 to 17.84
Selected minus financing-matched settings+1.4510.90−18.78 to +23.20

The observed mean advantage over unrestricted random settings is large. Its confidence interval includes both gains and losses. A confidence interval describes uncertainty in the mean.

Matching financing reduces the mean advantage. The remaining difference is small compared with its standard error. A standard error measures uncertainty in an estimated mean. The matched difference cannot be distinguished from zero.

Matching financing reduces the observed mean advantage. The remaining difference is small compared with its standard error. Each bar compares growth in holder wealth after debt, measured in ETH, on windows excluded from selection.

Error bars show one standard error. Matching keeps the donation rate and reserved profit fraction equal. The nearby table gives confidence intervals.

The tested setting, numbered 534515, reaches the top tenth in 3 of 64 unused windows. Rankings transfer weakly from training days to excluded test windows. Their rank correlation is 0.19 within exact donation-rate and reserved-profit pairs.

The selected group performs worse on older data

Measure: Difference in growth of holder wealth in ETH, in percentage points per year.

Compared: Selected settings with alternatives sharing donation rates and reserved profit fractions.

Same for both: The older market windows.

Higher means: A larger advantage for selection.

Comparison on older dataHolder-growth difference in ETH, pp/yr
Selected minus matched settings: operation times only−1.59
Selected minus matched settings: arbitrage only−1.84

Selected settings have lower mean holder growth than matched alternatives. Stalls occur in 148 of 240 selected-setting runs. Matched alternatives stall in 109 runs.

More detail: uncertainty and supplied inputs

Error bars measure uncertainty in the mean difference. They allow for shared market moves across overlapping windows. The older-history comparison generates price reports and reuses observed operation times.

A separate test compares the forum proposal with current settings

An LP owns a share of the pool. LP/xyk measures share growth above a reference, after donation charges. The reference pool charges no trading fees. Both pools face the same market prices.

Measure: Separate pool and holder growth differences, in percentage points per year.

Compared: The forum proposal with deployed WETH current settings.

Same for both: The same older price history and generated reference-price reports.

Higher means: A larger advantage for the proposal.

The full older history lasts 478 days. The proposal gains +0.53 pp/yr of LP/xyk over current settings. Holder growth gains +3.17 pp/yr before the LT administration fee.

The first half-year gives an LP/xyk loss of −0.88 pp/yr. A sharp market move and a stall occur in that period.

These 2023–2025 data predate tuning. Modelled external price reports reproduce observed errors. The modelled reports are smoother at short horizons.

The LP/xyk gain over the full older history is small compared with the post’s claim. Shorter windows include losses. Holder growth is measured in ETH before the LT administration fee. The test generates external reference-price reports.

Each window includes its starting date and excludes its ending date. The full window runs from 2023-12-01 to 2025-03-23.

  • First shorter window: 2023-12-01 to 2024-05-29.
  • Second shorter window: 2024-05-29 to 2024-11-25.

Older-history results and ranges across report models.

Across report models, the smallest and largest full-period LP/xyk gains are [0.48, 0.53] pp/yr. For holder growth, the smallest and largest gains are [3.02, 3.17] pp/yr. The pool gain remains small compared with the post’s claim. The holder gains more than the pool measure.

The forum-proposal test compares different packages from the selected-versus-matched test above.

More detail: possible bias from modelled reports

On a window with recorded reports, modelled reports raise the proposal-minus-current LP/xyk difference by +0.09 pp/yr. Its standard error is 0.02 pp/yr.

The corresponding increase in holder-growth difference is +0.25 pp/yr. Its standard error is 0.09 pp/yr. The older-history results retain this possible bias. The bias on that older history is unknown.

Chart data · Matching financing reduces the observed selection advantage
Holder-growth difference in ETH, percentage points per year
Simulation or comparisonMean on unused windows · Holder-growth difference in ETH, percentage points per yearOne standard error, pp/yr
Selected minus unrestricted random settings+7.025.21
Selected minus financing-matched settings+1.4510.90
Chart data · The older-history gain changes across time windows
Proposal minus current growth, percentage points per year
Simulation or comparisonLP/xyk · Proposal minus current growth, percentage points per yearHolder wealth in ETH · Proposal minus current growth, percentage points per year
2023-12-01 to 2025-03-23+0.53+3.17
2023-12-01 to 2024-05-29−0.88−1.27
2024-05-29 to 2024-11-25+0.37+1.91

F. The re-peg gate

This chapter develops one point on each page.

F1 The profit floor guards the books, then locks the pool

The profit floor protects the pool’s recorded value per share.

Measure: growth difference above a fee-free reference pool (M), before donation charges, in percentage points per year

Compared: the pool that keeps its profit floor with the same pool after removing that floor

Same for both: each test period with deliberately incorrect target prices

Higher means: keeping the floor gave faster growth in the market value of each share

The pool records an internal value per share called virtual price. A re-peg moves the pool’s centre price. Once the buffer above the floor is spent, the floor can block later re-pegs.

Before attempting a move, the pool checks the accounting value it holds. After calculating the move, it checks the value that would remain. Allowing one step below the protected floor leaves the pre-move check ready to refuse later steps. The target-error tests measure what this accounting protection does to wealth at market prices.

The gate first checks whether the pool has enough accounting value to attempt a re-peg. It then checks whether the proposed move and its allowed share burn would leave enough value. Both checks protect the cumulative profit floor. Disabling the final check leaves the first check active.

Keeping the floor raises growth in the market value of each WETH pool share above floor removal in 7 of 12 tested cases. The gain is 0.10–0.38 pp/yr. In separate BTC tests with targets deliberately offset by 2% up or down, keeping the floor beats removing it in 2 of 10 cases. A further test repeatedly moves the target in one direction until the 20% target limit stops that drift.

Why stalls persist

Measure: re-peg attempts rejected by the pre-move check, out of all attempts in the trace

Compared: rejections after one permitted step below the floor with all attempts in the same trace

Same for both: the traced September WBTC window

Higher means: the accounting floor refuses re-pegs more often

Skipping the second check allows one move below the minimum. The first check then blocks later moves until profits recover. In the traced WBTC case, almost every attempt stays blocked. The first check rejects 1,510 of 1,523 attempts.

Under the tested spending rule, multiplying financing by 4 still leaves WBTC and tBTC stalled through the September month. These runs test recovery from those starting states. The donation scan separately tests how often episodes occur over rebuilt histories.

More detail

For cbBTC starting in August, the weaker gate permits re-centring. It raises M growth by 6.3 to 7.1 pp/yr compared with the current gate. YB-position growth rises by 14.4 to 16.6 pp/yr.

The net arbitrage contribution differs by at most 0.075 pp/yr. Changed holdings account for most of the return difference.

The accounting barrier

An allowed re-peg can spend below the old protected threshold. The experimental rule then lowers that threshold to the new virtual price. Later re-pegs can pass.

The pre-move check and the absolute virtual-price floor remain in force. No monthly spending cap was tested.

The remaining question concerns spending rules. How do they change recovery, market-valued wealth and losses from wrong target prices across different histories?

More detail

Headroom is virtual price divided by lp_xcp_profit, minus 1. It measures the buffer above the protected floor. The distance between the pool’s centre price, price_scale, and the market price shows where trading capacity sits. A large accounting buffer can exist alongside a large market-price gap.

This breakdown uses re-pegs and the pool’s coin holdings. Arbitrage fees and execution costs mostly cancel.

Return rates follow the shared conventions.

Stall and “both attached” labels use the shared price-gap rule.

F2 Removing the floor in September

Removing the floor changes returns differently across pools on the same September price history.

Measure: growth difference above a fee-free reference pool (M), before donation charges, in percentage points per year

Compared: each pool with its cumulative floor removed with the same pool keeping the current gate

Same for both: the shared September Bitcoin path and the pool’s own starting state

Higher means: a larger gain from removing the floor

  • The profit floor protects the pool’s recorded value per share. A stall is a large, lasting gap between the pool’s centre price and the market. Removing the floor cuts September stall duration by at least half in 5 of 5 pool/setup combinations. WBTC falls from 30 days to 2.6 days.
  • WBTC ends much closer to market. The end gap is 1.4%, against 16.5% with the current gate.
  • The same Bitcoin price history gives opposite results across pools. Compared with the current gate, removing the floor changes growth in the market value of each share by +10.70 pp/yr on WBTC. On cbBTC the change is −4.37 pp/yr on the same Bitcoin history.

On the same September Bitcoin history, floor removal helps WBTC and hurts cbBTC compared with keeping the floor. The pools have different starting states. Runs cover 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026, using pings and simulated financing. All 16 input-error repeats keep those signs.

Rebuilding the month’s market segments gives a second view. WBTC’s M-growth difference then has a 95% interval of −16.34 to +41.08 pp/yr. Error bars resample segments of the same month. They show 95% uncertainty intervals for the mean M-growth difference.

The market-history interval is wide because this month contains only about 4.3 effective windows.

PoolMarket-valued LP growth (M), pp/yr95% M confidence interval, pp/yrYB position at market prices, pp/yrOutcome of the pool keeping the current gate
WBTC+10.70−16.34 to +41.08+23.15Stays stalled
tBTC+10.72−14.67 to +39.43+23.24Stays stalled
cbBTC−4.37−12.57 to +3.38−12.02Recovers when price reverses

During this month, re-pegs reduce virtual price by about 0.7–0.9%. The remaining absolute floor requires virtual price to stay above 1, its starting accounting unit. This limit governs the internal index. Externally priced asset value can move differently.

Why the reversal differs

The cbBTC pool with the current gate re-centres on its own as prices fall back. Before that, the pool sells Bitcoin during the early price rise while its centre price remains out of date. It buys again near the middle-month low. It then sells into the next rally.

Immediately moving the centre price with the market gives up this favourable sequence. The assets it holds therefore earn less when prices reverse.

On the shared Bitcoin path, WBTC and tBTC keep stale reference prices. cbBTC’s different starting state lets it recover when prices reverse. Keeping stale holdings helps cbBTC on this sequence. The tests found no stable advance signal for choosing that favourable sequence.

More detail

The market-value intervals are wide because the month contains few independent market moves. A tested alternative resets the protected floor after a step would overdraw it. That alternative tracks the fully removed-floor result closely.

Return rates follow the shared conventions.

Stall and “both attached” labels use the shared price-gap rule.

Chart data · Removing the floor: differences from the current gate
pp/yr, floor removed minus current gate
ComparisonMarket-valued LP growth (M) · pp/yr, floor removed minus current gateYB position, external market prices · pp/yr, floor removed minus current gateMarket-valued LP growth (M) · Interval low · pp/yr, floor removed minus current gateMarket-valued LP growth (M) · Interval high · pp/yr, floor removed minus current gate
WBTC+10.70+23.15−16.34+41.08
tBTC+10.72+23.24−14.67+39.43
cbBTC−4.37−12.02−12.57+3.38

G. When price_scale detaches

This chapter develops one point on each page.

G1 Detachment is depth missing at the market

Detachment is depth missing at the market price.

Measure: trading capacity near the market price, as a percentage of the centred reference pool’s capacity

Compared: the pool with an equally funded pool of the same curve shape centred on that price

Same for both: the pool’s funding, its curve shape and the market price at that moment

Higher means: more capacity for small trades at the market price

Trading depth is the amount available to trade near a price. More depth means a small trade moves the price less.

Lower retained depth means the same small order moves the price more. The live-pool chart shows this loss of trading capacity. More detail explains the episode rule. It also explains how squared price moves measure market movement during episodes.

Serious detachment means less than 75.00% of the reference trading depth remains at the market price. At that boundary, a very small trade moves the price about 1.33 times as much as in the reference pool. A larger order also faces fees and further price movement along the curve.

The horizontal axis shows the log distance between price_scale and the market price. The vertical axis shows retained depth. Markers locate the three tiers.
Detachment tierDepth retained belowAbsolute log gap, aboutPrice impact of a tiny trade at the boundary, before feesHours of permitted steps to reach the 1.36% log-price band
Warning92.00%4.93%1.09 times8 hours
Serious75.00%10.05%1.33 times18 hours
Severe50.00%19.11%2.00 times36 hours

The same price gap removes more depth from a pool with more concentrated liquidity. That is why the tiers use depth retained, rather than the price gap alone. This curve uses the observed pools’ amplification setting of 5.

More detail

To calculate the log gap, divide the pool’s centre price, price_scale, by the external market price. Take the natural logarithm. Ignore the sign.

The tiers are service standards. The contract does not enforce them.

The walk times assume one re-peg per hour. The maximum step is 0.50%. Every policy uses the same 1.36% log-price fee band. The walk times ignore delays from the gate, reports and funding.

Walking back from the severe boundary takes 36 hours even under these assumptions. That is longer than the 24-hour episode threshold.

The live pools

Over 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026 UTC, mean depth missing is smallest for WETH and largest for tBTC. WETH retains nearly all reference depth on average. The Bitcoin pools lose much more. The table gives each pool’s mean depth missing.

Each point is the daily average retained depth. Shading uses the separate price-gap stall rule. That rule flags a gap above 5% lasting at least 24 hours. It is not the serious-depth threshold.

Daily means smooth intraday extremes. The table gives the minimum block-level depth. Stalls still open stop at the study endpoint.

WBTC and tBTC at times kept less than half the reference depth. cbBTC did not go below half.

PoolMean depth missing, %Minimum depth retained, %Mean missing trading capacity, USD per basis pointMean pool capital at market prices, million USD
WETH0.4781.1821.0932.97
WBTC17.3043.221,558.8951.42
cbBTC8.4253.001,076.1480.82
tBTC19.4744.001,061.0435.58

How we count

More detail: episodes and market movement

An episode first requires 24 uninterrupted hours below the selected depth threshold. Qualifying periods then join when the recovery between them lasts less than 24 hours. Brief dips add to time below the threshold. They cannot combine into a qualifying period.

The volatility clock adds squared log-price changes. It advances more during large moves. It therefore distinguishes a turbulent detached day from a calm one. Calendar time sets episode length and the timing of donations, reports and financing.

A setting passes “almost never” only if both tests pass. The first test uses a one-sided 95% Wilson upper bound, an upper limit allowing for sampling uncertainty. The upper limit on the chance of a first serious episode by day 365 must be at most 5.00%.

Test two: the mean share of the full 556-day path below serious depth must be at most 0.50%. First-episode counts use paths starting outside the tier. The time share includes brief dips.

The chart’s bootstrap error bars use a different calculation. They do not determine qualification.

These probabilities describe rebuilt versions of one WETH price history. All paths start from the simulator’s template state.

An episode still open at the endpoint has a known duration so far. Its eventual duration is unknown. Paths that start below the selected depth threshold are reported separately.

The shared settings and conventions distinguish these depth, event and quote measures from return rates.

Settings and conventions distinguishes depth episodes from the price-gap stall rule.

Chart data · Depth falls as price_scale moves away
depth retained, % of centred depth
Panel / curveCoordinate · Absolute log price gap, %depth retained, % of centred depth
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.00100.00
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.10100.00
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.2099.99
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.3099.97
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.4099.94
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.5099.91
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.6099.87
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.7099.82
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.8099.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained0.9099.70
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.0099.63
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.1099.55
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.2099.47
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.3099.38
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.4099.28
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.5099.18
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.6099.06
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.7098.95
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.8098.82
Today’s amplification / Depth retained1.9098.69
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.0098.55
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.1098.40
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.2098.25
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.3098.09
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.4097.93
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.5197.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.6197.58
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.7197.40
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.8197.21
Today’s amplification / Depth retained2.9197.01
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.0196.81
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.1196.61
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.2196.39
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.3196.18
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.4195.95
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.5195.73
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.7195.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained3.8195.01
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.0194.51
Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.1194.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.2194.00
Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.3193.73
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.6192.91
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.8192.35
Today’s amplification / Depth retained4.9192.06
Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.0191.77
Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.1191.47
Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.2191.17
Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.3190.87
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.5190.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.6189.95
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained5.9189.01
Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.0188.69
Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.1188.37
Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.2188.04
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.5187.06
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.8186.06
Today’s amplification / Depth retained6.9185.73
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.0185.39
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.1185.05
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.2184.71
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.3184.37
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.4184.03
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.5283.69
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.6283.35
Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.7283.01
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained7.9282.32
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.0281.97
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.1281.63
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.2281.28
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.3280.94
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.4280.59
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.5280.24
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.6279.90
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.8279.21
Today’s amplification / Depth retained8.9278.86
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.0278.52
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.1278.17
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.2277.83
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.3277.48
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.4277.14
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.5276.80
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.6276.46
Today’s amplification / Depth retained9.7276.11
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.0275.09
Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.1274.75
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.3274.08
Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.4273.74
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.7272.74
Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.8272.41
Today’s amplification / Depth retained10.9272.08
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.0271.75
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.1271.42
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.2271.09
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.3270.77
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.4270.44
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.5270.12
Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.6269.79
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained11.9268.83
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.0268.52
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.1268.20
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.2267.89
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.3267.57
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.4267.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained12.5366.95
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained13.0365.43
Today’s amplification / Depth retained13.1365.12
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained14.0362.49
Today’s amplification / Depth retained14.1362.20
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained14.4361.35
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained14.6360.80
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained14.9359.98
Today’s amplification / Depth retained15.0359.71
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained15.3358.90
Today’s amplification / Depth retained15.4358.64
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained16.0357.08
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained16.3356.33
Today’s amplification / Depth retained16.4356.08
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Today’s amplification / Depth retained17.5453.45
Today’s amplification / Depth retained17.6453.22
Today’s amplification / Depth retained17.7452.99
Today’s amplification / Depth retained17.8452.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained17.9452.53
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.0452.31
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.1452.09
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.2451.87
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.3451.65
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.4451.43
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.5451.21
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.6450.99
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.7450.78
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.8450.57
Today’s amplification / Depth retained18.9450.35
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.0450.14
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.1449.94
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.2449.73
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.3449.52
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.4449.32
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.5449.11
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.6448.91
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.7448.71
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.8448.51
Today’s amplification / Depth retained19.9448.31
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.0448.12
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.1447.92
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.2447.73
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.3447.53
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.4447.34
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.5447.15
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.6446.96
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.7446.77
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.8446.59
Today’s amplification / Depth retained20.9446.40
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.0446.22
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.1446.03
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.2445.85
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.3445.67
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.4445.49
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.5445.31
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.6445.14
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.7444.96
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.8444.79
Today’s amplification / Depth retained21.9444.61
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.0444.44
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.1444.27
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.2444.10
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.3443.93
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.4443.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.5543.60
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.6543.43
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.7543.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.8543.10
Today’s amplification / Depth retained22.9542.94
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.0542.78
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.1542.62
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.2542.46
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.3542.30
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.4542.14
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.5541.99
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.6541.83
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.7541.68
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.8541.52
Today’s amplification / Depth retained23.9541.37
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.0541.22
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.1541.07
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.2540.92
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.3540.77
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.4540.62
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.5540.48
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.6540.33
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.7540.19
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.8540.04
Today’s amplification / Depth retained24.9539.90
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.0539.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.1539.62
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.2539.48
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.3539.34
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.4539.20
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.5539.06
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.6538.93
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.7538.79
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.8538.66
Today’s amplification / Depth retained25.9538.52
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.0538.39
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.1538.26
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.2538.12
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.3537.99
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.4537.86
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.5537.73
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.6537.61
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.7537.48
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.8537.35
Today’s amplification / Depth retained26.9537.23
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.0537.10
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.1536.98
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.2536.85
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.3536.73
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.4536.61
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.5636.49
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.6636.37
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.7636.25
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.8636.13
Today’s amplification / Depth retained27.9636.01
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.0635.89
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.1635.78
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.2635.66
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.3635.55
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.4635.43
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.5635.32
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.6635.20
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.7635.09
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.8634.98
Today’s amplification / Depth retained28.9634.87
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.0634.76
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.1634.65
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.2634.54
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.3634.43
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.4634.32
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.5634.22
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.6634.11
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.7634.00
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.8633.90
Today’s amplification / Depth retained29.9633.79
Warning tier boundary4.9392.00
Serious tier boundary10.0575.00
Severe tier boundary19.1150.00
Chart data · Daily depth retained in the live pools
% of centred depth
Panel / curveCoordinate · UTC date% of centred depthStall-window end, UTC
WETH / WETH2026-05-26 00:00:00+00:0099.70—
WETH / WETH2026-05-27 00:00:00+00:0099.81—
WETH / WETH2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:0099.05—
WETH / WETH2026-05-29 00:00:00+00:0099.77—
WETH / WETH2026-05-30 00:00:00+00:0099.98—
WETH / WETH2026-05-31 00:00:00+00:0099.84—
WETH / WETH2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:0099.50—
WETH / WETH2026-06-02 00:00:00+00:0099.75—
WETH / WETH2026-06-03 00:00:00+00:0099.35—
WETH / WETH2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:0099.43—
WETH / WETH2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:0098.22—
WETH / WETH2026-06-06 00:00:00+00:0099.57—
WETH / WETH2026-06-07 00:00:00+00:0099.14—
WETH / WETH2026-06-08 00:00:00+00:0099.32—
WETH / WETH2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:0099.64—
WETH / WETH2026-06-10 00:00:00+00:0099.70—
WETH / WETH2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:0099.46—
WETH / WETH2026-06-12 00:00:00+00:0099.80—
WETH / WETH2026-06-13 00:00:00+00:0099.93—
WETH / WETH2026-06-14 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
WETH / WETH2026-06-15 00:00:00+00:0098.87—
WETH / WETH2026-06-16 00:00:00+00:0099.44—
WETH / WETH2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:0099.62—
WETH / WETH2026-06-18 00:00:00+00:0099.31—
WETH / WETH2026-06-19 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WETH / WETH2026-06-20 00:00:00+00:0099.14—
WETH / WETH2026-06-21 00:00:00+00:0099.51—
WETH / WETH2026-06-22 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WETH / WETH2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:0098.63—
WETH / WETH2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:0099.10—
WETH / WETH2026-06-25 00:00:00+00:0098.08—
WETH / WETH2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:0098.06—
WETH / WETH2026-06-27 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WETH / WETH2026-06-28 00:00:00+00:0099.49—
WETH / WETH2026-06-29 00:00:00+00:0099.45—
WETH / WETH2026-06-30 00:00:00+00:0099.66—
WETH / WETH2026-07-01 00:00:00+00:0099.21—
WETH / WETH2026-07-02 00:00:00+00:0099.62—
WETH / WETH2026-07-03 00:00:00+00:0099.52—
WETH / WETH2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:0099.65—
WETH / WETH2026-07-05 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WETH / WETH2026-07-06 00:00:00+00:0099.63—
WETH / WETH2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:0099.41—
WETH / WETH2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
WETH / WETH2026-07-09 00:00:00+00:0099.84—
WETH / WETH2026-07-10 00:00:00+00:0099.54—
WETH / WETH2026-07-11 00:00:00+00:0099.81—
WETH / WETH2026-07-12 00:00:00+00:0099.87—
WETH / WETH2026-07-13 00:00:00+00:0099.17—
WETH / WETH2026-07-14 00:00:00+00:0099.38—
WETH / WETH2026-07-15 00:00:00+00:0099.40—
WETH / WETH2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:0099.18—
WETH / WETH2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:0099.41—
WETH / WETH2026-07-18 00:00:00+00:0099.28—
WETH / WETH2026-07-19 00:00:00+00:0098.91—
WETH / WETH2026-07-20 00:00:00+00:0099.52—
WETH / WETH2026-07-21 00:00:00+00:0099.09—
WETH / WETH2026-07-22 00:00:00+00:0099.59—
WETH / WETH2026-07-23 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
WETH / WETH2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:0099.54—
WETH / WETH2026-07-25 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WETH / WETH2026-07-26 00:00:00+00:0099.57—
WETH / WETH2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:0099.60—
WETH / WETH2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:0099.20—
WETH / WETH2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WETH / WETH2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WETH / WETH2026-07-31 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
WETH / WETH2026-08-01 00:00:00+00:0099.52—
WETH / WETH2026-08-02 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
WETH / WETH2026-08-03 00:00:00+00:0099.79—
WETH / WETH2026-08-04 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
WETH / WETH2026-08-05 00:00:00+00:0099.35—
WETH / WETH2026-08-06 00:00:00+00:0099.33—
WETH / WETH2026-08-07 00:00:00+00:0099.83—
WETH / WETH2026-08-08 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
WETH / WETH2026-08-09 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
WETH / WETH2026-08-10 00:00:00+00:0099.49—
WETH / WETH2026-08-11 00:00:00+00:0099.39—
WETH / WETH2026-08-12 00:00:00+00:0099.81—
WETH / WETH2026-08-13 00:00:00+00:0099.84—
WETH / WETH2026-08-14 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
WETH / WETH2026-08-15 00:00:00+00:0099.83—
WETH / WETH2026-08-16 00:00:00+00:0099.88—
WETH / WETH2026-08-17 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WETH / WETH2026-08-18 00:00:00+00:0099.70—
WETH / WETH2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:0098.73—
WETH / WETH2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
WETH / WETH2026-08-21 00:00:00+00:0099.41—
WETH / WETH2026-08-22 00:00:00+00:0099.06—
WETH / WETH2026-08-23 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
WETH / WETH2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:0099.63—
WETH / WETH2026-08-25 00:00:00+00:0099.75—
WETH / WETH2026-08-26 00:00:00+00:0099.66—
WETH / WETH2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WETH / WETH2026-08-28 00:00:00+00:0099.71—
WETH / WETH2026-08-29 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WETH / WETH2026-08-30 00:00:00+00:0099.42—
WETH / WETH2026-08-31 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
WETH / WETH2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:0099.66—
WETH / WETH2026-09-02 00:00:00+00:0099.80—
WETH / WETH2026-09-03 00:00:00+00:0099.41—
WETH / WETH2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:0099.60—
WETH / WETH2026-09-05 00:00:00+00:0099.44—
WETH / WETH2026-09-06 00:00:00+00:0099.51—
WETH / WETH2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WETH / WETH2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WETH / WETH2026-09-09 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WETH / WETH2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:0099.83—
WETH / WETH2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:0099.30—
WETH / WETH2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
WETH / WETH2026-09-13 00:00:00+00:0099.75—
WETH / WETH2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:0099.44—
WETH / WETH2026-09-15 00:00:00+00:0099.63—
WETH / WETH2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
WETH / WETH2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:0099.77—
WETH / WETH2026-09-18 00:00:00+00:0099.50—
WETH / WETH2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:0099.80—
WETH / WETH2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:0099.53—
WETH / WETH2026-09-21 00:00:00+00:0099.67—
WETH / WETH2026-09-22 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
WETH / WETH2026-09-23 00:00:00+00:0099.60—
WETH / WETH2026-09-24 00:00:00+00:0099.66—
WETH / WETH2026-09-25 00:00:00+00:0099.71—
WETH / WETH2026-09-26 00:00:00+00:0099.93—
WETH / WETH2026-09-27 00:00:00+00:0099.93—
WETH / WETH2026-09-28 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
WETH / WETH2026-09-29 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
WETH / WETH2026-09-30 00:00:00+00:0099.63—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-26 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-27 00:00:00+00:0099.59—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:0099.43—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-29 00:00:00+00:0099.84—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-30 00:00:00+00:0099.96—
WBTC / WBTC2026-05-31 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:0099.23—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-02 00:00:00+00:0092.95—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-03 00:00:00+00:0084.65—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:0073.09—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:0066.14—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-06 00:00:00+00:0062.51—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-07 00:00:00+00:0068.33—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-08 00:00:00+00:0077.21—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:0072.13—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-10 00:00:00+00:0068.09—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:0075.03—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-12 00:00:00+00:0079.97—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-13 00:00:00+00:0082.11—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-14 00:00:00+00:0084.58—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-15 00:00:00+00:0095.15—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-16 00:00:00+00:0096.38—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:0094.02—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-18 00:00:00+00:0088.23—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-19 00:00:00+00:0085.10—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-20 00:00:00+00:0089.40—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-21 00:00:00+00:0091.27—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-22 00:00:00+00:0094.18—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:0089.34—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:0084.91—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-25 00:00:00+00:0081.52—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:0078.12—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-27 00:00:00+00:0081.70—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-28 00:00:00+00:0080.59—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-29 00:00:00+00:0080.68—
WBTC / WBTC2026-06-30 00:00:00+00:0075.73—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-01 00:00:00+00:0078.13—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-02 00:00:00+00:0089.09—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-03 00:00:00+00:0094.31—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:0098.21—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-05 00:00:00+00:0099.87—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-06 00:00:00+00:0099.31—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:0099.48—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-09 00:00:00+00:0099.74—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-10 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-11 00:00:00+00:0099.78—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-12 00:00:00+00:0099.94—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-13 00:00:00+00:0099.17—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-14 00:00:00+00:0098.70—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-15 00:00:00+00:0099.05—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:0099.11—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-18 00:00:00+00:0099.23—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-19 00:00:00+00:0099.19—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-20 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-21 00:00:00+00:0099.35—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-22 00:00:00+00:0099.32—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-23 00:00:00+00:0099.20—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-25 00:00:00+00:0099.85—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-26 00:00:00+00:0099.24—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:0099.28—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:0099.64—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WBTC / WBTC2026-07-31 00:00:00+00:0099.45—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-01 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-02 00:00:00+00:0099.30—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-03 00:00:00+00:0099.64—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-04 00:00:00+00:0099.66—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-05 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-06 00:00:00+00:0099.96—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-07 00:00:00+00:0099.90—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-08 00:00:00+00:0099.85—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-09 00:00:00+00:0099.80—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-10 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-11 00:00:00+00:0099.67—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-12 00:00:00+00:0099.80—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-13 00:00:00+00:0099.62—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-14 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-15 00:00:00+00:0099.95—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-16 00:00:00+00:0099.99—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-17 00:00:00+00:0099.60—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-18 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:0097.44—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:0085.74—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-21 00:00:00+00:0066.62—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-22 00:00:00+00:0064.55—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-23 00:00:00+00:0065.91—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:0062.05—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-25 00:00:00+00:0058.25—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-26 00:00:00+00:0061.13—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:0057.86—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-28 00:00:00+00:0060.25—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-29 00:00:00+00:0064.43—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-30 00:00:00+00:0062.19—
WBTC / WBTC2026-08-31 00:00:00+00:0062.64—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:0064.03—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-02 00:00:00+00:0067.49—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-03 00:00:00+00:0060.89—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:0057.13—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-05 00:00:00+00:0058.83—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-06 00:00:00+00:0058.33—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:0059.92—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:0063.09—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-09 00:00:00+00:0062.43—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:0066.97—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:0068.70—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:0069.19—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-13 00:00:00+00:0070.28—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:0066.54—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-15 00:00:00+00:0072.81—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:0077.83—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:0074.67—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-18 00:00:00+00:0065.57—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:0057.90—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:0059.58—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-21 00:00:00+00:0050.47—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-22 00:00:00+00:0046.18—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-23 00:00:00+00:0047.46—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-24 00:00:00+00:0050.67—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-25 00:00:00+00:0050.49—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-26 00:00:00+00:0050.82—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-27 00:00:00+00:0049.51—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-28 00:00:00+00:0052.78—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-29 00:00:00+00:0052.33—
WBTC / WBTC2026-09-30 00:00:00+00:0052.13—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-26 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-27 00:00:00+00:0099.54—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-29 00:00:00+00:0099.88—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-30 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-05-31 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:0099.20—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-02 00:00:00+00:0092.62—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-03 00:00:00+00:0084.17—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:0071.31—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:0063.95—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-06 00:00:00+00:0059.72—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-07 00:00:00+00:0066.16—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-08 00:00:00+00:0073.38—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:0068.38—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-10 00:00:00+00:0064.54—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:0071.99—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-12 00:00:00+00:0076.05—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-13 00:00:00+00:0078.17—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-14 00:00:00+00:0080.70—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-15 00:00:00+00:0091.74—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-16 00:00:00+00:0092.20—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:0089.31—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-18 00:00:00+00:0082.71—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-19 00:00:00+00:0079.45—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-20 00:00:00+00:0083.95—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-21 00:00:00+00:0086.02—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-22 00:00:00+00:0088.00—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:0080.97—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:0076.33—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-25 00:00:00+00:0071.31—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:0068.72—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-27 00:00:00+00:0072.14—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-28 00:00:00+00:0069.99—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-29 00:00:00+00:0070.04—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-06-30 00:00:00+00:0065.55—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-01 00:00:00+00:0067.22—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-02 00:00:00+00:0077.71—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-03 00:00:00+00:0082.86—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:0088.76—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-05 00:00:00+00:0089.24—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-06 00:00:00+00:0092.82—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:0096.12—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:0092.57—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-09 00:00:00+00:0094.50—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-10 00:00:00+00:0099.33—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-11 00:00:00+00:0099.93—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-12 00:00:00+00:0099.98—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-13 00:00:00+00:0099.24—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-14 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-15 00:00:00+00:0099.54—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:0099.20—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-18 00:00:00+00:0099.33—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-19 00:00:00+00:0099.74—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-20 00:00:00+00:0099.73—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-21 00:00:00+00:0099.27—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-22 00:00:00+00:0099.33—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-23 00:00:00+00:0099.21—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-25 00:00:00+00:0099.90—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-26 00:00:00+00:0099.83—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:0099.42—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:0099.34—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:0099.84—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:0099.59—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-07-31 00:00:00+00:0099.40—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-01 00:00:00+00:0099.37—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-02 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-03 00:00:00+00:0099.65—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-04 00:00:00+00:0099.56—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-05 00:00:00+00:0099.83—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-06 00:00:00+00:0099.81—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-07 00:00:00+00:0099.79—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-08 00:00:00+00:0099.99—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-09 00:00:00+00:0099.96—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-10 00:00:00+00:0099.70—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-11 00:00:00+00:0099.48—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-12 00:00:00+00:0099.61—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-13 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-14 00:00:00+00:0099.90—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-15 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-16 00:00:00+00:0099.94—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-17 00:00:00+00:0099.72—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-18 00:00:00+00:0099.32—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:0099.31—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:0098.81—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-21 00:00:00+00:0087.93—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-22 00:00:00+00:0086.26—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-23 00:00:00+00:0087.75—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:0083.80—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-25 00:00:00+00:0079.69—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-26 00:00:00+00:0084.37—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:0080.15—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-28 00:00:00+00:0083.15—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-29 00:00:00+00:0089.93—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-30 00:00:00+00:0088.11—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-08-31 00:00:00+00:0088.56—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:0090.03—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-02 00:00:00+00:0093.53—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-03 00:00:00+00:0086.57—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:0083.06—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-05 00:00:00+00:0085.96—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-06 00:00:00+00:0085.43—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:0088.92—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:0097.11—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-09 00:00:00+00:0098.11—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:0099.79—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:0099.14—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:0099.77—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-13 00:00:00+00:0099.47—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:0099.65—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-15 00:00:00+00:0099.30—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:0099.94—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:0099.65—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-18 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:0099.31—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:0099.70—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-21 00:00:00+00:0099.54—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-22 00:00:00+00:0099.69—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-23 00:00:00+00:0099.46—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-24 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-25 00:00:00+00:0099.82—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-26 00:00:00+00:0099.52—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-27 00:00:00+00:0099.88—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-28 00:00:00+00:0099.39—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-29 00:00:00+00:0099.88—
cbBTC / cbBTC2026-09-30 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-26 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-27 00:00:00+00:0099.45—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:0099.43—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-29 00:00:00+00:0099.74—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-30 00:00:00+00:0099.91—
tBTC / tBTC2026-05-31 00:00:00+00:0099.97—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-01 00:00:00+00:0098.89—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-02 00:00:00+00:0091.84—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-03 00:00:00+00:0082.10—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:0070.51—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:0063.36—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-06 00:00:00+00:0059.14—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-07 00:00:00+00:0064.49—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-08 00:00:00+00:0072.60—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-09 00:00:00+00:0067.55—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-10 00:00:00+00:0063.63—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:0069.72—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-12 00:00:00+00:0074.46—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-13 00:00:00+00:0077.28—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-14 00:00:00+00:0079.68—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-15 00:00:00+00:0090.83—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-16 00:00:00+00:0091.50—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-17 00:00:00+00:0087.75—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-18 00:00:00+00:0081.25—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-19 00:00:00+00:0076.91—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-20 00:00:00+00:0081.40—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-21 00:00:00+00:0083.49—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-22 00:00:00+00:0086.43—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-23 00:00:00+00:0079.72—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-24 00:00:00+00:0074.60—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-25 00:00:00+00:0069.33—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:0065.39—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-27 00:00:00+00:0068.80—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-28 00:00:00+00:0067.62—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-29 00:00:00+00:0067.68—
tBTC / tBTC2026-06-30 00:00:00+00:0063.35—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-01 00:00:00+00:0064.96—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-02 00:00:00+00:0075.19—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-03 00:00:00+00:0080.03—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:0085.04—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-05 00:00:00+00:0086.67—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-06 00:00:00+00:0089.18—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:0093.05—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-08 00:00:00+00:0088.37—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-09 00:00:00+00:0091.17—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-10 00:00:00+00:0096.77—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-11 00:00:00+00:0097.82—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-12 00:00:00+00:0097.25—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-13 00:00:00+00:0093.39—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-14 00:00:00+00:0096.02—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-15 00:00:00+00:0099.40—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-16 00:00:00+00:0099.46—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-17 00:00:00+00:0099.11—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-18 00:00:00+00:0099.33—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-19 00:00:00+00:0099.28—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-20 00:00:00+00:0099.60—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-21 00:00:00+00:0099.37—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-22 00:00:00+00:0099.59—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-23 00:00:00+00:0099.23—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-24 00:00:00+00:0099.43—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-25 00:00:00+00:0099.36—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-26 00:00:00+00:0099.19—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:0099.42—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-28 00:00:00+00:0099.44—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-29 00:00:00+00:0099.65—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
tBTC / tBTC2026-07-31 00:00:00+00:0099.46—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-01 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-02 00:00:00+00:0099.13—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-03 00:00:00+00:0099.55—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-04 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-05 00:00:00+00:0099.68—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-06 00:00:00+00:0099.92—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-07 00:00:00+00:0099.90—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-08 00:00:00+00:0099.95—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-09 00:00:00+00:0099.93—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-10 00:00:00+00:0099.76—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-11 00:00:00+00:0099.48—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-12 00:00:00+00:0099.58—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-13 00:00:00+00:0099.64—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-14 00:00:00+00:0099.89—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-15 00:00:00+00:0099.29—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-16 00:00:00+00:0099.39—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-17 00:00:00+00:0099.14—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-18 00:00:00+00:0099.64—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-19 00:00:00+00:0098.71—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-20 00:00:00+00:0088.17—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-21 00:00:00+00:0067.82—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-22 00:00:00+00:0065.05—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-23 00:00:00+00:0066.37—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-24 00:00:00+00:0062.70—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-25 00:00:00+00:0059.04—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-26 00:00:00+00:0061.91—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-27 00:00:00+00:0058.61—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-28 00:00:00+00:0060.73—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-29 00:00:00+00:0065.33—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-30 00:00:00+00:0063.52—
tBTC / tBTC2026-08-31 00:00:00+00:0063.97—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-01 00:00:00+00:0065.15—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-02 00:00:00+00:0068.87—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-03 00:00:00+00:0061.97—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:0057.90—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-05 00:00:00+00:0059.69—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-06 00:00:00+00:0059.22—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:0060.98—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-08 00:00:00+00:0064.17—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-09 00:00:00+00:0063.69—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-10 00:00:00+00:0068.36—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-11 00:00:00+00:0069.93—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:0070.60—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-13 00:00:00+00:0071.45—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-14 00:00:00+00:0067.85—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-15 00:00:00+00:0073.90—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-16 00:00:00+00:0078.91—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:0076.16—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-18 00:00:00+00:0066.85—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:0058.89—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:0060.85—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-21 00:00:00+00:0051.48—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-22 00:00:00+00:0047.06—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-23 00:00:00+00:0048.42—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-24 00:00:00+00:0051.78—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-25 00:00:00+00:0051.57—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-26 00:00:00+00:0051.90—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-27 00:00:00+00:0050.54—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-28 00:00:00+00:0053.87—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-29 00:00:00+00:0053.44—
tBTC / tBTC2026-09-30 00:00:00+00:0053.10—
WBTC stall window2026-06-02T14:20:11+00:00—2026-06-14T23:16:11+00:00
WBTC stall window2026-06-18T03:01:35+00:00—2026-06-20T22:28:35+00:00
WBTC stall window2026-06-23T05:18:47+00:00—2026-07-02T13:19:23+00:00
WBTC stall window2026-08-20T07:54:11+00:00—2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-06-02T14:02:59+00:00—2026-06-15T12:41:47+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-06-17T18:57:47+00:00—2026-06-22T13:44:11+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-06-22T15:43:35+00:00—2026-07-04T21:32:47+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-07-04T21:33:11+00:00—2026-07-05T22:20:47+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-08-21T06:48:23+00:00—2026-08-23T05:14:35+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-08-23T08:09:47+00:00—2026-08-28T16:24:11+00:00
cbBTC stall window2026-08-29T13:11:23+00:00—2026-08-30T23:36:11+00:00
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G2 Donations, the gate and when volatility arrives

More donations reduce serious detachment in these tests.

Measure: first serious episodes by day 365, in percent of paths starting outside the serious tier

Compared: volatility-scaled histories with plain histories, using the same proposal settings

Same for both: the donation rate and the price-average speed

Higher means: more paths develop a serious episode

The dotted line on the chart is 5.00%.

Both versions use a resettable floor. This rule lowers the protected accounting threshold after a permitted move below it. Volatility scaling resizes sampled price moves to match volatility on their new dates.

Measure: the same first-episode share, in percent

Compared: the deployed gate with the resettable-floor proposal

Same for both: the rebuilt WETH histories and donation rates up to 6% a year

Higher means: more paths have a serious episode

In this scan the deployed gate stays above the rarity limits at every tested rate.

Donations supply capital from outside the pool. Serious detachment means too little trading depth remains at the market price. An episode is a sustained period below a depth threshold. The profit gate limits which centre-price moves the pool can make.

Whether serious detachment becomes rare depends on this gate. The timing of market moves matters too.

The scan changes annual donations. The other named settings stay fixed.

Under the deployed gate, no tested rate passes both rarity limits. The proposal with a resettable floor passes at some rates on plain rebuilt histories. That result disappears when sampled moves are scaled to the volatility of their new dates.

Under the deployed gate, no tested donation rate through 6% a year passes both “almost never” limits. With the proposal and resettable floor on plain rebuilt histories, the first passing rate is about 1.20% with faster price averages. With the original averages it is about 1.60%.

Each panel compares plain and volatility-scaled histories at its named averaging speed. Both curves use the same proposal and resettable floor.

Open markers pass both rarity tests. One test allows for uncertainty in the event count. The other limits time spent below the depth threshold.

Error bars resample whole histories. No deployed-gate setting passes both tests through 6% annual donations.

More detail: all policy, gate and averaging settings
Full plain-history scan: current and proposed price rules under both gates and both averaging speeds. The companion row zooms in on the rarity threshold. The table gives onset counts, history counts, time below depth and upper confidence limits.
Full scan across both history constructions. Each speed has a plain and a volatility-scaled panel. Companion panels sit near the qualifying line. The table records every tested gate and rule, including settings that fail the rarity limits.

Donations create headroom for a re-peg to pass the profit gate. The deployed gate keeps its protected floor after a re-peg. Later moves then need fresh profit or funding to rebuild that headroom.

The first passing rates come from the tested grid. The minimum donation rate needed remains uncertain. Some resamples have no passing rate within the scan.

All curves fix reserved profit at 42.91% and use 180-day blocks. Half-life means the time for a price’s weight to halve. Faster price averages use halved half-lives. The current rule keeps its own averaging settings unchanged.

Proposal with resettable floor, at the stated averaging speedFirst passing donation rate, %/yrBoundary uncertainty, %/yrResamples with no passing rate through 6%, %
Original EMA half-lives1.600.60 or beyond the scan25.55%
Halved EMA half-lives1.200.60 or beyond the scan5.50%
More detail

Chart error bars estimate uncertainty in event frequency. The table interval instead estimates uncertainty in the first donation rate passing both rarity rules. Both use 2,000 resamples of whole rebuilt histories.

“Beyond the scan” means no rate through 6% passed in those resamples. It is not a measured rate beyond 6%. The resettable floor allows the protected accounting threshold to fall after an allowed move.

Where the volatility falls matters

Take the proposal with resettable floor, faster price averages and 1.20% donations. First serious onset by day 365 rises from 2.73% on plain histories to 6.64% on volatility-scaled histories. Mean time below serious depth over the 556 days rises from 0.25% to 1.91%.

Both constructions reuse one original WETH price history.

Volatility scaling stretches or shrinks each sampled price move. The scale is the volatility of the move’s new date compared with its source date. Each move keeps its direction but changes size.

The scaling changes when large fluctuations arrive. It also changes the cumulative direction of prices.

More detail

At 1.20% annual donations, the proposal with resettable floor and faster price averages is compared across 256 paired histories. The plain first-episode probability interval is 0.78% to 5.08%. The scaled interval is 3.52% to 9.77%.

Scaled histories also exceed the allowed time below serious depth. Both use 180-day blocks.

The shared settings and conventions distinguish these depth, event and quote measures from return rates.

The settings table defines the current-rule and proposal bundles. Each result states its donation rate.

The settings page defines the scanned bundles and rate conventions. These histories simulate arbitrage and the debt-financed YB holder. The customer-response page explains the separate demand question.

Chart data · Serious detachment against annual donations
% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365
Panel / curveCoordinate · Donation rate, % of pool value per year% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365Interval lowInterval highPasses both rarity testsPaths starting outside the tierMean time below tier over 556 days, %Upper confidence limit for first onset, %Paths with first onset by day 365
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6098.0095.00100.00010052.7699.3498
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2053.0043.0063.00010013.4961.0253
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6032.0023.0041.00010010.9040.0632
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0027.0019.0036.00010010.2034.8427
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5023.0015.0032.0001008.4430.5823
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0021.0014.0029.0201007.0928.4221
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0017.0010.0025.0001005.2124.0317
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0015.009.0022.0001004.8321.7915
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0013.007.0020.0001004.4119.5213
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.121.175.4702560.275.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.203.121.175.4702560.245.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.731.175.0812560.244.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.731.175.0812560.224.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.002.731.175.0812560.214.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6090.0084.0095.00010049.4193.9390
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2077.0068.0085.00010028.9983.1677
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6031.0022.0040.0001008.4339.0231
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0026.0018.0035.0001007.1533.7826
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5021.0013.9829.0001005.5728.4221
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0018.0011.0026.0001005.2925.1418
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0013.007.0020.0001004.5519.5213
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0011.005.0018.0001004.1617.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0011.005.0017.0001003.7217.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.911.566.2502560.286.4310
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.202.730.785.0812560.254.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.001.950.393.9112560.163.965
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6098.0095.00100.00010052.7699.3498
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2053.0043.0063.00010013.4961.0253
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6032.0023.0041.00010010.9040.0632
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0027.0019.0036.00010010.2034.8427
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5023.0015.0032.0001008.4430.5823
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0021.0014.0029.0201007.0928.4221
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0017.0010.0025.0001005.2124.0317
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0015.009.0022.0001004.8321.7915
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0013.007.0020.0001004.4119.5213
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.121.175.4702560.275.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.203.121.175.4702560.245.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.731.175.0812560.244.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.731.175.0812560.224.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.002.731.175.0812560.214.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6090.0084.0095.00010049.4193.9390
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2077.0068.0085.00010028.9983.1677
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6031.0022.0040.0001008.4339.0231
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0026.0018.0035.0001007.1533.7826
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5021.0013.9829.0001005.5728.4221
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0018.0011.0026.0001005.2925.1418
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0013.007.0020.0001004.5519.5213
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0011.005.0018.0001004.1617.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0011.005.0017.0001003.7217.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.911.566.2502560.286.4310
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.202.730.785.0812560.254.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.001.950.393.9112560.163.965
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Reference line—5.00———————
Chart data · Serious detachment against annual donations
% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365
Panel / curveCoordinate · Donation rate, % of pool value per year% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365Interval lowInterval highPasses both rarity testsPaths starting outside the tierMean time below tier over 556 days, %Upper confidence limit for first onset, %Paths with first onset by day 365
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6098.0095.00100.00010052.7699.3498
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2053.0043.0063.00010013.4961.0253
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6032.0023.0041.00010010.9040.0632
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0027.0019.0036.00010010.2034.8427
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5023.0015.0032.0001008.4430.5823
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0021.0014.0029.0201007.0928.4221
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0017.0010.0025.0001005.2124.0317
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0015.009.0022.0001004.8321.7915
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0013.007.0020.0001004.4119.5213
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.121.175.4702560.275.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.203.121.175.4702560.245.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.731.175.0812560.244.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.731.175.0812560.224.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.002.731.175.0812560.214.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6090.0084.0095.00010049.4193.9390
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2077.0068.0085.00010028.9983.1677
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6031.0022.0040.0001008.4339.0231
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0026.0018.0035.0001007.1533.7826
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5021.0013.9829.0001005.5728.4221
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0018.0011.0026.0001005.2925.1418
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0013.007.0020.0001004.5519.5213
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0011.005.0018.0001004.1617.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0011.005.0017.0001003.7217.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.911.566.2502560.286.4310
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.202.730.785.0812560.254.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.001.950.393.9112560.163.965
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Plain · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010070.21100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010069.23100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010068.15100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010067.22100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010064.45100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.00100.00100.00100.00010059.71100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.00100.00100.00100.00010056.94100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.00100.00100.00100.00010051.44100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.609.004.0015.0001002.3714.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.004.0015.0001002.3514.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.6012.006.0019.0001002.5918.3712
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.0010.005.0016.0001002.2916.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.5010.005.0016.0001002.2716.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.0010.005.0016.0001002.2516.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.0010.005.0016.0001002.1816.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.009.004.0015.0001002.0914.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.008.003.0014.0001001.7213.658
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010068.17100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010065.14100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010062.38100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010057.68100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010054.58100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0098.0095.00100.00010048.8999.3498
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0094.0089.0098.00010036.2996.8794
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0080.0072.0087.00010027.9785.7580
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.609.776.2513.6702562.3113.2525
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.209.776.2513.6702562.3013.2525
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002562.2812.3723
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.008.205.0811.7202561.4611.4821
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.507.424.3010.9402561.3510.5819
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.007.033.9110.1602561.2810.1318
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.005.863.128.9802561.268.7715
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.005.863.128.9802561.258.7715
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.005.472.738.5902561.108.3114
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010070.21100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010069.23100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010068.15100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010067.22100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010064.45100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate4.00100.00100.00100.00010059.71100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate5.00100.00100.00100.00010056.94100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · deployed gate6.00100.00100.00100.00010051.44100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor0.609.004.0015.0001002.3714.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.004.0015.0001002.3514.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor1.6012.006.0019.0001002.5918.3712
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.0010.005.0016.0001002.2916.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor2.5010.005.0016.0001002.2716.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor3.0010.005.0016.0001002.2516.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor4.0010.005.0016.0001002.1816.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor5.009.004.0015.0001002.0914.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Current policy · resettable floor6.008.003.0014.0001001.7213.658
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.91100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010066.34100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010063.41100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010061.61100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010058.24100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010052.27100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0097.0093.00100.00010043.1098.7997
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0089.0082.0094.00010035.0593.1589
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0075.0067.0083.00010021.6581.4075
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.606.643.529.7702561.959.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.206.643.529.7702561.919.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.606.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.006.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.506.643.529.7702561.869.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.006.643.529.7702561.859.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.5902561.088.3114
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6098.0095.00100.00010052.7699.3498
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2053.0043.0063.00010013.4961.0253
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6032.0023.0041.00010010.9040.0632
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0027.0019.0036.00010010.2034.8427
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5023.0015.0032.0001008.4430.5823
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0021.0014.0029.0201007.0928.4221
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0017.0010.0025.0001005.2124.0317
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0015.009.0022.0001004.8321.7915
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0013.007.0020.0001004.4119.5213
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.121.175.4702560.275.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.203.121.175.4702560.245.468
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.731.175.0812560.244.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.731.175.0812560.234.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.731.175.0812560.224.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.002.731.175.0812560.214.977
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010060.76100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010059.99100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010058.00100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010056.11100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010050.32100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010045.74100.00100
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.0086.0079.0092.00010027.7590.7686
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.0068.0059.0077.0001008.8175.1168
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.0060.0051.0070.0001005.4867.6960
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.6010.166.6414.0602560.5813.6926
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.386.2412.8902560.5512.8124
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002560.4812.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.008.985.4712.5002560.4712.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.508.985.4712.5002560.4612.3723
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.007.424.3010.9402560.4010.5819
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.2002560.268.3114
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.005.082.737.8102560.257.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.005.082.737.8102560.237.8413
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.6090.0084.0095.00010049.4193.9390
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.2077.0068.0085.00010028.9983.1677
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.6031.0022.0040.0001008.4339.0231
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.0026.0018.0035.0001007.1533.7826
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.5021.0013.9829.0001005.5728.4221
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.0018.0011.0026.0001005.2925.1418
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0013.007.0020.0001004.5519.5213
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0011.005.0018.0001004.1617.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0011.005.0017.0001003.7217.2111
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.603.911.566.2502560.286.4310
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.202.730.785.0812560.254.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.602.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.002.730.785.0812560.244.977
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.502.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.002.340.784.3012560.204.476
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.001.950.393.9112560.163.965
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Plain · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010070.21100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010069.23100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010068.15100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010067.22100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010064.45100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.00100.00100.00100.00010059.71100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.00100.00100.00100.00010056.94100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.00100.00100.00100.00010051.44100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.609.004.0015.0001002.3714.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.004.0015.0001002.3514.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.6012.006.0019.0001002.5918.3712
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.0010.005.0016.0001002.2916.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.5010.005.0016.0001002.2716.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.0010.005.0016.0001002.2516.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.0010.005.0016.0001002.1816.0410
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.009.004.0015.0001002.0914.859
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.008.003.0014.0001001.7213.658
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010068.17100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010065.14100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010062.38100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010057.68100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010054.58100.00100
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0098.0095.00100.00010048.8999.3498
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0094.0089.0098.00010036.2996.8794
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0080.0072.0087.00010027.9785.7580
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.609.776.2513.6702562.3113.2525
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.209.776.2513.6702562.3013.2525
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.608.985.4712.5002562.2812.3723
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.008.205.0811.7202561.4611.4821
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.507.424.3010.9402561.3510.5819
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.007.033.9110.1602561.2810.1318
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.005.863.128.9802561.268.7715
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.005.863.128.9802561.258.7715
Volatility-scaled · original EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.005.472.738.5902561.108.3114
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.40100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010070.21100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010069.23100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010068.15100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010067.22100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010064.45100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate4.00100.00100.00100.00010059.71100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate5.00100.00100.00100.00010056.94100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · deployed gate6.00100.00100.00100.00010051.44100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor0.609.004.0015.0001002.3714.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.209.004.0015.0001002.3514.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor1.6012.006.0019.0001002.5918.3712
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.0010.005.0016.0001002.2916.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor2.5010.005.0016.0001002.2716.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor3.0010.005.0016.0001002.2516.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor4.0010.005.0016.0001002.1816.0410
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor5.009.004.0015.0001002.0914.859
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Current policy · resettable floor6.008.003.0014.0001001.7213.658
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate0.60100.00100.00100.00010071.91100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.20100.00100.00100.00010066.34100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate1.60100.00100.00100.00010063.41100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.00100.00100.00100.00010061.61100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate2.50100.00100.00100.00010058.24100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate3.00100.00100.00100.00010052.27100.00100
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate4.0097.0093.00100.00010043.1098.7997
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate5.0089.0082.0094.00010035.0593.1589
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · deployed gate6.0075.0067.0083.00010021.6581.4075
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor0.606.643.529.7702561.959.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.206.643.529.7702561.919.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor1.606.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.006.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor2.506.643.529.7702561.869.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor3.006.643.529.7702561.859.6817
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor4.005.472.738.5902561.088.3114
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor5.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Volatility-scaled · halved EMA half-lives · near the qualifying line / Proposed policy · resettable floor6.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Reference line—5.00———————
Chart data · The proposal with resettable floor: plain against scaled histories
% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365
Panel / curveCoordinate · Donation rate, % of pool value per year% of paths starting outside the serious tier with a first episode by day 365Interval lowInterval highPasses both rarity testsPaths starting outside the tierMean time below tier over 556 days, %Upper confidence limit for first onset, %Paths with first onset by day 365
Original EMA half-lives / Plain0.603.121.175.4702560.275.468
Original EMA half-lives / Plain1.203.121.175.4702560.245.468
Original EMA half-lives / Plain1.602.731.175.0812560.244.977
Original EMA half-lives / Plain2.002.731.175.0812560.234.977
Original EMA half-lives / Plain2.502.731.175.0812560.234.977
Original EMA half-lives / Plain3.002.731.175.0812560.224.977
Original EMA half-lives / Plain4.002.731.175.0812560.214.977
Original EMA half-lives / Plain5.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Original EMA half-lives / Plain6.002.340.784.3012560.174.476
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain0.603.911.566.2502560.286.4310
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain1.202.730.785.0812560.254.977
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain1.602.730.785.0812560.244.977
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain2.002.730.785.0812560.244.977
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain2.502.340.784.3012560.204.476
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain3.002.340.784.3012560.204.476
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain4.001.950.393.9112560.163.965
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain5.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Halved EMA half-lives / Plain6.001.560.393.1212560.133.434
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled0.609.776.2513.6702562.3113.2525
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled1.209.776.2513.6702562.3013.2525
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled1.608.985.4712.5002562.2812.3723
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled2.008.205.0811.7202561.4611.4821
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled2.507.424.3010.9402561.3510.5819
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled3.007.033.9110.1602561.2810.1318
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled4.005.863.128.9802561.268.7715
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled5.005.863.128.9802561.258.7715
Original EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled6.005.472.738.5902561.108.3114
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled0.606.643.529.7702561.959.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled1.206.643.529.7702561.919.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled1.606.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled2.006.643.529.7702561.909.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled2.506.643.529.7702561.869.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled3.006.643.529.7702561.859.6817
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled4.005.472.738.5902561.088.3114
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled5.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Halved EMA half-lives / Volatility-scaled6.004.692.347.4202561.067.3712
Reference line—5.00———————

G3 The directional bet decides the live stall outcome

During live Bitcoin stalls, the pool usually finished ahead of holding its opening coins.

Measure: ending investment value, in USD per million of opening wealth, pool minus holding

Compared: investing in the live pool with holding that stall’s opening coins

Same for both: each Bitcoin stall, counted until recovery or the study endpoint

Higher means: the pool finishes further ahead of holding

A stall is a gap above 5% between price_scale and the market, lasting at least 24 hours.

The distribution covers every observed stall. It includes stalls still open at the study endpoint. These comparisons include trades, fees and changes in the number of shares.

The pool’s holdings determine which price moves help or hurt. The harvesting and curvature comparisons below ask separate questions on the same live price path. The repair page shows the capital needed to restore the pool’s centre price.

Across 18 live Bitcoin stalls, the pool usually ends ahead of holding its opening coins. It ends ahead in 14 stalls. It ends behind in 3 stalls. It is tied in 1 stall. Each comparison uses the same end price, including the study endpoint for open stalls.

Each point is the pool’s investment value minus the value of holding that stall’s opening coins. The unit is dollars per million of starting wealth. Higher points favour the pool.

Hollow diamonds stop at the study endpoint while the stall remains open. Other points stop at recovery.

Missed harvesting

Measure: harvesting lost by drifting from equal asset values, in percentage points of pool value

Compared: a pool holding equal value in cash and WBTC with the mix WBTC actually held

Same for both: the same live prices over 128 days, with the mix measured before each price move

Higher means: more harvesting was forgone as the pool drifted from equal asset values

Very small: the equal-value term is larger by only 0.038 percentage points of pool value over the 128 days. The pool’s drift away from equal value gave up almost no harvesting.

Curvature-exposure gap

Measure: estimated loss difference before fees over 128 days, in percentage points of pool value

Compared: the pool centred on the market with the actual off-centre WBTC pool

Same for both: pool value, curve shape and live WBTC prices from 26 May 2026 to 1 October 2026

Higher means: the actual pool had less trading depth at the market price while prices moved

The centred pool’s estimate is larger by 1.08 percentage points of pool value over the 128 days. The estimate assumes that arbitrageurs correct every price move at once. It also assumes they pay no fees.

The estimate measures potential losses to arbitrageurs, not a payment made by either pool. The repair page measures funding needs. The attachment page tests returns after funded maintenance.

Chart data · All Bitcoin stall outcomes against holding
USD per million of opening wealth
Panel / curveCoordinate · Stall start, UTCUSD per million of opening wealthStill open at the endpoint
Every observed Bitcoin stall / WBTC2026-06-02T14:20:11+00:00+3,550.250
Every observed Bitcoin stall / WBTC2026-06-18T03:01:35+00:00+582.730
Every observed Bitcoin stall / WBTC2026-06-23T05:18:47+00:00+2,387.100
Every observed Bitcoin stall / WBTC2026-08-20T07:54:11+00:00−11,234.051
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-06-02T14:02:59+00:00+2,895.800
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-06-17T18:57:47+00:00+919.880
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-06-22T15:43:35+00:00+2,977.750
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-07-04T21:33:11+00:000.000
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-08-21T06:48:23+00:00+851.480
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-08-23T08:09:47+00:00+1,629.910
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-08-29T13:11:23+00:00−39.790
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-08-31T05:04:47+00:00+25.790
Every observed Bitcoin stall / cbBTC2026-09-03T11:18:35+00:00+2,056.450
Every observed Bitcoin stall / tBTC2026-06-02T13:49:11+00:00+2,958.320
Every observed Bitcoin stall / tBTC2026-06-17T16:30:47+00:00+1,040.750
Every observed Bitcoin stall / tBTC2026-06-22T14:00:47+00:00+2,887.790
Every observed Bitcoin stall / tBTC2026-07-08T01:36:35+00:00+293.200
Every observed Bitcoin stall / tBTC2026-08-20T08:09:23+00:00−11,335.621
Reference line—0—

G4 Repairing a detached pool needs capital

Repairing a detached pool often needs more accounting capital than the gate has available.

Measure: extra reserves needed for full re-centring to pass the gate, as a percentage of pool market value

Compared: the pool’s original reserves with the same pool after a proportional top-up

Same for both: shares, unlocked shares and the protected floor, all held fixed

Higher means: more additional capital is needed

Full re-centring moves the pool’s centre price to the market price. The gate is the accounting check that permits centre-price moves. The top-up adds both reserve assets in their existing proportions.

Among these stalls, WBTC’s August–October stall needs the largest reserve top-up. At that peak, the extra reserves needed for full re-centring equal 3.87% of pool market value. That is $2.71 million. The corresponding peaks are 3.75% for tBTC and 2.51% for cbBTC’s June stall.

Pool and stallReserve top-up needed, % of pool valueReserve top-up needed, million USD
WBTC, August–October3.872.71
tBTC, August–October3.751.42
cbBTC, June2.511.99

It is a funding need with the floor and shares held fixed, not money the pool spends.

The repair calculation adds reserves while keeping LP supply, the protected floor and unlocked shares fixed. An executable donation instead follows the contract’s minting and lock rules. The funded-attachment test measures wealth after repeated maintenance. It includes the external funding costs.

The live-peak and simulated-episode calculations find the reserve top-up needed for full re-centring. Shares and the floor stay fixed in them. A separate test asks whether the next controller step would pass if an update were supplied. The executable-donation test then applies the actual minting, lock and share-cap rules.

Measure: serious-episode time in which the budget would refuse a supplied update, in percent of episode time

Compared: the current rule at the lower donation rate with the same rule at the higher rate

Same for both: the same plain WETH histories

Higher means: the budget blocks repairs for more of the episode

On plain WETH histories with the current rule and deployed gate, an update at an episode state is usually not enough. The budget still rejects the next controller step through 99.87% of serious-episode time at 1.20% annual donations. At 6.00% donations the share is 99.71%.

Each point averages the extra reserve capital needed for full re-centring to pass the stated gate. The unit is a percentage of pool value at that moment.

The average weights merged serious episodes by their duration, including brief recoveries. Only histories with episodes contribute. Intervals resample whole histories. Plain and volatility-scaled histories are shown separately.

The current price rule with shared financing settings and the deployed gate is tested on plain WETH histories. Full re-centring requires an average reserve top-up of 15.51% of pool value at 1.20% annual donations. At 6.00% donations the average is 10.35%.

The average covers episode time. The protected floor, LP supply and unlocked shares stay fixed.

Measure: the share of episode peaks where no permitted donation funds full re-centring, in percent of tested peaks

Compared: the current rule at the lower donation rate with the same rule at the higher rate

Same for both: the same 7-day wait, with prices unchanged and no operations

Higher means: more peaks where the share cap blocks the repair

The executable-donation test mints and locks shares within the contract’s cap. It waits 7 days with prices unchanged and no operations. It then tests the full re-centring budget.

No permitted deposit passes at 24.70% of episode peaks with 1.20% annual donations. With 6.00% donations the share is 4.55%. A passing deposit funds the target. The controller’s step limit still governs an actual move.

More detail

In the low-donation current-rule run, 99.40% of serious-episode blocks have no actual pool operation. Separately, the budget test supplies an update opportunity at each state and asks whether the next step would pass. A block can satisfy both descriptions.

Repair averages use merged episode time. Uncertainty intervals resample the 100 rebuilt histories.

The shared settings and conventions distinguish these depth, event and quote measures from return rates.

The settings table defines the current-rule and proposal bundles. Each result states its donation rate.

The simulated actors are arbitrageurs and the debt-financed YB holder. Customer demand requires a separate response model. The settings page defines the bundles.

Chart data · Capital needed for full re-centring during serious episodes
pp of contemporaneous pool value
Panel / curveCoordinate · Donation rate, % of pool value per yearpp of contemporaneous pool valueInterval lowInterval highRebuilt historiesHistories with serious episodes
Plain histories / Current rule · deployed gate1.2015.5113.5817.63100100
Plain histories / Current rule · deployed gate2.5011.579.7613.72100100
Plain histories / Current rule · deployed gate4.0011.138.2714.3910090
Plain histories / Current rule · deployed gate6.0010.354.0917.6110071
Plain histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs1.202.962.753.121004
Plain histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs2.502.782.513.061003
Plain histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs4.002.862.732.981002
Plain histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs6.002.652.562.741002
Volatility-scaled histories / Current rule · deployed gate1.2017.1514.9619.55100100
Volatility-scaled histories / Current rule · deployed gate2.5016.4714.3118.79100100
Volatility-scaled histories / Current rule · deployed gate4.0016.2113.9418.69100100
Volatility-scaled histories / Current rule · deployed gate6.0015.6713.2018.18100100
Volatility-scaled histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs1.2023.474.6436.641007
Volatility-scaled histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs2.5022.654.0135.231007
Volatility-scaled histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs4.0031.951.6135.511005
Volatility-scaled histories / Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs6.0031.011.5133.651004

G5 Test orders get worse quotes during detachment

During serious episodes, standardised test orders receive worse quotes than in an equally funded centred pool.

Measure: the extra cost of the same standard order, in basis points of order value

Compared: the observed pool with an equally funded pool centred at the market price

Same for both: curve shape, fee rule, time and report information

Higher means: a worse quote in the observed pool

A centred pool places its trading capacity around the market price. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Serious episodes are sustained periods with too little depth at the market price.

During current-rule serious episodes, orders worth 0.50% of pool value cost more than in the centred reference pool. Buying ETH costs an average 192.15 bp more. Selling ETH costs 210.14 bp more. These plain WETH histories use 1.20% annual donations.

Exact quoted costs, fees included, for standardised orders worth 0.50% of pool value at that time. The reference is an equally funded centred pool at the same hourly states.

Current rule, 1.20% annual donations, plain histories. 100 histories have serious episodes.

Error bars show uncertainty from resampling whole histories. Positive values mean worse actual quotes.

The proposal’s own serious episodes come from runs with the resettable floor, faster price averages and 2.50% annual donations. In those episodes, extra cost against the centred reference averages 12.80 bp to buy ETH. The extra cost to sell ETH averages 16.89 bp.

Only 3 histories contribute. Those episodes differ from the current-rule sample.

These are quoted costs for test orders, not realised customer costs. Predicting how many trades occur or go elsewhere needs a demand model. What cannot yet be measured explains that limitation.

More detail

Both quotes use the exact fee rule and equal market-valued capital. The centred reference keeps the same accepted report, report age and price averages as the tested state. Orders are quoted hourly during merged serious episodes. The average includes negative differences, which mean the actual pool offers a better quote.

The shared settings and conventions distinguish these depth, event and quote measures from return rates.

The settings table defines the current-rule and proposal bundles. Each result states its donation rate.

The settings page defines this current-rule bundle. The customer-response page explains why quoted costs alone do not measure lost trades. Only arbitrageurs and the debt-financed YB holder are simulated.

Chart data · Current-rule test orders during serious episodes
basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred pool
ComparisonBuy ETH · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred poolSell ETH · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred poolBuy ETH · Interval low · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred poolBuy ETH · Interval high · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred poolSell ETH · Interval low · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred poolSell ETH · Interval high · basis points per order, compared with an equally funded centred pool
Current rule · 1.20%/yr192.15210.14187.16196.99203.49216.53

G6 Staying attached does not reliably raise wealth

Staying attached does not reliably increase wealth in these tests.

Measure: growth differences for the three measures below, in percentage points per year

Compared: each lower-detachment package with the current-rule control

Same for both: the same rebuilt WETH histories

Higher means: the package grows faster than the control

The tests measure returns in three ways:

  • YB-position growth measures the holder’s ETH wealth after debt.
  • M growth compares each share with a fee-free reference pool.
  • LP/xyk subtracts the donation charge from M growth.

The control pays 5% annual donations. The packages pay 1.20% or 1.60%.

A pool stays attached when its centre price stays near the market price. The first comparison tests packages that reduce detachment against a stated current-rule control on the same rebuilt histories. The packages have lower mean growth.

The second comparison forces each pool to the market centre. It counts the funding, withdrawals and execution charges. Forced maintenance has mixed outcomes under the current rule. It has a negative mean under the proposal.

Against the current-rule control on 100 shared histories, both settings lower YB-position ETH growth. The faster-average setting changes it by −4.03 pp/yr. The original-average setting changes it by −4.30 pp/yr.

Their M-growth differences are −4.61 and −4.36 pp/yr. Each rate covers the full 556-day path.

The whole packages differ in policy, gate, donation rate and price-average speed. The control uses current price rules, the deployed gate and 5% annual donations. Both sides use 42.91% reserved profit and a 1.50% LevAMM fee. Settings names these bundles.

SettingPaired historiesYB position in ETH, log pp/yrM, log pp/yrLP/xyk, log pp/yr
1.20% donations, Halved EMA half-lives100−4.03 [−5.66, −1.76]−4.61 [−5.43, −3.51]−0.99 [−1.76, +0.07]
1.60% donations, Original EMA half-lives100−4.30 [−5.93, −2.03]−4.36 [−5.17, −3.25]−1.12 [−1.89, −0.06]

The table separates pairs where neither pool has a serious episode from pairs where at least one does. Either the control or the proposal can put a pair in the second group. These groups are selected from the realised outcomes. Brackets show 95% intervals from resampling paired histories.

SettingSerious episodes over the full pathPaired historiesYB position in ETH, log pp/yrM, log pp/yrLP/xyk, log pp/yr
1.20% donations, Halved EMA half-livesBoth arms stay out of serious episodes19−4.69 [−5.59, −3.85]−5.39 [−5.66, −5.13]−1.65 [−1.93, −1.38]
1.20% donations, Halved EMA half-livesEither arm has a serious episode81−3.87 [−5.98, −1.04]−4.43 [−5.49, −3.09]−0.83 [−1.83, +0.47]
1.60% donations, Original EMA half-livesBoth arms stay out of serious episodes19−4.72 [−5.81, −3.71]−5.03 [−5.39, −4.69]−1.69 [−2.06, −1.35]
1.60% donations, Original EMA half-livesEither arm has a serious episode81−4.20 [−6.30, −1.38]−4.20 [−5.24, −2.85]−0.98 [−1.97, +0.32]

Funding before counting returned value is averaged over all 256 histories per setting. Donation charges use yearly log growth in the value of each pool share as their scale. Interest uses initial YB equity.

The growth comparisons above use only histories shared with the control. These funding averages are a separate summary.

SettingGross donated-share charge, log pp/yr of LP/xykGross interest, % of initial YB equity per year
1.20% donations, halved EMA half-lives1.162.28
1.60% donations, original EMA half-lives1.543.04

The funding measures have different denominators. They are never added together. Burns and other returned value are already reflected in the YB position. Interest alone is not the holder’s loss.

The resettable floor relaxes cumulative book-value protection. Better tracking does not by itself imply greater market-valued wealth.

More detail

The earlier example used 2.50% donations, faster price averages and a control reserving 45% of profit. Using the price-gap stall rule, the YB-growth difference was −3.69 pp/yr in 5 pairs without a stall. Across the 95 pairs with a stall, it was −3.87 pp/yr. These are separate settings from the serious-depth comparison above.

Forcing the pool to stay attached does not reliably pay

Measure: maintained-minus-unmaintained LP/xyk, in pp/yr, after the funding account and execution charges

Compared: a pool forced to stay at the market centre with the same pool left unmaintained

Same for both: the price rule, 32 plain WETH histories per rule, 2.50% annual donations

Higher means: maintenance gives a larger growth advantage over leaving the pool unmaintained

On 32 shared plain WETH histories, funded attachment changes current-rule LP/xyk by +1.71 pp/yr on average. It lowers LP/xyk in 22 histories. Under the proposal the mean is −2.02 pp/yr. Where neither pool has a price-gap stall, it is −2.12 pp/yr.

Every paired history appears once under each rule. Colour records whether the actual pool stalled. The maintained pool has no such stall.

The vertical axis shows the return difference after accounting for funding, withdrawals and execution costs. The horizontal coordinate identifies the rebuilt history. Positive values favour funded attachment. Each panel uses its own vertical scale.

This is one declared maintenance rule on 32 paired plain histories per rule, at 2.50% annual donations. The current rule uses the deployed gate. The proposal uses the resettable floor and halved EMA half-lives. Every difference compares the funded attached pool with its corresponding actual arm.

Rule and attachment groupHistoriesLP/xyk difference, log pp/yr95% intervalPositiveNegative
Current rule, all32+1.71−1.22 to +4.921022
Proposed policy, all32−2.02−3.31 to −0.891220
Proposed policy, both attached31−2.12−3.37 to −0.981120

At each supplied opportunity, the maintained pool moves its centre to market. The capital measured by its reserve curve stays fixed. The number of pool shares also stays fixed.

A funding account records reserve additions and execution costs as positive. It records withdrawals as negative. Subtract this balance from terminal market wealth before calculating LP/xyk.

All 32 current-rule histories return net funds. All 32 proposal histories require net funding.

More detail

The execution charge is 5 basis points of the change in ETH holdings, ignoring its sign, valued at the market price. The charge applies whether maintenance adds or withdraws reserve value. Cash in the funding account earns no interest.

Both pools receive the same re-peg opportunities and accepted reports. Trading and YB activity can respond to their different states. Growth covers 556 days.

“Attached” follows the price-gap stall rule. All 32 current-rule controls stall. Among proposal pairs, 31 avoid a stall.

One control holder ends with shares worth no more than its debt. The pool’s LP/xyk remains defined and included.

The settings table defines the current-rule and proposal bundles. Each result states its donation rate.

Settings and conventions defines the return rates and the price-gap stall rule used for the maintained-pool groups. The simulated actors are arbitrageurs and the debt-financed YB holder. Customer demand requires a separate response model.

Chart data · Every paired outcome after the funding account
LP/xyk difference, log pp/yr
Panel / curveCoordinate · Rebuilt history indexLP/xyk difference, log pp/yr
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls0−0.92
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls1+0.66
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls2−0.02
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls3+31.24
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls4−4.13
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls5−1.89
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls6+20.22
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls7−3.62
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls8−2.20
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls9−3.57
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls10+1.56
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls11−4.04
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls12−1.53
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls13−3.89
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls14−4.10
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls15+11.46
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls16−2.88
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls17−2.81
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls18−3.90
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls19−3.31
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls20−4.61
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls21+16.15
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls22+12.61
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls23−3.00
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls24−4.20
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls25+16.23
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls26+2.29
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls27+16.08
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls28−5.57
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls29−5.29
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls30−4.65
Current rule · deployed gate / Actual pool stalls31−3.70
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached0−10.65
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached1+1.20
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached2−6.90
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached3+1.46
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached4−2.90
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached5−5.51
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached6+0.45
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached7−0.64
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached8−7.22
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached9+0.61
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached10+1.36
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached11−2.11
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached12−5.32
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached13+0.35
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached14+0.92
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached15+0.93
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached16−2.89
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached17−0.47
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached18−3.02
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached19−2.83
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached20−2.73
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached22+2.12
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached23−2.45
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached24−2.67
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached25+1.81
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached26+1.05
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached27−11.81
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached28−1.21
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached29−0.88
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached30−2.28
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Both pools stay attached31−3.57
Proposed policy · resettable floor · halved EMAs / Actual pool stalls21+1.20
Reference line—0

H. Choosing parameters means choosing bets

A parameter choice decides how the pool behaves after a large price move. Each choice is a bet on what prices do next. This chapter names each bet, shows what our tests found, and describes what a convincing selection would show.

H1 A re-peg setting is a bet on whether a move lasts

Every re-peg setting is a bet on whether a price move lasts.

The pool trades against each price move. When ETH rises, arbitrage traders buy ETH from the pool. So the pool holds less ETH just as ETH becomes worth more. Far from its centre price, the pool holds too little of the asset that rose.

Measure: The payoff of re-pegging or stalling, shown schematically.

Compared: Moving the centre price with keeping the old centre price.

Same for both: The price rise before the choices separate.

Higher means: The named choice tends to finish ahead after the next move.

  • Re-peg. The pool moves its centre price toward the market, step by step. Its later quotes then follow the new price. The move itself sells no coins. This tends to pay if the price keeps going.
  • Stall. The pool keeps its old centre price. It keeps trading around that old price. This tends to pay if the price comes back.

Every setting in this chapter changes how often, how fast or at what cost the pool re-pegs. So every setting chooses between these two bets.

A price move can last or reverseAfter a rise, the pool holds less ETH. A lasting move favours re-pegging. A return favours stalling.Old centre priceAfter the rise:pool holds less ETHThe move lastsFavours re-peggingQuotes follow the centreThe price comes backFavours stallingQuotes keep the old centreRe-peg: restart near the marketStall: keep the old centre
Each branch shows which choice a price pattern tends to favour.
More detail: the portfolio choice

Portfolio theory studies a similar choice. Rebalancing to fixed weights gains when prices reverse. Portfolio insurance gains when moves continue, by selling as prices fall (Perold and Sharpe). A re-peg has a similar payoff without selling: it only moves the centre price.

Our drift-free tests found no clear average dollar advantage for either floor.

H2 What each setting bets on

Each setting tilts the pool toward one of the two bets.

Measure: The market conditions under which each setting pays.

Compared: Settings that favour re-pegging with settings that favour stalling.

Same for both: The choice after a market price move.

Higher means: The named setting benefits more from the stated market condition.

SettingWhat it doesIt pays whenIt loses when
Profit floor (deployed gate)Refuses a re-peg unless recorded profit can pay for itThe price comes backThe move lasts. The stall then tends to persist.
Resettable floorCan allow moves the deployed floor refuses. Lowers the protected floor after spending.The move lastsThe price snaps back after a re-peg
Higher reserved profit fractionLocks part of each profit gain away from re-pegsThe price comes backThe move lasts
Higher donation rateBuys re-peg budget; the YB holder pays interest for itRepairs are neededFew repairs are needed, or the repaired move reverses
Faster trackingMoves the centre price soonerThe new price lastsThe price snaps back, or a report is wrong
Higher capture feeCharges customers more when quotes are far from the marketCustomers keep trading at wide quotesCustomers leave

Both floors refuse a move once the budget is spent.

On the four live pools, arbitrage fees repaid 95.8% to 97.9% of what arbitrage took. See how fees repay the trading loss.

The YB pools charge no admin fee, so the reserved fraction pays nobody outside the pool. A higher fraction protects more of each new profit and leaves less budget for re-pegs.

Under the deployed gate, tracking speed matters little. A supplied re-peg would almost always fail the budget test during serious detachment. The repair tests measure that refusal. The resettable floor can still run out of budget.

H3 Returns on the team’s tested grid

On the team’s tested grid, higher past holder returns mostly came from one market term.

Measure: Correlation between the holder’s ETH growth and that market term.

Compared: The holder’s ETH growth with the market term, across 25,601 settings of the team’s grid.

Same for both: The original 556-day ETH history.

Higher means: The holder’s growth follows the market’s direction more closely.

Almost exact agreement: the correlation is 0.983. Most of the differences between these settings come from this term. Choosing by holder growth picks the loosest tracking the grid’s worst-week gap limit allows. This ranking alone does not show better trading.

Two more signs point the same way:

  • The same September Bitcoin prices gave opposite answers on two pools. Removing the floor raises yearly growth in each LP share’s market value by +10.70 pp/yr on WBTC. On cbBTC, the change is −4.37 pp/yr. See the September gate tests.
  • Both families of rebuilt histories rise on average. Plain histories rise +24.68 log pp/yr; volatility-scaled histories rise +42.46 log pp/yr. So averages over them include a rising market.

Each family contains 256 rebuilt histories. The rate conventions explain log growth.

H4 The gate on histories with no built-in direction

The drift-free tests show no clear average dollar advantage from resetting the floor.

Both families of rebuilt histories rise on average, as the previous page shows. So we rebuilt each history once more. We keep the timing and pattern of each hour’s moves. A fair coin chooses each hour’s direction. A small correction keeps the average of the possible next prices equal to today's price at each hour boundary.

Measure: Growth in the dollar value of one LP share, % per year.

Compared: The resettable floor with the deployed floor.

Same for both: 256 drift-free histories, with the same settings otherwise.

Higher means: The resettable floor did better.

Small differences: −0.32% to 0.49% per year, across both fee rules and both history families. Every 95% interval for these dollar differences includes zero. On rising histories, the same comparison ranged from −2.13% to 16.37% per year.

Each point averages within-history differences between the two floors. Bars show 95% intervals for that average.

Purple diamonds use rising histories. Blue circles use fair hourly directions. The vertical line marks zero difference.

M compares share value with a fee-free constant-product reference. In M, the four point estimates run from 0.25 to 1.20 log percentage points per year. Three of the four 95% intervals include zero. Only the volatility-scaled proposal pair stays positive throughout its interval, from 0.10 to 2.45. On these four comparisons the resettable floor was behind on 163 to 191 of 256 histories. The average mixes the coins the pool holds, harvesting, trading losses and financing.

Detachment became more common without the rise, not less. The proposal with the deployed floor had a first serious episode in 97.66% of 256 drift-free histories. These episodes occurred during their first year. On their 256 rising parents, the share was 55.08%. The profiles page gives 53.00% for the first 100 rising parents of this same setting. This is a smaller sample, with the same financing bundle.

The rising histories had hidden most of the falls.

Both low-detachment settings meet the “almost never” standard on plain drift-free histories. Neither meets it on volatility-scaled ones. On plain drift-free histories, both lower the holder’s dollar growth against the current-rule control. The difference is about −2.11% of starting dollar equity per year.

The proposal settings donate 1.20% and 1.60% per year. The current-rule control donates 5%. Their ETH arithmetic means are positive, but both intervals include zero. Only 26 and 27 of 256 paths have positive ETH differences.

Low-detachment settingDollar holder-growth difference, % starting dollar equity/year95% intervalETH arithmetic difference, % starting ETH equity/year95% intervalPaired histories
Halved EMA half-lives−2.11−3.58 to −0.41+6.65−2.01 to 21.26256
Original EMA half-lives−2.11−3.57 to −0.38+6.60−2.07 to 21.14256

The chart compares gates that share a donation rate. The holder rows above do not.

More detail: construction and measurement

We keep the timing and pattern of each hour’s moves. A fair coin chooses each hour’s direction. A small correction keeps the average of the possible next prices equal to today's price at each hour boundary.

Within an hour, the price sequence can reveal that hour’s direction.

Hourly volatility stays close to the source history. Monthly ratios range from 0.9993 to 1.0017. Dollar figures divide each change by initial value and elapsed years.

In 6 of 256 plain drift-free histories, the control holder ends with negative wealth. Full-sample holder log growth is undefined. An additional comparison excludes those terminal cases. Dollar figures keep every history.

In the first year, the centre is above market at onset in 128 drift-free histories, against 19 rising ones. Below-market counts are 122 and 122.

The tests use arbitrage-only trading with hourly update opportunities. The settings table defines the bundles.

Chart data · Gate payoff: rising versus drift-free histories
Resettable floor minus deployed floor, % of initial LP-share value per year
Gate comparisonHistory constructionMean Resettable floor minus deployed floor, % of initial LP-share value per year95% intervalPaired histories
Current fee rule · plainFair hourly directions+0.26−0.88 to 1.58256
Current fee rule · plainRising histories+13.1610.55 to 16.19256
Proposal · plainFair hourly directions−0.21−1.21 to 0.93256
Proposal · plainRising histories−2.13−3.65 to −0.40256
Current fee rule · scaledFair hourly directions−0.32−1.68 to 1.25256
Current fee rule · scaledRising histories+13.5310.24 to 17.06256
Proposal · scaledFair hourly directions+0.49−0.74 to 2.10256
Proposal · scaledRising histories+16.3712.90 to 19.91256

H5 Switching the gate during a stall

Switching floors during a stall is a bet on the next move, not a free repair.

We copied each simulated pool when a serious detachment became known. One copy kept the deployed floor. The other switched to the resettable floor. Both copies then faced the same prices.

M compares share value with a fee-free constant-product reference.

Measure: Change in M over the next 30 days, log percentage points.

Compared: Switching to the resettable floor with keeping the deployed floor.

Same for both: The pool’s state at the switch and every later price.

Higher means: Switching did better.

A continuing rise generally favours switching when the centre starts below the market. A continuing fall generally favours switching when it starts above. The order of moves also matters.

The chart shows 51 stalls with the centre below market and 49 above. Each dot uses the same 30 days for the price move and M difference.

Dashed lines fit these same outcomes separately by side. The horizontal line marks zero payoff. The other history families remain in the data table.

The link is positive on one side of the market and negative on the other. Its strength ranges from 0.27 to 0.76 across 6 history families.

Average dollar results were close to zero: +0.11% and +0.15% per year. These compare the switch with keeping the floor, from the switch to each history’s endpoint. Both intervals include zero.

Switching ends the serious episode within 7 days in 72.00% to 88.00% of eligible stalls. At that same day, the deployed floor is still inside the episode on 50.00% to 89.00% of those stalls.

Average test-order quotes are 7.97 to 16.49 basis points cheaper across these families. Each test order is worth 0.50% of the pool’s value at that time.

More detail: timing and the earlier comparison

On plain histories, the same-state switch over 30 days was about −0.31 log percentage points (58 histories). Starting both floors at the beginning raised the resettable floor’s result by 0.34 log percentage points. The two pools had already drifted apart before the stall.

The annual figures use each LP share’s dollar value at the switch. Each history’s difference is divided by its own remaining years.

Fair-direction history familyAnnual mean difference, % switch LP-share dollar value/year95% intervalPaired histories
Plain+0.11−1.72 to 2.16100
Volatility-scaled+0.15−1.53 to 2.14100

These proposal-rule pairs use the same financing as the paired gate tests. Trades come from arbitrage and the simulated YB holder.

Chart data · Switch payoff: the next price move · 30 days
switch minus kept-floor M, log percentage points
Panel / curveCoordinate · ETH price move, log percentage pointsswitch minus kept-floor M, log percentage points
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−4.5854040.035311
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market13.9803351.573958
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.182842−0.803713
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market3.328740−1.698674
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market17.9457531.885516
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−10.404096−0.774798
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−2.745351−1.032092
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.317043−1.409402
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market5.1001060.366251
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market27.0012654.975926
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market14.9754772.186075
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market4.704547−0.010642
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−5.772023−1.129005
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market14.9219732.188300
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−13.391193−0.423670
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market21.074371−0.730862
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market6.9863570.582323
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−20.793936−1.655467
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−1.052838−0.712243
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.765798−0.145836
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market16.9446110.214240
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−26.634951−2.442038
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market20.8490323.671770
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market17.0729403.138547
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−6.125789−1.028521
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market19.8139142.776702
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market0.718564−1.243736
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market10.6628691.499185
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−12.581963−0.949110
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−12.181315−0.965249
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−16.157841−1.233170
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market3.8777850.017748
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.627947−0.919319
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−38.137921−1.003820
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market26.2423944.113614
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−7.7502620.428678
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market15.3727610.077482
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market5.474252−2.029407
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−1.367975−0.540517
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market15.5874572.273663
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market3.840177−0.672494
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market12.8669590.847662
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market7.390642−0.862872
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market10.7665421.086148
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market21.7216423.306675
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−6.182090−0.937128
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−26.495038−0.617071
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−18.288491−1.481269
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−14.228523−1.143054
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−11.949484−0.735614
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market7.1425240.498654
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market · fitted line−38.137921−3.30763112
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market · fitted line27.0012652.40150945
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−1.784628−1.412061
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−25.0966594.852255
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−7.9933140.399197
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−5.4692990.615564
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−5.9154950.493193
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market6.329479−1.140933
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market0.560523−0.959153
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−7.9393710.800363
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−15.5515380.850827
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market10.977917−1.329237
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−11.6071400.546191
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market0.796973−0.584204
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−44.1698518.489545
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market5.705531−2.111964
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.5205060.442242
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−2.705962−1.417629
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market31.248575−0.940673
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market14.662556−0.882738
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market14.826861−2.424299
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market46.7954641.617220
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−0.853069−0.925924
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market2.038768−1.783676
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−3.356909−0.136502
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.107192−0.599902
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market24.181641−1.612255
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−12.8316031.184613
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market0.000384−0.420569
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market15.392498−0.544333
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market7.088972−1.417865
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−2.348706−0.330628
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−39.0284066.962241
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market9.231091−0.554733
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.5769080.035062
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−27.2554926.033505
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−5.3342120.183653
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−5.9245660.194990
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−3.263606−0.729442
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market31.207993−1.034684
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.5863820.442643
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market50.794950−1.306108
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market1.786729−0.816172
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market18.929033−1.127794
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market13.495228−0.648416
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market13.685978−1.652610
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−5.201909−1.431372
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market8.956537−0.428491
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−10.7629701.052523
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market3.838298−0.543496
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−34.116008−0.559149
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market · fitted line−44.1698513.44087451
Plain histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market · fitted line50.794950−3.71494722
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.291914−0.760912
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market11.117133−1.641086
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market23.7619803.867047
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−10.970425−0.945161
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market11.387053−1.398808
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−25.640392−1.452966
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−3.815175−1.535519
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market21.1186012.237991
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market48.2924071.072097
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market8.584325−1.130555
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−24.689364−0.824130
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−8.379984−1.030562
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market27.036760−2.478960
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market34.6643340.979221
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−9.696077−1.377900
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−22.079530−1.635164
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market52.6884949.973761
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market29.576081−0.094089
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market7.8057501.365123
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market11.071320−1.304116
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market17.3643972.797086
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market1.928078−1.200369
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−25.495042−2.700811
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−27.150312−1.912070
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−28.556766−1.813482
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−5.818449−1.169644
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−14.394955−1.657868
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−11.021327−0.874626
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market9.462204−0.727685
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−27.435504−1.215318
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−21.059989−1.532942
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−15.252376−1.413611
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market21.7710383.883677
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−50.418822−0.651233
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−22.264898−2.208642
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market6.676235−1.733141
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−15.884164−1.012120
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market0.169096−0.887500
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market16.210653−0.446104
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market0.128160−1.143831
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−32.575578−0.775245
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−22.751584−1.504201
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−16.309271−1.260109
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−15.217786−1.332932
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre below market−11.287867−1.388383
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−31.4239496.149218
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market13.520007−1.599674
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−10.7193881.217374
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−0.988302−2.117870
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market5.056245−0.998836
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−22.7150223.790396
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market0.899224−1.685433
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−13.1916993.498963
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market43.8953382.298190
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−14.1731453.025843
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−17.1714253.151480
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−12.6753441.283613
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market14.773087−0.152180
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.940155−0.812746
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market11.472358−1.792415
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market24.659525−0.937822
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market2.6265960.180319
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market7.795697−1.107270
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market0.817437−1.526984
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−7.7615890.066662
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market18.493088−1.424309
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−11.8219530.794236
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market18.908271−1.458630
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market8.195619−1.037592
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market10.876119−1.296530
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market6.074333−1.036775
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−3.074747−1.552649
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−51.2760161.167397
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−18.874046−1.588308
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market40.089908−0.455088
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market1.957040−1.008681
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−46.2213180.637902
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−23.434305−0.595274
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−23.6745373.962220
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market4.578749−1.894434
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market5.400449−1.682689
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−6.087581−1.781935
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market15.258181−0.940658
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market7.042614−1.531679
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−9.5832050.071049
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−13.721794−1.386805
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−7.910049−1.373126
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market6.701850−0.842707
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−33.4790330.483409
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−8.152441−0.369507
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market47.5489721.722648
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market3.364258−1.680815
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−20.107294−0.362270
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market36.350082−1.330396
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market7.837506−2.217103
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market−16.5518182.019217
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market10.548668−1.128251
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market15.586943−1.053711
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market17.343202−1.908866
Volatility-scaled histories with fair hourly signs / Centre above market1.1000870.827362
Rising plain histories / Centre below market4.782941−0.197855
Rising plain histories / Centre below market7.4900780.200699
Rising plain histories / Centre below market7.2313840.153750
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.865321−1.324923
Rising plain histories / Centre below market10.821399−0.804630
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−0.796970−1.550386
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.1869490.681671
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.6366480.956076
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.914843−1.041210
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.4603982.371973
Rising plain histories / Centre below market6.577606−1.000974
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.5585810.974383
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.9658570.239904
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.953851−1.001155
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.422166
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.9063381.339885
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.400387
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−0.796970−1.046915
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.4324230.913851
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−9.861665−1.166941
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.417351
Rising plain histories / Centre below market6.577606−0.867887
Rising plain histories / Centre below market6.577606−0.867887
Rising plain histories / Centre below market10.776275−0.803097
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.9571170.209337
Rising plain histories / Centre below market32.0389963.713940
Rising plain histories / Centre below market7.149381−0.797491
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.9658570.188433
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.423065
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−2.041879−0.995388
Rising plain histories / Centre below market6.577606−0.975865
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.481577−1.441594
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.8593260.603336
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.8170460.257962
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−14.395141−1.921603
Rising plain histories / Centre below market11.3581250.173704
Rising plain histories / Centre below market12.9658570.146001
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.399259
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.865321−1.322289
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−0.796970−1.555149
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−49.217191−1.152239
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.9364291.321802
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−1.035085−1.430910
Rising plain histories / Centre below market11.9871200.176365
Rising plain histories / Centre below market9.684983−1.263779
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−2.901449−0.772284
Rising plain histories / Centre below market−0.796970−1.555149
Rising plain histories / Centre below market0.006863−1.534621
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.9662340.216421
Rising plain histories / Centre below market14.332928−1.133729
Rising plain histories / Centre below market8.9364290.111900
Rising plain histories / Centre below market11.3581250.189037
Rising plain histories / Centre above market0.519517−0.669451
Rising plain histories / Centre above market−31.3386835.965692
Rising plain histories / Centre above market−0.803100−0.652268
Rising plain histories / Centre above market−7.937806−1.023010
Rising plain histories / Centre above market−31.8790310.585702
Rising plain histories / Centre above market0.834842−0.886285
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.750554−1.108003
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market14.5635911.731568
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.773444
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market15.4816661.705012
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market14.5635911.720095
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.455238−0.019224
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market9.6818181.118949
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market−12.898268−0.751162
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market8.309901−2.116398
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.750554−1.099748
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market32.2023725.187639
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.768356
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market14.5635911.724157
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.773444
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.760778
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.773019
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.773743
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market14.7023730.611213
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market18.9557460.611056
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.761822
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market3.782197−1.769527
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market7.921213−0.704883
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market31.3386830.609958
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market18.9557460.611056
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market14.5635911.735127
Mirrored plain histories / Centre below market−3.843157−1.777174
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.0428520.570841
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.1987560.193112
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.1313640.185120
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.8771131.401496
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.681444−0.815887
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.483036
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.461933
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.773449−1.237879
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.458360
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0385141.290752
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.715766
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.459708
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.9356130.449939
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.464625
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.773449−1.436027
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−6.136003−0.033884
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−12.9105590.265164
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−10.025907−1.465688
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.461583
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−10.025907−1.465636
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.452993
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−27.4877285.822275
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.464723
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.284101−1.384515
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−2.433065−0.226385
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−10.026598−0.976805
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.8771131.369531
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.452222
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.9383841.431588
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.6785001.107289
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.6785001.107289
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−18.8317612.847509
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.881411−0.781682
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.464625
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−27.4732870.374488
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−3.020103−0.255891
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−12.9105590.290812
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.9871200.206501
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.6785001.136627
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.461853
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−12.9105590.281325
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.452270
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−13.0956801.528909
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−10.025907−1.427941
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.579185
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.472617
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−6.4871770.651868
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.5501830.308472
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.468854
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.552279
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.750610−1.400611
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−12.8170460.281453
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.9871200.218711
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.0252070.552279
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−12.9105590.269698
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.458640
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.284101−1.397424
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.750610−1.429182
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.591677
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.458554
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.9871200.219707
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market7.727773−1.429811
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.593223
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.457723
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.8771131.377165
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.5802060.882407
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.284101−1.384515
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−6.5244790.305701
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−7.8514350.452270
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−9.773449−1.426969
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.9383840.126146
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−11.9871200.221615
Mirrored plain histories / Centre above market−8.8771131.240677
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market23.9626382.909668
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market17.4959500.507433
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−8.189299−0.980199
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market17.0890241.975755
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.689346−0.811030
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market16.7553502.595634
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market54.6382782.642215
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market16.3136442.041370
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market14.0409222.215704
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market23.8796580.458993
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−18.683630−1.003790
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market31.087733−1.437528
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market7.1287450.882645
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market16.7060150.316979
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−3.040360−0.495310
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−0.206689−2.235431
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.2393183.333805
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market10.7644880.367082
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−32.853047−0.548630
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−49.4789242.298839
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market24.1158904.983536
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market22.9976750.491083
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market3.418408−1.008685
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market15.4958280.469977
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market25.2555164.680521
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market25.2555164.680521
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market27.1842925.497518
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market7.257625−0.136683
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market55.5346530.852269
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market24.9787863.852021
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market23.5218500.229787
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market6.0950970.270931
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market17.7263552.420978
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−3.400590−2.480263
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market27.6649700.343236
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−16.622189−0.707441
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market20.2144354.088063
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market14.0321692.014171
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market6.3539330.154140
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.706784−0.149207
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.8474762.711739
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market9.0784171.664937
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market27.4004900.073730
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market6.2393310.523446
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.8474762.711739
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market23.3191050.211182
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market3.620523−0.679469
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market7.438699−0.217613
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market21.5084191.343109
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market1.498081−0.206874
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−47.5832802.149233
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−2.1851840.296062
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−17.059306−1.389952
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market23.2932494.402579
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−2.224921−0.939623
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−26.064456−1.099109
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market20.2914952.385548
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market14.149173−0.492062
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−16.622189−0.707441
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market24.1950103.538753
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market11.5306520.332519
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market2.5070070.379486
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−40.7181958.740577
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−53.26842711.910662
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−16.4243772.346078
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−53.11712812.344793
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market14.103100−0.817835
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−42.7531599.633335
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−5.5219350.766592
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market12.796922−1.168794
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market7.954317−2.241459
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market50.817055−0.533456
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market15.750859−2.305805
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market18.395910−1.919415
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market64.45980311.138960
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−16.8763910.952396
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market11.025787−1.711558
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market3.338775−1.308719
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market2.321519−0.635877
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market26.307178−2.260457
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−5.5219350.766592
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−53.11712812.344793
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market2.560455−1.603389
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−51.30462610.909897
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market72.2351382.756190
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market6.697829−0.850034
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market15.549989−2.429911
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−35.7834097.966012
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−33.9739555.684983
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−13.3727320.643966
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−46.4737960.581139
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market44.8089941.218051
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−46.87934210.652082
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−9.2359751.800007
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−59.5104140.625490
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−46.4737960.581139
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market9.0890480.908167
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market64.45980311.138960
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−3.356894−1.417217
Rising volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market16.120206−1.508009
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−27.638429−0.810160
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−11.374617−1.174061
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−32.225639−1.248234
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market48.68839810.427971
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market16.8170892.082121
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market50.14318310.955530
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−9.202243−1.356428
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market42.7518769.555639
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−3.181077−2.003227
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−12.796922−1.216297
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market18.8722142.291824
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−15.995112−2.617709
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−15.725512−2.429578
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−14.929143−2.202237
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−4.467588−0.694615
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market34.980370−0.636643
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−64.44493910.800735
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market3.876771−0.473222
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−3.855381−1.538634
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−2.281763−0.659673
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market19.6333412.531670
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−3.181077−2.003227
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market50.14318310.955530
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market8.0745941.479577
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−2.560455−1.381225
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market50.14599410.901724
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−6.954544−0.820780
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market35.6340797.776171
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market26.7075945.088775
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market13.2012080.597311
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market31.1536760.348724
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market49.3911550.513132
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−44.8089941.413011
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market11.849685−1.252895
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market9.3118271.947909
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market59.6720670.557530
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market49.3911550.513132
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−9.054198−1.490073
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market−64.44493910.800735
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre below market3.607371−0.030667
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−23.9201233.012236
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−16.8367220.439955
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market8.189299−0.918889
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−21.661713−1.220515
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−55.9233912.343712
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−16.5443741.850081
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−13.7733561.998344
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−23.8796580.478034
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market18.559339−1.077847
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−48.64952510.074577
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−7.0033970.705207
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−15.4780000.465788
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market23.135870−2.068530
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market2.567755−0.471278
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−2.231198−1.087071
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market1.861741−1.148834
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market49.4789242.765729
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−11.3217540.964709
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−45.7243018.874165
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−10.7259900.268941
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−14.9281680.407723
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−24.4779364.024665
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−24.4779364.024665
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market16.343246−1.148187
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−7.3462030.002378
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−55.5455540.762041
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−5.4664750.760614
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−23.7020910.344580
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−5.1361620.283427
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−17.2756892.168355
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−27.5346950.432243
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market16.630138−0.777410
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−19.6733783.745075
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−36.322651−0.180564
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−6.450475−0.930036
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−6.4142650.180631
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−18.687035−0.100202
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−10.0574630.028229
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−18.8506072.235498
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−12.7674231.705069
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−27.4399010.081337
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−6.2971010.572569
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−18.8506072.235498
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−23.1428200.215069
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−7.5547650.140561
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−21.5628421.481653
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−1.3416610.512833
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market47.4071561.980259
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market2.1851840.317506
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market17.420357−1.412260
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−23.2529834.454416
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market1.534571−1.058668
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market26.202382−1.130608
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−8.6814920.065369
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−13.968357−0.484105
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market16.630138−0.777410
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−25.172277−0.662992
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−11.2529220.330564
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market−2.4483690.372053
Mirrored volatility-scaled histories / Centre above market29.033116−1.146708
Reference line—0

H6 When the resettable floor runs out of budget

In these tests, the resettable floor ran short of budget mainly in pools that just started.

Measure: Share of tests with a serious detachment during the 30-day trend.

Compared: Keeping the resettable floor with switching to the deployed floor, from the same stuck state.

Same for both: The quiet period, the trend’s prices and every other setting.

Higher means: More tests lost a quarter of the depth at the market price for a day.

The resettable floor lets the pool spend recorded profit on re-pegs. It refuses a re-peg that would push virtual price down to 1. Virtual price is the pool’s accounting value per share. While its budget is spent, it blocks re-pegs like the deployed floor.

With budget left, it handled large trends

In 320 spliced tests, the pool faced the largest 30-day rise and largest 30-day fall in the recorded price history. Each came after 0 to 180 quiet days, sometimes straight after an earlier trend. No serious detachment followed. One trend’s gross repairs used 1.47 percentage points of virtual price on average. The worst 30 days used 2.80 percentage points.

Where it ran short

Refusals happened in 70 of 100 plain histories, but mostly in the first day. Virtual price starts at 1 in the simulator, so a new pool has no budget yet. After the first month, refusals happened in only 4 of 100 plain histories. They happened in 10 of 100 volatility-scaled histories. Of those pools, 13 first refused within 14.63 days of starting. One volatility-scaled pool first ran short on day 46.47.

Quiet trading did not always restore attachment

From those stuck pools, we added quiet trading, then a large trend. On plain histories, 30 quiet days were enough: no serious detachment followed. On volatility-scaled histories, 36.25% to 37.50% of tests had a serious episode during the trend, after 180 quiet days. Nearly all came from 4 of the 10 pools. Those pools were still detached when the trend began. These are mostly episodes carried over from before the trend. The deployed floor did as badly or worse in the same tests.

Each panel starts from pools that refused a repair after their first month: 4 plain and 10 volatility-scaled pools. Each pool contributes 16 tests, with hourly shifts in the trend’s start. Pools receive equal weight.

Solid lines use the largest rise. Dashed lines use its mirrored fall. Both floors start from the same stuck state. A serious episode can already be open when the trend begins.

Only 4 and 10 pools reached this state, so these shares are rough.

More detail: waiting and spending

The tests use the proposal, original EMA half-lives and 1.20% annual donations. Each stuck pool was copied before applying the two different floors.

From the first refusal in each history, the next re-peg came after a median of 60 minutes on plain histories. The volatility-scaled median was 25 minutes. These medians use 70 and 76 histories. All reached a next re-peg.

For the pools refusing after their first month, the next re-peg came after a median of 39 hours on plain histories. The volatility-scaled median was 14 hours. These medians use 4 and 10 pools. All reached a next re-peg.

A first re-peg does not mean the pool stays attached through the next trend. The spending sizes above are observations, not a tested spending limit.

Chart data · Serious detachment after quiet trading
% of tests (pools × hourly start shifts)
Panel / curveCoordinate · Quiet trading before the trend, days% of tests (pools × hourly start shifts)Tests per trend (pools × hourly start shifts)
Plain histories / Resettable floor · rise0100.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · rise796.8864
Plain histories / Resettable floor · rise300.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · rise900.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · rise1800.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · fall075.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · fall775.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · fall300.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · fall900.0064
Plain histories / Resettable floor · fall1800.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · rise0100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · rise7100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · rise306.2564
Plain histories / Deployed floor · rise900.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · rise1800.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · fall0100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · fall7100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · fall30100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · fall90100.0064
Plain histories / Deployed floor · fall180100.0064
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · rise081.25160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · rise770.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · rise3055.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · rise9046.25160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · rise18036.25160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · fall070.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · fall770.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · fall3055.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · fall9046.88160
Volatility-scaled histories / Resettable floor · fall18037.50160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · rise084.38160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · rise780.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · rise3062.50160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · rise9052.50160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · rise18046.88160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · fall098.75160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · fall799.38160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · fall30100.00160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · fall9099.38160
Volatility-scaled histories / Deployed floor · fall18099.38160

H7 Who carries each bet

LPs and the YB holder carry the bet. Traders pay during stalls.

Measure: Who holds the market position, pays interest or receives worse quotes.

Compared: The pool’s shareholders, its borrowing holder, traders and the DAO.

Same for both: The pool settings and market move being considered.

Higher means: The measured cost or position is larger for the named party.

WhoWhat they carryMeasured size
LPsThe pool’s position, through the value of each shareThe position gains or loses as prices move
YB holderThe same position at about 2 times the size, because the holder borrowsBorrowing increases the size of the bet
YB holder, as payer of donation interestInterest paid for re-peg budget; most comes back over timeAccounting comparisons are shown below
TradersWorse quotes while the pool stallsLarge extra quoted cost: 192.15 bp to buy; 210.14 bp to sell
The DAONo share of pool fees, because the admin fee is zeroAdmin fee: 0%

The quote test uses an order worth 0.50% of the pool’s value at that time. The current rule keeps the pool’s own fee and controller. Its financing is the shared comparison bundle, not the deployed one. That bundle means 42.913386% reserved profit and a 1.50% LevAMM fee.

The low donation rate is 1.20% per year. These are extra quoted costs, not realised customer costs. See the test-order comparison.

Returned value against interest

The next table compares two financing bundles under current price rules. It divides the returned value forgone by the interest saved. The figures average these ratios across starting dates.

The 60- and 90-day figures use one effective market window.

Time after the changeReturned value forgone ÷ interest saved
7 days20.03%
30 days68.13%
60 days82.95%
90 days90.16%

In a separate full-history test, returned value was about 97.02% of gross interest. This used the faster-tracking setting with the resettable floor.

In the current-rule tests, a supplied re-peg would be refused through 99.87% of serious-episode time at 1.20% donations. At 6.00% donations, it would be refused through 99.71% of serious-episode time. These tests use plain histories and the shared financing bundle. See the budget test.

H8 What a convincing selection shows

A convincing parameter choice names its promise and tests both price directions.

Measure: Evidence that a parameter choice meets its stated promise.

Compared: A small set of settings, including the current ones.

Same for both: Named outcomes, spending limits, service standards and market tests.

A convincing selection does seven things:

  • It names its promise. Whose outcome counts, in which currency and over what time. It also names a spending limit and a service standard for traders.
  • It compares a small set of settings, including the current ones. It changes one setting at a time where it can.
  • It tests every kind of market: rising, falling, reversing and calm. It uses both families of rebuilt histories and the older history.
  • It holds the service standard on both families. Our tests used serious detachment in at most 5.00% of years at 95% confidence. They also used at most 0.50% of the time.
  • It shows results across market conditions, including losses. An average over rising histories can reward a directional position. The evaluation states the rule it uses to compare those outcomes.
  • It allows the answer “no setting qualifies”. On our tests, that is today’s answer. See the donation tests.
  • It shows a profile, not one number. The profile states the bet, its payoff, who pays the premium and the service results. It states what later evidence would count against the claimed benefit.

The post chose settings by average holder growth on one history. See the concern about choosing settings.

H9 Profiles of the tested settings

Each tested setting has a profile: its bet, its premium and its service.

Measure: Gross holder interest and first serious-detachment probability.

Compared: The deployed settings, the proposal and two resettable-floor settings.

Same for both: Full rebuilt histories, with the named bundle and bootstrap family.

Higher means: More interest paid, or more initially attached paths developing serious detachment.

The table separates the bet, funding and service. Missing measurements stay marked as untested. Quoted trader costs from different settings are not substituted.

SettingThe betGross interest, % starting holder equity/yearFirst serious episode within a year: plainFirst serious episode within a year: volatility-scaledOn drift-free historiesTrader cost during serious detachment
Deployed current settingsWait for the price to come backNot priced for this exact financing bundle81.00% (100 histories)100.00% (100 histories)Not tested for this exact financing bundle.Not tested for this exact bundle
The post as proposedLess budget, with the deployed floorNot priced for this exact bundle53.00% (100 histories)100.00% (100 histories)Plain: 97.66%; “almost never”: no. Volatility-scaled: 99.61%; “almost never”: no.Not tested for this exact bundle
Post, resettable floor, halved EMA half-lives; 1.20% donationsFollow a move sooner2.28%2.73% (256 histories)6.64% (256 histories)Plain: 0.39%; “almost never”: yes. Volatility-scaled: 5.86%; “almost never”: no.Not tested for this exact bundle
Post, resettable floor, original EMA half-lives; 1.60% donationsFollow a move with a reset floor3.04%2.73% (256 histories)8.98% (256 histories)Plain: 1.17%; “almost never”: yes. Volatility-scaled: 6.25%; “almost never”: no.Not tested for this exact bundle

The new column gives the chance of a first serious episode by day 365. It also shows whether both “almost never” tests pass. Each measured drift-free cell uses 256 histories with the shared comparison financing bundle.

The common-financing current-rule control uses 5% donations, 42.913386% reserved profit and a 1.50% LevAMM fee. It uses 256 histories. Its first serious-episode probabilities within a year are plain 64.84% and volatility-scaled 98.05%. Neither passes “almost never”.

The rising columns name their samples in each cell. The deployed row uses deployed financing. The proposal and both resettable-floor rows use the shared comparison financing. The proposal’s rising sample is the first 100 parents of its 256-history comparison.

The interest means use 100 paired histories over full 556-day paths. They are annualised. Most interest returns: about 97.02% for halved EMA half-lives and 97.01% for original half-lives.

The separate common-financing control pays gross interest of 9.72% of starting holder equity per year. Its donation rate is 5% per year. Its reserved profit fraction is 42.91%, rather than the deployed WETH reference’s protected fraction. The settings page explains that distinction.

The separate low-donation current-rule quote test adds 192.15 bp to buy and 210.14 bp to sell. For the proposal at 2.50% donations, extra quoted costs are 12.80 bp to buy and 16.89 bp to sell. Both use orders worth 0.50% of pool value. The proposal test uses the resettable floor and halved EMA half-lives.

The quoted trader costs use other bundles. The detachment tests define serious episodes and both service limits.

Concerns about the evidence

These concerns separate what the tests measure from what they leave untested.

Settings chosen on one history

Assumed. The parameter search ranks settings on one market history.

Found. On data the search did not use, the chosen settings show no reliable advantage in YB-position growth. YB-position growth is growth in the holder’s wealth after debt. The alternatives share the donation rate and the fraction of recorded profit protected from spending. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. Chosen settings gain against alternatives sharing the donation rate and the protected fraction of recorded profit. The test uses market periods left out of the selection.

Found. On the team’s tested grid, holder growth closely followed changes in the ETH value of leftover crvUSD, after debt. See the evidence.

Financing inside the headline score

Assumed. LP/xyk compares a share’s growth with a fee-free reference pool. The score subtracts the charge for capital supplied through donated shares.

Found. In WETH tests that start from recorded pool states, the proposal’s smaller donation charge raises early LP/xyk. WETH is a token representing ETH, Ethereum’s asset. Growth in the market value of each share is lower than under current settings. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. The test reports growth in the market value of each share beside LP/xyk. The test also reports the holder’s wealth. Donations and returned value are each counted separately.

Trading supplied to the simulator

Assumed. Arbitrage-only runs simulate arbitrage and the YB holder. Arbitrage trades profit from price differences between markets. Those runs omit other user activity. A ping supplies a recorded user-operation time without copying that user’s asset transfer.

Found. Replaying recorded user operations improves on the price-path formula over the same monthly WETH windows. For these centred WETH windows, the reference formula uses squared logarithmic price moves. The general formula also accounts for the pool’s opening holdings. Pings add almost nothing on those windows. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. The proposal’s simulation setup has lower squared prediction error than the formula for identical starting states and periods. Those states and periods were not used to choose the settings.

Small errors in the inputs

Assumed. One supplied set of inputs sets each run’s path. The inputs are token valuations, price reports and operation times. A price report is a message that carries an outside price.

Found. On the same WBTC history, reruns with plausible input errors change the proposal’s stall classification. A stall is a large, lasting gap between the pool’s centre price, price_scale, and the market price. WBTC is a Bitcoin token on Ethereum. The classification under current settings stays fixed across those reruns. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. Return and stall results keep the same interpretation under plausible input errors. Those results keep the same interpretation on unused market periods.

Customer choices

Assumed. The replay copies customer activity that was recorded. The replay does not estimate choices under changed quotes. The customer-response page describes this limit. The same limit is shared across this field of research.

Found. The test uses WETH trades at the sizes that were recorded. The proposal gives a worse median execution price than deployed current settings. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. A model of customer choices reproduces where orders go, their size, their timing and changes in liquidity. The check uses observations left out of the fit.

The profit floor and financing

Assumed. The gate preserves a cumulative floor in the pool’s internal accounts. Cumulative means the protected profit is carried forward. Donations help pay for re-pegs. A re-peg moves the pool’s centre price.

Found. Removing that floor shortens the September stalls. On the same Bitcoin path, growth in the market value of each WBTC pool share rises. For cbBTC, that growth falls. cbBTC is another token representing Bitcoin. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. The comparison varies financing and spending rules together. It measures wealth at market prices and stall duration across trends, reversals and wrong reference prices.

Price reports sent to the policy

Assumed. The tests supply each report’s time and price. A report is a message that carries an outside reference price. Some periods have no recorded report. For those periods the test uses a generated report.

Found. The tests change only the price rule. Financing stays fixed. The policy receives no price reports. The uncertainty intervals for the return difference include both gains and losses. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. The measured gain remains under the report times that were observed. The gain also remains under plausible delivery errors. Generated inputs are checked against real reports.

Detachment on other histories

Assumed. The history used to tune the settings is only one arrangement of market moves.

Found. Serious detachment means too little trading depth remains at the market price. Some settings pass its rarity limits on plain rebuilt histories. These settings use a resettable floor, which lowers the protected threshold after an allowed move below it. The settings fail when each move is scaled to the volatility of its new date. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. Depth and growth results stay comparable on unused periods. The results also stay comparable when histories are rebuilt in several ways.

Two common beliefs about harvesting

Assumed. Two common beliefs predict larger gains from harvesting.

Found. Misunderstanding 1. “The new parameters make the pool harvest more volatility.”

What is true. Holding equal value in each asset maximises harvesting. Near that balance, tighter tracking barely changes the gain.

Misunderstanding 2. “Concentrated liquidity multiplies the harvesting gain.”

What is true. Concentration makes the pool buy and sell larger amounts after price moves. The harvesting premium stays about the same size as in an ordinary pool. (evidence).

A convincing test would show. One comparison uses the same price path and financing. It separates harvesting from gains or losses caused by the asset mix, losses on trades, and fees.

What the evidence supports

Measure: growth in the market value of each pool share, in percentage points per year.

Compared: the full proposal with deployed current settings.

Same for both: observed WETH starting states, market prices and recorded operation times.

Higher means: the share’s market value grew faster.

The full proposal’s growth is lower at every reported horizon. The early LP/xyk advantage comes from lower financing. LP/xyk subtracts the charge for donations actually supplied. The tested comparisons show a higher risk of stalls.

Common misunderstandings

Each entry states a common belief, what our tests found and where the evidence is.

How pools earn

Read the evidence: A1 What a pool share is worth.

Read the evidence: A3 What contributed to the live pools’ returns.

Read the evidence: B1 How rebalancing earns a gain.

Read the evidence: B1 How rebalancing earns a gain.

Read the evidence: B3 How fees repay the trading loss.

Read the evidence: B5 Two common misunderstandings about harvesting.

Read the evidence: B5 Two common misunderstandings about harvesting.

The profit floor and detachment

Read the evidence: F1 The profit floor guards the books, then locks the pool.

Read the evidence: F2 Removing the floor in September.

Read the evidence: G3 The directional bet decides the live stall outcome.

Read the evidence: G4 Repairing a detached pool needs capital.

Read the evidence: G4 Repairing a detached pool needs capital.

Read the evidence: G6 Staying attached does not reliably raise wealth.

The proposal and its tests

Read the evidence: C3 Small input errors can change whether the pool stalls.

Read the evidence: C3 Small input errors can change whether the pool stalls.

Read the evidence: C4 How customers respond remains an open problem.

Read the evidence: C4 How customers respond remains an open problem.

Read the evidence: D1 Why one price history is not enough.

Read the evidence: D1 Why one price history is not enough.

Read the evidence: E1 The proposal’s original test and its separate changes.

Read the evidence: E2 The early gain comes from changing financing.

Read the evidence: E4 Selected settings on unused and older data.

Choosing parameters (chapter H)

Read the evidence: H1 A re-peg setting is a bet on whether a move lasts.

Read the evidence: H1 A re-peg setting is a bet on whether a move lasts.

Read the evidence: H2 What each setting bets on.

Read the evidence: H3 Returns on the team’s tested grid.

Read the evidence: H3 Returns on the team’s tested grid.

Read the evidence: H4 The gate on histories with no built-in direction.

Read the evidence: H6 When the resettable floor runs out of budget.

Read the evidence: H7 Who carries each bet.

Glossary

Each entry defines one term used on this site.

  • A highlighted term opens its entry.
  • Hovering over the term shows the same words.
  • A difference in returns is stated in percentage points per year (pp/yr).
  • An LP return measures the value of one pool share.
  • An LP is an owner of pool shares.
  • A YB-position return is the holder’s ETH or BTC wealth left after crvUSD debt.
  • ETH and BTC are the risky assets in these pools.
  • crvUSD is the stablecoin owed as debt.
Ablation
An ablation compares a group of changes with versions that leave some of those changes out. The comparison shows which changes account for the result.
Almost never
“Almost never” means a tested setting passes both limits. The one-sided Wilson upper bound, an upper confidence limit, is at most 5.00% for first serious onset by day 365. The bound uses 95% confidence. Average time below serious depth is at most 0.50% over 556 days.

First-onset counts use paths that start outside the tier. See episode counting.
AMM (automated market maker)
An automated market maker holds assets and quotes a price for each trade. The quotes follow programmed rules.
Amplification
Amplification controls how concentrated the pool’s trading is. At the same pool value, a larger setting gives more depth near price_scale, the pool’s centre price. That larger setting can also remove more of that depth when the market moves away.
Annualised return
An annualised return divides a window’s log change by the window’s length in years. To find log change, first divide end value by start value. Then take the natural logarithm of that ratio. The site’s rate convention puts windows of different lengths on the same scale.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage is a trade that earns a profit from a price difference between markets.
Arbitrage fees
Arbitrage fees are the trading fees that arbitrage traders pay into the pool.
Baseline
A baseline is a simple prediction used as a reference. A more detailed model is judged against that prediction.
Basis point
A basis point, written bp, is one hundredth of a percentage point.
Blockchain block
A blockchain block is a group of transactions recorded together on the blockchain.
Book value
Book value is the pool’s internal accounting value per share. Its calculation uses the invariant, a value identifying the pool’s reserve curve. The calculation adjusts that value using price_scale, the pool’s central price.
Bootstrap
A bootstrap rebuilds a sample by drawing from the observed data. Each draw puts the chosen piece back, so that piece can appear again.
BTC
BTC denotes Bitcoin, the risky asset in these pools. Wrapper tokens are the on-chain stand-ins for that Bitcoin.
Burn
A burn removes LP shares from the supply. An LP share is one unit of ownership in the pool. Each remaining share then owns a larger fraction of the pool.
cbBTC
cbBTC is the Bitcoin token issued by Coinbase on Ethereum.
Cell
A cell is one combination of settings in the grid the team searched.
Centred pool
A centred pool holds equal market value in cash and in the risky asset. Market value uses prices from outside the pool.
Concentrated liquidity
Concentrated liquidity places more trading capacity near the pool’s reference price. The reference price is the price the pool centres on. A small price move then changes the pool’s holdings by more.
Concentration factor
The concentration factor compares trading depth with an equal-value constant-product pool’s depth at the same price. Divide the first depth by the second. A constant-product pool keeps the product of its two asset quantities fixed. A larger factor means a small price move trades more of the reserves.
Confidence interval
A confidence interval shows the sampling uncertainty in a stated mean or probability. A wider interval means that quantity is estimated less precisely.
Constant-product benchmark (xyk)
The constant-product benchmark is a reference pool that trades without fees. The product of its two asset quantities stays constant. The benchmark starts with equal market value in each asset.
crvUSD
crvUSD is the stablecoin these pools use as cash. A stablecoin is a token meant to hold a steady value. The same token is the debt in these pools.
Curvature-exposure gap

Measure: estimated extra loss before fees for the centred pool, in percentage points of pool value.

Compared: that centred pool with the actual off-centre pool.

Same for both: the prices, the pool value and the curve shape.

Higher means: less trading depth in the actual pool at the market price.

The model assumes arbitrageurs correct every price move immediately. It ignores trading fees. The estimate does not measure money either pool actually gained or lost. Off-centre means the two assets have unequal market value.
DAO
DAO stands for decentralised autonomous organisation. That community governs the protocol.
Depth retained

Measure: trading depth at the market price, as a percentage of centred depth.

Compared: this pool with an equally funded pool centred on the market.

Same for both: the curve shape, with trading fees left out.

Higher means: more of the centred pool’s depth remains at the market.

Detachment
Detachment means price_scale stays far enough from the market that the pool loses depth there. price_scale is the price the pool centres on. The lost depth is trading depth at the market price.
Detachment tier
A detachment tier names how much depth remains against an equal-value centred pool. The names are warning, serious and severe. Lower retained depth means the same small order moves the price more. The tier table gives the thresholds.
Directional bet
The directional part of return comes from the risky asset’s share of market value. The reference is equal value in the two assets. Holding more than half in that asset helps when its price rises. It hurts when the price falls.

Holding less than half does the opposite.
Donation
A donation supplies capital from outside the pool. The pool mints designated LP shares for that capital. Those shares can be burned without taking their assets out. The assets then remain for the other shareholders.
Donation burn
A donation burn removes donated LP shares from supply. Their assets stay in the pool. Each remaining share then owns more of those assets.
Drift-free history
From one hour boundary to the next, the average of the possible next prices equals today's price. Random signs and a correction create this. Moves within an hour can still reveal that hour’s direction.
Effective market window
Effective market windows estimate how many independent price stretches a test contains. The estimate allows for overlap between the test’s starting dates.
Episode
A depth episode is a run below a named depth threshold. The run lasts at least 24 uninterrupted hours. The episode is dated from the run’s start. Runs that each qualify are joined when the recovery between them lasts less than 24 hours.
ETH
ETH is the native asset of the Ethereum network, that network’s own coin.
Executable donation
An executable donation is a simulated deposit that makes a named re-peg affordable after a stated wait. A re-peg moves the pool’s centre price. The deposit follows rules for creating shares, locking them and limiting how many donated shares can exist. The repair test states the target and waiting time.
Execution cost
Execution cost is how much worse a trade’s price is than the outside market price. The cost includes fees. The unit is basis points of the order’s value. A larger cost means the buyer pays more or the seller receives less.
Exponential moving average (EMA)
An exponential moving average smooths prices by giving older prices less weight. The half-life is the time for one observation’s weight to fall by half.
External mark
The external mark is a reference price from outside the pool. The tests use it to value assets and trades.
Fee band
The fee band is the range around the market price where arbitrage does not pay. Inside the band, the price advantage is too small to cover the fee. The band applies on both sides of the market price.
Financing
Financing is outside capital supplied through donations. The YB holder pays the interest that funds these donations. LP/xyk, the share’s growth score against a reference pool, subtracts the charge for that capital. The holder’s own net return also counts value returned through the pool.
First-onset probability
First-onset probability is the share of paths whose first qualifying episode starts by a stated day. Only paths that start outside the tier are counted. A larger share means more of those paths develop an episode.
Funded attached pool
A funded attached pool is a simulated pool held at the market centre. The pool receives the same prices, chances to update and price reports as its control. The return includes reserve funding, withdrawals and execution charges. Reserve funding is capital added to keep the pool at the centre.
Headroom
Headroom equals virtual price divided by the protected profit floor, minus one. Virtual price is the pool’s internal accounting index per share. A larger positive value means a larger accounting buffer for re-pegs. A re-peg moves the pool’s centre price.
Held-out test
A held-out test scores a choice on data that were left out when the choice was made.
Impermanent loss
Impermanent loss is the shortfall of a fee-free constant-product pool against holding its starting coins. Both sides are valued at the comparison price.
Input-noise ensemble
An input-noise ensemble repeats one history many times. Each repeat uses a different small measurement error that could plausibly have occurred. Each run is one of those repeats.
Invariant
The invariant is a value that identifies the reserve curve used by the pool’s pricing rule. Before fees, a swap moves the reserves along that curve.
Inventory
Inventory is the set of assets the pool holds.
LevAMM
LevAMM is the contract that manages the debt-financed YB position. That position holds pool shares and owes debt. LevAMM adjusts the borrowing and the pool shares.
Liquidity depth
Liquidity depth measures how much can trade for a small price change. At a stated price, more depth means the same order moves the price less.
Liquidity pool
A liquidity pool holds assets that traders can buy or sell. The pool’s rules set the prices of those trades.
Log growth
First divide the end value by the start value. Take the natural logarithm of that ratio. Log growth divides this result by the time that passed. Larger log growth means faster growth in proportion to wealth.
Log return
First divide the end value by the start value. The natural logarithm of that ratio is the log return. Log returns add across periods that follow one another.
LP
An LP is a liquidity provider. The provider owns shares in a liquidity pool.
LP/xyk
LP/xyk starts from yearly log growth in the market value of one LP share. Subtract the reference pool’s yearly log growth on the same price path.

The reference charges no trading fees. Its trades keep the product of its two asset quantities fixed. It starts with equal market value in both assets.

Then subtract the charge for donations actually supplied during that period, using the same yearly log-growth scale. A positive value means the share beats the reference after that charge. The score uses percentage points per year.
lp_xcp_profit
lp_xcp_profit stores the protected accounting value of one share. The re-peg checks compare that value with virtual price. Virtual price is the pool’s internal accounting index per share. A re-peg updates the pool’s centre price.
LT
LT is the YieldBasis liquidity token. Deposits and withdrawals change the capital the YB position manages.
LVR
LVR is the shortfall from trading the pool’s reserves at a stale pool price. A stale price is the pool’s old quote, not the current outside price. The shortfall is measured before fees. Larger LVR means more value was transferred by those trades.
Market value
Market value is what the pool’s actual assets are worth. The prices come from outside the pool.
Market-valued LP measure (M)
M compares the market value of one pool share with a fee-free reference pool. The reference pool’s value follows the square root of the risky asset’s price. M divides the share’s market value by that price factor. Growth in M means the share beat the reference pool before the donation charge.
Missed harvesting
Harvesting is the rebalancing part of return.

Measure: equal-value harvesting minus harvesting at the mix the pool held, in percentage points of pool value.

Compared: equal value in the two assets with the mix the pool actually held.

Same for both: the prices.

Higher means: the drift from equal value gave up more harvesting.

Native flow
Native flow is trading and liquidity that arrives for a reason other than arbitrage. Arbitrage means earning a profit from a price gap.
Off-centre
An off-centre pool holds unequal market value in its two assets. Market value uses prices from outside the pool.
Oracle
An oracle supplies reference prices from outside the pool.
Origin
An origin is the start date and the recorded pool state a simulation starts from.
Payoff diagram
A payoff diagram charts what a choice gains or loses against the price move that follows it.
Percentage point
A percentage point is the difference between two percentage rates.
Ping
A ping lets the simulated pool update at a recorded user-operation time. The ping does not copy that user’s transfer of assets. Simulated arbitrage can still change the balances. Simulated activity in the YB position can still change the balances too.
Price impact
Price impact is the change in the execution price that comes from the size of a trade.
price_scale
price_scale is the pool’s internal centre price. The pool concentrates its liquidity near that price.
Quartile
Quartiles divide a sorted set of observations into four groups of equal size. The lower and upper quartiles enclose the middle half of the observations.
QV (quadratic variation)
Quadratic variation adds the squares of changes in the log price. The changes are taken at the stated sampling frequency. Squaring means a rise and a fall do not cancel.
Rank correlation
Rank correlation measures how far two rankings agree. Zero means no overall linear association between their ranks. Positive one means the rankings are in the same order.
Re-centre
A pool re-centres when price_scale moves back near the outside market price. price_scale is the pool’s centre price.
Re-peg
A re-peg moves price_scale, the pool’s centre price. The move changes the pool’s internal valuation. The move does not itself transfer coins.
Recognised gain (recognised return)
Recognised return is yearly log growth in virtual price, the pool’s internal index. The measure then subtracts the charge for donations actually supplied, using the same yearly log-growth scale. The unit is percentage points per year (pp/yr). A larger value means the internal index grew faster after that charge.
Repair requirement
The repair requirement is the smallest top-up that lets the named price-centre move pass the named gate. Both reserve assets increase by the same percentage. The profit floor, LP supply and unlocked shares stay fixed.

The requirement is a percentage of the pool’s current value at market prices. A larger figure means a larger accounting shortfall.
Replay
A replay runs known inputs through the simulator again. Historical replay copies user operations that were recorded. Simulation replay reruns a history the simulator generated earlier.
Report
A report is a message sent to the pool’s policy. The message carries a reference price from outside the pool.
Report delivery
Report delivery sends reference-price messages to the policy. The policy can then use those outside prices.
Resampling block
A resampling block is a consecutive stretch of time copied together when a history is rebuilt.
Reserved profit fraction
The reserved profit fraction is the share of cumulative recorded profit that re-pegs must keep. A higher fraction leaves less of that profit free to move price_scale. price_scale is the pool’s centre price.
Resettable floor
After an allowed re-peg crosses the old protected profit threshold, the experimental rule lowers it to the new virtual price. Later attempts must still pass the initial profit check. Virtual price must stay above 1.
Service standard
A service standard states a limit on how often, and how long, the pool may be seriously detached.
Skill
Skill is the share of a reference prediction’s squared error removed by the model. The reference is the stated baseline, a simpler prediction.
Squared error
Squared error is the square of the gap between a prediction and the observed outcome. In a skill score, that error is the average over the scored windows.
Stall
A stall is a gap between price_scale and the market that exceeds the limits in the shared stall rule. price_scale is the pool’s centre price. The limits cover the size of the gap and how long it lasts.
Standard error
A standard error measures uncertainty in an estimated mean. The measure uses the sampling method stated with the estimate. A larger standard error means a less precise mean.
tBTC
tBTC is the Threshold network’s token for Bitcoin on Ethereum.
Unlabelled contracts
Unlabelled contracts are trading contracts. The study’s activity labels did not name their purpose.
UTC
UTC is Coordinated Universal Time. Every date and window on this site uses that clock.
Virtual price
Virtual price is the pool’s internal accounting index per share. The invariant is a value identifying the pool’s reserve curve. The figure is normalised with price_scale, the pool’s centre price. The profit gate uses this internal index.
VirtualPool
VirtualPool is a contract that routes trades involving the YB pool.
Volatility
Volatility measures the size of price fluctuations. Annual volatility is the square root of price-return variance, stated per year.
Volatility clock
The volatility clock adds squared log-price changes over the stated period. A larger total means the pool experienced more market movement.
Volatility harvesting
Volatility harvesting is the rebalancing part of return from repeatedly restoring chosen asset-value weights at market prices. At equal value in cash and the risky asset, it is the log-growth advantage over a fee-free constant-product pool. The pool and that benchmark follow the same price path. The worked example explains why this differs from holding the opening coins.
Volatility-scaled bootstrap
A volatility-scaled bootstrap keeps each sampled move’s direction. The bootstrap scales that move’s size by volatility on the new date compared with the source date. The scaling changes when turbulent stretches occur. The scaling also changes the cumulative price path.
WBTC
WBTC is a token for Bitcoin on Ethereum, backed by coins a custodian holds.
WETH
WETH is the token form of ETH used by these pools.
Wilson upper bound
A Wilson upper bound is an upper confidence limit for an event’s probability. The inputs are the event count and the number of eligible paths. Fewer observations generally leave more room above the observed share.
Wrapper token
A wrapper token is a token built to stand for another asset on this blockchain.
xcp_profit
The xcp_profit counter adds internal gains earned between re-pegs. A re-peg updates price_scale, the pool’s centre price. The counter does not subtract losses recorded at that update. The gate uses that profit history to set the protected accounting level.
YB position
The YB position owns LP shares and owes crvUSD debt. crvUSD is the stablecoin used as that debt. Net wealth is the outside value of the shares minus the debt. The result is expressed in the pool’s risky asset.